Tourney Help trying to figure out a 2 day event (1 Viewer)

[bsdunbar1]

Calling on @BGinGA
This info may be here somewhere, but I haven't found the right search terms to track it down.
I know there are resources to adjust the blind structures to control the length of a game, but is there any way to predict/guess the length of a tournament with a set blind structure?
Here are the variables and what I am trying to figure out.
2-Day event
35 players max
WSOP Mini-Main event structure
I would like to play Day 1 down to a specific round OR when we reach 9 players for a Day 2 final table
What I don't know is how to predict when we MAY reach 9 players using this structure.
Would you expect to play 12 levels or 19 in a day 1?

What I am trying to prevent is
Saying Day 1 plays to level 12 or 9 players and then have 17 players left after level 12
OR
Saying Day 1 plays to level 19 or 9 players and then have 9 players left after level 10 (although I think this would be the better scenario of the 2)

Just trying to figure out what to expect, with the structure I know I want to use.

 

[BGinGA]

If you know the number of players (35?), the starting stack size (60,000?), and the blind level duration (30 minutes?), the tournament duration (in number of levels and total time) can be estimated. For those figures above using the blind structure you posted, it should finish in 27 levels or less, or under 13.5 hours playing time plus breaks. With a BBA in play, it's probably safe to assume it will finish in under 13 hours, breaks included.

However, accurately determining when it gets down to the final nine players is nearly impossible, without some history with the structure and/or players.

Best option is to make a hard decision on how long you want to play each day, and announce the corresponding blind level at which play will be stopped on day one (and resumed on day two).

 

[bsdunbar1]

How do you figure out that 35 people with this structure will run for ~13hrs?
What black magic figures that out?

 

[BGinGA]

How do you figure out that 35 people with this structure will run for ~13hrs?
What black magic figures that out?

Total chips in play (# of players × starting stack size) ÷ 20 (big blinds) = the big blind amount at the approximate end-of-event. The logic behind this is that with two players having an average 10bb each, the event simply cannot continue for very long once the blinds reach that level.

Several factors can cause the event to end earlier, however -- antes (BBA or otherwise), an aggressive blind structure, aggressive players, a high number of cold-deck hands that unexpectedly bust out players, a huge stack (or stacks) that dominate play, etc.