Tips to reverse the curse? (5 Viewers)

[chippitydoodah]

 

[Taghkanic]

I can give you the usual pablum that you just need to keep playing solid poker, and trust that the variance will swing back your way.

But sometimes it can continue a very long time.

If you plot the bell curve of poker players’ “luck,” not everyone is going to wind up at the midpoint of the curve, even over their lifetime. There will be players who get sucked out on more than others, and players who catch one-outers more. The math applies to everyone as a group, not as individuals.

Well, on the bright side I finally had a big winning session last night, though it started out horribly.

Bought in for 120BB. Within the first orbit, I lost 80BB when I opened pre with KQs and flopped top two on KQ6 rainbow. Flatted the villain on that flop for deception, reraised him big on the turn, barreled the river. He came along the whole way with 63s and made trips on the river.

Bleh. I didn’t give all of it away, but already I’m thinking here we go again.

I topped off to 100BB and was card dead for about two hours. But then I had a nice run, and got back to even overall.

Then I really started feeling it, taking off with a combination of strong made hands and bluffs. (People start to really get out of your way when it looks like you’re on a heater, allowing a lot more bluffs to get through.)

Finished +300BB over my buyins, a really solid night anytime, but it felt like winning the lottery in the context of the runbad I’ve been experiencing.

 

[Poker Zombie]

I also like to have hard data to help you avoid "Poker Think" - the tendency for a poker player to remember all of the bad and none of the good. When was the last time you heard the winner's side of a bad beat story?

Blue line is % of the field beaten. Green line is an 8-game trendline which better shows how you are faring with all the peaks and valleys flattened out. Typically the top 25% is paid, though that flexes a little with exact number of players and pay table used (we use different blinds and pay tables with different chipsets).

So I have had a slump. 19 games out of the money. 8 games per year - a little over 2 years of losses. Even though I am recovering, it would be pretty easy to think I'm still doing terrible compared to my results early on. Having this graph lets me know that I am in fact, improving from the slump.

 

[PlaidDragon]

Flop a boat? I can’t get too excited. They’re gonna river a bigger boat.

.....or quads.

Example from my league session 3 weeks ago:

I have . I raise. One caller.

Flop: . I check. Villain checks.

Turn: blank. I value bet. Get raised. I shove. Villain calls with the remaining two 10's....

Regarding the OP's question: The only thing that will stop a run of cold cards is time.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm not a superstitious person, but how do you clear your head when you are seeing a particularly rough run of cards lately? Specifically, I play in a monthly league, which when I have decent cards it's beatable, but 3 out of the last 4 months I've had an epic level cold streak. Last night I got KK the 2nd hand I saw, and then didn't see another face card for an hour and a half. Playing my ass off with marginal hands making moves, but there's only so much you can do with 10-3o every hand. I could use some tips on how you turn the tides. (no animal sacrifices, but open to *some* maiming of enemies).

Actually you want to do the opposite of one thing you mentioned here. If I am in a downswing, I just play fewer hands. This may not be the most profitable, but it does lower the variance, and reduces the chances of making mistakes in marginal spots.

That is harder advice to take in tournaments because sooner or later, the blinds force the action, so in this case, my advice is to avoid marginal spots until you get to that point.

And yes, tournaments are much higher variance than cash, you really need to build that expectation in your head.

 

[JustinInMN]

“Take two weeks off then quit.”

- The Common Man Dan Cole

Common sucks!

 

[Poker Zombie]

.....or quads.

Example from my league session 3 weeks ago:

I have . I raise. One caller.

Flop: . I check. Villain checks.

Turn: blank. I value bet. Get raised. I shove. Villain calls with the remaining two 10's....

Regarding the OP's question: The only thing that will stop a run of cold cards is time.

I'm going to get a T-shirt that reads "villain". That way I will be on the winning side of every bad beat.

 

[Benjaminotaur]

Are you trying to tell me Jesus Christ can't hit a curve ball?

 

[jz12345]

If you know you’re a good player just acknowledge and appreciate the ebbs and flows of the game. Everyone has a dry streak. If you lose more than you win, consistently then acknowledge you’re the fish and consider you budget entertainment money.

 

[PlaidDragon]

I'm going to get a T-shirt that reads "villain". That way I will be on the winning side of every bad beat.

That's brilliant. I want one!

 

[merkong]

Common sucks!

lol

 

[ningolfsland]

Blatantly farm Karma. I once took a beat so bad at the Venetian that I walked outside and handed a hundo to the first bum I could find.

 

[Poker Zombie]

That's brilliant. I want one!

Reach out to @Mrs Poker Zombie . She's just about to make me one, so a second is just time on the machine made easy.

 

[horseshoez]

I’ve been in the same boat. I kept trying to adjust after each session, thinking there was some trick I was missing, but I realized it’s not about constantly changing things. The key is to trust yourself and your decisions. Just make the right moves when you can and don’t get caught up in the results. The cold streak won’t last forever. Sometimes, you just have to roll with the punches, enjoy the game, and keep focusing on the long-term. If you keep playing well, things will turn around.

And also, this right here. This is gold...

View attachment 1473805

One of the best poker books I've ever read

 

[Poker Zombie]

Blatantly farm Karma. I once took a beat so bad at the Venetian that I walked outside and handed a hundo to the first bum I could find.

Did he kick you in the nuts for the full "Vegas Vacation" experience?

 

[BPTDirector]

I play more by position when I’m running bad. Do not try to get in multi player hands and it’s been said but try to learn the ranges of the other players. Stick to a b c poker, you’ll come out of it.

 

[horseshoez]

I play more by position when I’m running bad. Do not try to get in multi player hands and it’s been said but try to learn the ranges of the other players. Stick to a b c poker, you’ll come out of it.

Yup. It might feel more nitty at first but it helps with patches like those. You’ll at least have positional advantage when you’re making your moves.

 

[MichaelBubly]

I've had a very polar last 18 months. Went 8 months without a tournament cash and basically even or losing in every cash game. Was incredibly frustrated and would tilt after the slightest of bad beats.

I took a bit of a hiatus. Skipped a few tournaments and refocused on my strategy a bit. Came back and won 3 tournaments in a row (all 2-3 tables) and was cashing most others for 4-5 months. Felt invincible. Then back to losing everything for 6 months

Coming back off another short break, mainly due to work, but partially due to feeling more frustrated in poor results. Feel really fresh again. Able to focus on processing things throughout a game and not trying to force hands as much. A lot of the time, breaks is how I reset myself. Usually have a lot more fun if I'm focusing on the game and thinking instead of tilting and trying to force a result. Ironically, I also tend to approach the game a lot less seriously when I'm thinking through things the best. I goof around and have fun with my friends at the table and put less emphasis on results.

 

[Poker Zombie]

I understand those that say "take a break from poker". But what do you do if you are the host? Tell everyone "we're not playing until I start winning"?

 

[Phoe9x]

I understand those that say "take a break from poker". But what do you do if you are the host? Tell everyone "we're not playing until I start winning"?

Be the dedicated dealer? Or suck it up and be a nit

 

[Poker Zombie]

Be the dedicated dealer

That's how I spent most of my slump. Get knocked out early and just deal and enjoy the company.

 

[ningolfsland]

Did he kick you in the nuts for the full "Vegas Vacation" experience?

Haha. He took the money quickly started walking away before I said anything. I think he might have developed an urgent need to make a purchase of some kind.

 

[ThrowBack]

Start tipping the dealer, duh

 

[Thomacetti]

When I find I'm stuck in the middle of the pack, I try to play more cash games.

Tournaments rewards the best/luckiest 10-30% of the field (depending on pay structure). Cash games punish or reward considerably less unless you are on the extreme of skill/luck.

Beyond that, record your sessions if possible. A cell phone in the pocket or on the table. Then you can go back over the footage later ad see if you are vpip'ing too much/little raising OOP, or making other "foolish" errors.

What you remember as spot-on play can appear shockingly different 3 weeks later.

I agree, tournies can be brutal for your confidence...
Play some small stakes cash and enjoy the game.

When hit with a cold deck, I just go back to solid ABC play and hand selections.
Use the time when you don't get any hands well, focus on hand ranges and betting structure from the active players.
This will help to build pots and maximize profit in the few playable hands you get.

Just don't tilt, play super tight and/or overbet good hands....and remember

Fold and live to fold again... at some moment in the game, the cards will come.

 

[TKEUofM]

Wish I knew. I’ve been on a cooler for 8+ months. I’ll spare you the gory details, but basically:

(A) If I’m ahead, the villain will catch their outs almost every time. Even when it is two outs.

(B) If I’m behind, I will almost never catch up. Even when I have a massive draw on the flop, say the nut flush and open-ended straight draws.

Flop a boat? I can’t get too excited. They’re gonna river a bigger boat.

I don’t know how many more times I can tell myself that it’s normal variance, and I should want people to play badly against me… Because there seems to be no end in sight.

I’m living through this right now also. So painful to see other always hit their miracle card or always see other get monsters all night while you grind with crap cards.

 

[demonnic]

One thing I've not seen here that I highly recommend doing if you haven't already is reading The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. I'm working my way through it now but it's chock full of ways of breaking this kind of thinking, which can go a long way to breaking the perceived 'curse'.

It will also do wonders for your tilt control. It has already helped me recognize what causes me to tilt and short circuit it in the moment a couple of times, and I've only been working on it for a little while.

 

[Gunnar]

Last tournament I got knocked out by Quads… ( I had 6 high but that is not important)

But tournaments are a completely different beast than cash games. In tournaments when I need focus I play more aggressive pre flop, I open a little bigger and I NEVER CALL unless I’m BB. Control the action if a hand is not worth three betting then you should not call with it. I want to have the stronger range going into the flop as then I can C-Bet weaker hands away even when I don’t hit.

Take note that I’m a LAG and I tend to have a very polarised range so this adjustment in my play makes my ranges more top heavy. But luck is a real thing and some players are more lucky than others.

That is just my opinion and what works for me. Look into your play style and ask your self are you only leaving your self room to be unlucky? Are you balancing your ranges? Before the night you can choose two hands to include in your range that are normally not there. Like I’m going to play A4s and 89s like they are JJ for example. I like do this to keep things fresh.

 

[demonnic]

A4o? *squint* nah, that's AA homey.

 

[Taghkanic]

One thing I've not seen here that I highly recommend doing if you haven't already is reading The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler. I'm working my way through it now but it's chock full of ways of breaking this kind of thinking, which can go a long way to breaking the perceived 'curse'.

It will also do wonders for your tilt control. It has already helped me recognize what causes me to tilt and short circuit it in the moment a couple of times, and I've only been working on it for a little while.

TBH I found Tendler’s book a slog, mostly because he spends so much time repeatedly telling readers that he’s a genius and a crusher and so they must listen to him, the genius crusher. Did he mention that he crushes with his genius?

 

[Rakrul]

Jason Su is another coach that focus on the mental aspect. (He has a YT channel, web-page and small book.) He also tends to act superior in the sense that other coaches are useless, but he claims to help you with "presence" at the table and not take emotional decisions. His book is a bit hippie/Buddhism approach so not for me, but what he says makes sense.

You don't really want to nit up during a downswing as that won't help your profit-line. You need to be able to play good while the poker gods piss on you and those who knows how to, tend to play at a far higher level than us.