How to play when we get there with our flush? (1 Viewer)

[thinkinaboutu]

Let’s say we’re heads up OOP co vs button, we opened 15 Btn called

We have 87d

Flop comes J92 two diamonds

We check, Btn bets 25, we call
Turn 4c, check, he bets 60 we call

River 6d, what do we do?

Basically I feel like if we come out and bet it’s a bit obvious we hit our flush, if we check, he’s prolly just checking back. I guess bet small?

 

[RocAFella1]

Overbet

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Let’s say we’re heads up OOP co vs button, we opened 15 Btn called

We have 87d

Flop comes J92 two diamonds

We check, Btn bets 25, we call
Turn 4c, check, he bets 60 we call

River 6d, what do we do?

Basically I feel like if we come out and bet it’s a bit obvious we hit our flush, if we check, he’s prolly just checking back. I guess bet small?

A good way of deciding what/how/when to bet is targeting something. What do you think he gets here with? He takes the betting lead on flop; we can rule out overpairs, he'd probably raise you, right? Start figuring out what he might have and it becomes clearer what we should bet.

If you're betting small, what do you want to call you? JT? J9? Would he bet like this with a set of deuces or 9s or something? Talk to us, goose.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero skips all the hand until the river. So many river options are constrained by how the rest of the hand was played. A multi-street discussion would have been worthwhile. We also don't know the stakes, the stack sizes or the number of players at the table. No table read. Is blind stealing a significant thing at the table?

As played - - - Let's try to judge is our villain. Is he observant? What sort of style does he play? Lots of questions are hard to even answer without knowing the stakes, stack sizes etc.

Hero's line looks strange. Opened preflop, check called flop and turn, and then on the river (as yet to be determined). I'd say Hero's line is polarized, it looks like a bluff or a monster. Herd to understand why Hero would have given up the betting lead with a flush draw. And why does Hero wake up on the scare card if he doesn't have the flush.

I think the post flop was likely poorly played leading to this river situation. Depending on lots of unknown factors I could make a case for 1) a bluffy over bet or 2) a "blocker" bet hoping to safely extract some value or 3) a check-call line to minimize risk / induce a bluff. No telling which one is better without a fuller understanding of the situation.

 

[WedgeRock]

There is no one way to play this. It really depends on your opponent. A non-thinker may call you down with an over pair. Or, opponent may have flopped a straight draw and isn't putting another cent in the pot now that he missed.

I will say, tho, I've won a lot of pots betting OOP when the third flush card hits the board (even if I don't have the flush).

Here, you don't have a big flush. You should be happy if you're not called by a bigger flush.

Check-call this hand.

 

[Kentucky]

After the double barrel turn Villain is pretty polarized. He should have a good made hand or junk/a good draw. The flushing card arrives and Villain’s Axdd now look pretty good, his Jx less so. I think it’s reasonable to assume that checked to Jx will take showdown and flushes will bet. QTo may also go for the bluff.

Per @DrStrange a probe bet on this nut changing card re-polarizes our range. Size wise, as @NotRealNameNoSir suggests we’re looking to be called by a curious J. You could take this line and fold to a raise or maybe go bigger if you didn’t have the flush but elected to turn another hand into a bluff - make sure even that curious J folded.
If it goes x/x you’re probably best, but what’s the plan if we check and face a pot-sized bet? Is an 8 high flush a bluff catcher at that point?
Might be simpler to put out a 75-100 bet, but maybe I’m too nitty.

 

[4betfold]

Yeah, kinda a classic spot. The river is a bit tricky because our hand is pretty face up if we lead big, but checking risks missing value.
I like a small donk lead here — something like 30-40% pot. It allows villain to call wider with worse hands (maybe some Jx, two pairs, even stubborn overpairs) and gives him room to spaz occasionally. If we check, we risk him checking back a lot of hands that would have called a small bet.
If villain’s aggressive and capable of bluffing missed draws, you could mix in some checks to induce, but vs most, small value bet is probably best.

 

[Legend5555]

I don't know why as the opener we are checking this flop with a combo draw. By not being flop, we are limiting our multi street bluffing opportunities. We have a good candidate to go 3 streets bluffing: a hand with lots of equity but no showdown value.

Villain didn't 3 bet pre, so the best hands he can have are AJ, 22, and sometimes 99 if he doesn't 3 bet that B vs CO. If we just come out and bet half pot or less and he just calls, he is immediately capped to top pair and draws. If he raises, then it's likely top two or a set and we can evaluate sizing and stacks sizes to determine what to do.

As played this is why playing OOP, especially with draws, caps your wins with big hands. You are forced to lead this river. Your hand isn't really strong enough to check raise because you can't get called by worse when you do it. And moreover, almost NOBODY check raise bluffs the river.

If you are going to check this flop, I'd prefer a check raise. You can have 22, 99, JJ, J9, QQ+. Your opponent can't have JJ+. And you can put max pressure on top pair and better draws.

 

[ToTheMax]

Agree with legend, flop play sets us up for tough turn and river.

Further, on the flop, we should play our hands similar to how we’d place AA-JJ, AJ, etc. if we don’t appear to be protecting against a draw, it’s very hard to get value when we get there.

Lastly, not to pile on, but turn play is also challenging. If we elect to check / call there, we should have a plan of attack for river. I don’t hate the check / call, but would only do so if I was willing to bluff some missed rivers. If you have a tight image, I think a crai is a really tough play to respond to for villain.

 

[mdt11]

Flop comes J92

Look at that sweet baby there

 

[DogSizedTardigrade]

As others have said, hard to know the full context of the hand. Stack sizes are very important in this spot with the relatively large sizing for the villain on the flop and turn bets. Tendencies of the players are also in play. But in a vacuum, the line that you have described isn't as bad as others might think. I think most importantly is noting what 2 diamonds rolled off on the flop. Jd9d2c based off the line could make up a very different range of villain then Jc9d2d

Let's start with preflop. Without stack sizes in play I am going to assume that this is 100BB and that you are playing 2-5, since a 15 bb open is some pretty wild texas stuff at a classic 1-2 or 1-3 game. Let's also assume you are 9 handed (wouldn't change that much with a CO and Button range, but still). And lastly we will assume that villain is a competent reg, no nitty OMC or loose aggressive nonsense. 9d8d is a fine open from the CO for 3bb. Villain's calling range in this format if they do not raise us preflop we rule out TT+ and a lot of high suited broadways. Mostly they have ragged aces, low suited aces (assuming they call those at a high frequency and don't 3-bet them IP), marginal broadways, middling suited connectors, and 99-. We opened for 3bb, 7.5bb in the pot, with 92.5 behind

I will preface this with the note that I have been watching and employing a lot of Hungry Horse's poker strategy and the check OOP on the flop is not out of the question. It let's us see what range of hands villain has. Let's assume the flop is Jd9d2c, as that looks better for your hand vs a button calling range (Rules out a higher flush draw with top pair i.e. QdJd, JdTd, etc.). With this range our middling suited connector has a lot of equity with a flush draw and gutshot and doesn't want to get blown off the hand if we face a check raise with the top of villains range or a bluff. So a check does make a lot of sense here. You could go for a bet and take the betting lead, but what if you don't hit your straight on the turn? What if you don't hit your flush? Do you stop betting? That seems like playing your hand more face up then checking. It does limit your overpairs, but you can still have the Ace high flush draw (AdKd, AdQd,) or could be slow playing a set of Jack or sometimes Nines. These all can be repped with a check-raise on flop or sizable bet on the turn if it gets checked to you. With villain betting 2/3 pot (5bb), they are telling us they either have a flush draw (which is probably better then yours) but more likely a Jack, TxTx, a set, or sometimes two-pair with Jx9x. They bet 5bb We end here with 17.5bb in the pot and 87.5bb behind

So we get to the turn which is all intents and purposes a blank. We still have our draws and we are reducing villain's range to mainly top pair or better. I assume that some semi-bluff flush draws such as the naked AdXx and otherwise will shut it down and take their equity. Leading here does not make sense as I do not see you folding out any of those better hands and the bluffs villain might have might have you beat non-the-less. Check here as played is the way to go. They bet 12bb, 42.5 is the pot with 75.5bb behind.

Now we make our flush draw, and no straights are possible. At this decision point do we check, or raise. Well let's see what value we beat. JxXx of course, Jx9x, and a set of nines some TxTx that play this way. For flush draws that we beat... None? Flush draws that got there that beat us? AdXd that are not AdQd or AdKd. 5 combos. And other broadways suited broadways that got there KdQd and KdXd at some frequency, KdTd, QdTd (Which is their best semi bluff candidate). 4ish more combos. We can give them 5ish of these better flushes because they might shut these down on the turn. Their bluffs here like Qx10x are few a far between and will probably check back anyways (player dependent). Looks like we have value here. Most of the things we beat are not going to like a big bet such as their 1 pair hands. I would say a 1/3-1/2 pot sized gets a call from top pair and better. Put in 20ishbb for a pot of 62.5 with 55.5bb behind. Fold to a jam because I think pocket 9s would probably just call at a high frequency and there are only 3 combos of that anyways (again player dependent because I have seen folks make this move with a set of Twos, Sixes, Fours).

That's my take anyways.