NBA 2022-23 Season (1 Viewer)

RainmanTrail

RainmanTrail

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I'm pretty stoked for the NBA season to start. It's always my favorite sport to watch and follow. For the past two seasons, I've been building models to predict team win totals and using those to bet against the Vegas spread. While my bets for 2020 were all refunded due to COVID cutting the season short, I had already won over half of them by the All-Star break and was on pace to win all 8 of the bets I placed. Last season, I went 7-1, with the only team I lost being the Pelicans, which I only lost by 1 game despite their best player, Zion Williamson, not playing a single game (he was supposed to play the full season when my bet was placed). Anyhow, here are the results from my MCMC model that estimates team wins by simulating the season schedule thousands of times. If you want to follow along, or if you feel like gambling with me, here are my team win total estimates for the upcoming season.

My bets this season are:
Utah Jazz OVER 24.5 wins
Indiana Pacers OVER 24 wins
LA Lakers UNDER 44.5 wins
San Antonio Spurs OVER 22.5 wins
Chicago Bulls UNDER 42.5 wins
Detroit Pistons UNDER 29.5 wins

I'm on the fence about these:
Orlando Magic UNDER 27.5 wins
Houston Rockets UNDER 24 wins
Charlotte Hornets OVER 33 wins

My model's win totals for each team are:
ATL 49.1
BKN 47.5
BOS 56.2
CHA 36.9
CHI 35
CLE 45.7
DAL 51
DEN 54.8
DET 19.5
GSW 51.4
HOU 18
IND 36.1
LAC 47.7
LAL 32.8
MEM 50.7
MIA 51.5
MIL 47.9
MIN 47.6
NOP 41.9
NYK 40.6
OKC 21.3
ORL 21.2
PHI 50
PHO 49.5
POR 39.8
SAC 33.8
SAS 30.2
TOR 50.7
UTA 39.2
WAS 32.6

@Lemonzest @Godzilla28
 

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RainmanTrail said:
I'm pretty stoked for the NBA season to start. It's always my favorite sport to watch and follow. For the past two seasons, I've been building models to predict team win totals and using those to bet against the Vegas spread. While my bets for 2020 were all refunded due to COVID cutting the season short, I had already won over half of them by the All-Star break and was on pace to win all 8 of the bets I placed. Last season, I went 7-1, with the only team I lost being the Pelicans, which I only lost by 1 game despite their best player, Zion Williamson, not playing a single game (he was supposed to play the full season when my bet was placed). Anyhow, here are the results from my MCMC model that estimates team wins by simulating the season schedule thousands of times. If you want to follow along, or if you feel like gambling with me, here are my team win total estimates for the upcoming season.

My bets this season are:
Utah Jazz OVER 24.5 wins
Indiana Pacers OVER 24 wins
LA Lakers UNDER 44.5 wins
San Antonio Spurs OVER 22.5 wins
Chicago Bulls UNDER 42.5 wins
Detroit Pistons UNDER 29.5 wins

I'm on the fence about these:
Orlando Magic UNDER 27.5 wins
Houston Rockets UNDER 24 wins
Charlotte Hornets OVER 33 wins

My model's win totals for each team are:
ATL 49.1
BKN 47.5
BOS 56.2
CHA 36.9
CHI 35
CLE 45.7
DAL 51
DEN 54.8
DET 19.5
GSW 51.4
HOU 18
IND 36.1
LAC 47.7
LAL 32.8
MEM 50.7
MIA 51.5
MIL 47.9
MIN 47.6
NOP 41.9
NYK 40.6
OKC 21.3
ORL 21.2
PHI 50
PHO 49.5
POR 39.8
SAC 33.8
SAS 30.2
TOR 50.7
UTA 39.2
WAS 32.6

@Lemonzest @Godzilla28
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Learn Gematria and you can win alot of money

its not easy but again for the 1,000th time none of the games that are played in the nba or any other pro sport or college are organic they are all scripted and rigged by a thing called Gematria
 
My book had Chicago Bulls UNDER 41.5 wins which was 1 game less than your 42.5 wins but I still bet it as your algo has them at 35 wins. I have been meaning to get back into the NBA so sweating these NBA futures is going to help keep me interested. I love it!
 
I’d take the over on NYK @40.6 :cool
Really disappointing season last year after having a solid year with an MVP candidate for much of the 20/21.
And they didn’t pull the trigger on Spida! Keeping the young core and draft capital, at least for now anyway :ROFL: :ROFLMAO::eek:
F60B493A-F846-42CE-8811-F36738A2D93D.jpeg
 
Thisfiendis138 said:
I’d take the over on NYK @40.6 :cool
Really disappointing season last year after having a solid year with an MVP candidate for much of the 20/21.
And they didn’t pull the trigger on Spida! Keeping the young core and draft capital, at least for now anyway :ROFL: :ROFLMAO::eek:
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Knicks Vegas line was at 39.5, so my model pretty much agrees with them. I only bet the teams where I have a delta of about 6 or more games from the Vegas spread. The Knicks are always an interesting play though because they could make a huge move at any point that might drastically affect how strong or weak they are.
 
RainmanTrail said:
Knicks Vegas line was at 39.5, so my model pretty much agrees with them. I only bet the teams where I have a delta of about 6 or more games from the Vegas spread. The Knicks are always an interesting play though because they could make a huge move at any point that might drastically affect how strong or weak they are.
Click to expand...
With their collection of draft capital and young talent, a struggling team with an All Star type talent looking to shed salary near the trade deadline… the Knicks are probably their first call.
 
gmunny said:
Dang its going to be a long season :oops:
Click to expand...

Lakers are probably the most volatile team in the league though. They are actively looking to make big moves, and I expect that they'll be able to pull off at least one. I almost wanted to avoid betting them because of it, but I just think there's too much value there to not bet it.
 
RainmanTrail said:
Lakers are probably the most volatile team in the league though. They are actively looking to make big moves, and I expect that they'll be able to pull off at least one. I almost wanted to avoid betting them because of it, but I just think there's too much value there to not bet it.
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remember its all scripted and rigged they can have whoever they want to win it win it its not real organic basketball they know who is gonna win every single game before it is played

so in Gematria - Kobe Bryant = 113 and Kobe Bean Byant = 81

look up the warriors record since Kobe Died on 1/26/2020

the warriors are exactly 113 Wins and 81 Losses since Kobe Died

THAT IS NOT JUST A COINCIDENCE

Kobe Bryant = 41 he died at 41

his dad entered the league in 1975 his dad was drafted by the Warriors

Kobe Retired in 2016

whats 1975 to 2016 ? = yes it is 41 years

wake up people

Lebron James = 66 - there is 66 books in the King James bible

he won his first nba title in the 66th nba season and that year in 2011-2012 it was shortened to 66 games

LOL Wake Up
 
raynmanas said:
he'll let you know exactly how the season will go and how obvious it was as soon as it's over. :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
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again u are trying to predict how these elites are going to script something its not that easy sometimes it is most times it is not
 
steph curry did exactly what kobe bryant did both in their 13th year in the league

kobe's 13th year in the league 2008-2009 - he won his 4th championship and got his 1st finals mvp

fast forward exactly 13 years later 2009 to 2022

steph curry's 13th year in the league 2021-2022 - he won his 4th championship and got his 1st finals mvp

ohh what a coincidence LOL morons
 
ohh yeah funny how Matthew Stafford won a title in his 13th season as well this year in LA

LA = 41 and 13

41 is the 13th prime number

kobe was 41 his daughter was 13

they died on 1/26/2020 = his daughters name Gianna Bryant in gematria - Gianna Bryant = 126
 
BigSlick4523 said:
ohh yeah funny how Matthew Stafford won a title in his 13th season as well this year in LA

LA = 41 and 13

41 is the 13th prime number

kobe was 41 his daughter was 13

they died on 1/26/2020 = his daughters name Gianna Bryant in gematria - Gianna Bryant = 126
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Please stop derailing this thread
 
RainmanTrail said:
Please stop derailing this thread
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LOL you got it boss this is why they will continue to brainwash people with sports cause nobody pays attention

look up Bread and Circuses its been happening since the Roman Times truly SAD

have fun with your lil bets haha

LOL Lakers game # 57 is on Superbowl # 57 date vs the Warriors you got to Love that Just another Coincidence in Real Organic Sports haha

they play on 1/25 and 1/26

like when he passed Kobe on 1/25/2020 then kobe just ends up dead less then 12hrs later HMMM in Kobe's home town of Philly

goodluck
 
So far, my bets are all looking good. I've been watching a lot of the early games and every game so far informs my model's prior. So that's good. I ended up doubling down on the Utah bet because I was super confident in that one. They're going to beat the win total Vegas line before the all star break lol. They beat a really strong Denver team on opening night, then another strong Timberwolves team in game two, and they're up 10 points tonight on the road in 3rd quarter against another strong team in the Pelicans. They weren't "supposed" to win any of these games, and they might start the season off 3-0. I've also been betting them to cover the spread each night, which have all been wins so far. But that edge will fade soon. The market will catch up to the fact that they were wrong about them by next week.

That doesn't mean they're going to be playoff contenders though. They're still not great. But they're definitely not a 24 win team. I like my line of 39.2 wins a hell of a lot more than Vegas' 24.5 at this point.
 
@RainmanTrail I got to say I'm not much of a sportsball fan at all, but I think this is really cool and I can't wait to see how your model turns out. All the encouragement man!

May this be the only page with that BS
 
Looks like the market has caught up to me for the most part. I haven't been finding many games worth betting as of late. As I mentioned above, I expected this to happen. But I'm happy with my results so far.

I've gone 6-2-1 this season on individual NBA games, and all 6 of my Team season win totals in the OP are looking like they're a lock. I'm probably done betting on the NBA for this season now unless I get some free time to start building more models to account for other factors that I'm not yet baking in to my models.

Having a solid NFL season as well. I'm 11-5 on NFL bets so far this season.

Now I'm moving on to my favorite betting market... THE WORLD CUP!!! Underdog city, here we come!!!
 

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