I Just Discovered the Optimal Chip Harvesting Strategy for Craps (1 Viewer)

[Blinders]

I stumbled upon a highly unusual and never seen at the Craps table hedging strategy late last year. I call it the "Dead Man's Hedge", and have been experimenting with it in bankroll/playtime extension strategies. I ended up inventing 4 new Craps strategies that on a small buy-in will significantly outlast all known Craps strategies before busting. I just released a Kindle/paperback book with all the details, math, simulation results and strategy variations.

The Dead Man's Hedge: How to Play 10+ Hours of Craps on a Short Buy-In​

While not designed for chip harvesting specifically, the nature of these new novel Craps strategies make them by far the best known for harvesting. They allow you to post up at a Craps table with a small buy-in and play marathon sessions with little risk of busting out.

Ask me anything about them.

If you wan't to pick up a copy, just leave an honest review then DM me, and I will refund the purchase price. Please note that harvesting is not mentioned in the book.

 

[Blinders]

I was hoping to get a general chip harvesting discussion started and will also provide all of the details here of the mathematically optimal bankroll extension Craps strategy if someone asks.

Maybe this will help. If you click on the link, and check out the cover, it is a photo of my home Craps table. The chips in play are well known Paulson RHCs you see exchanged a lot in the marketplace. I will send a signed copy, to the first person to identify the casino.

 

[ekricket]

Well they are Terribles.

 

[Blinders]

Well they are Terribles.

That's the brand, but there are multiple locations. Which casino?

 

[Tonysquander]

St. Jo/Saint Joseph MO

If correct, you can still send it to @ekricket

 

[Blinders]

St. Jo/Saint Joseph MO

If correct, you can still send it to @ekricket

We have a winner, but to be fair, I'll send you both a copy. Just DM me your mailing address.

 

[CraigT78]

I'm intrigued. How are you playing craps for 10 hours? I typically play craps for 10 minutes.

 

[UniLover]

I'm intrigued. How are you playing craps for 10 hours? I typically play craps for 10 minutes.

I have never had a positive night playing craps.

 

[Blinders]

I'm intrigued. How are you playing craps for 10 hours? I typically play craps for 10 minutes.

The idea is that while Craps has a very low house edge, the variance is very high. So while in theory, you could play for a long time on a small buy-in, in practice you are going to end up busting out fast on a small buy-in due to the high variance.

The strategies I developed exploit a betting configuration that sheds the high variance at very low cost per roll, enabling them to last much longer than all other low cost Craps strategies.

It's going to be less action than most seasoned Craps players could handle, but if the goal is to grab 20-30 chips and hour while earning points and free drinks at minimal risk, it's pretty much ideal.

 

[CraigT78]

The idea is that while Craps has a very low house edge, the variance is very high. So while in theory, you could play for a long time on a small buy-in, in practice you are going to end up busting out fast on a small buy-in due to the high variance.

The strategies I developed exploit a betting configuration that sheds the high variance at very low cost per roll, enabling them to last much longer than all other low cost Craps strategies.

It's going to be less action than most seasoned Craps players could handle, but if the goal is to grab 20-30 chips and hour while earning points and free drinks at minimal risk, it's pretty much ideal.

So like playing 35 numbers on roulette every spin?

 

[Blinders]

Not quite that bad. It's a legitimate strategy, that loses less money per hour than nearly all other Craps strategies, but still gives you plenty of chances to win. It's dark-side, so it tends to win in the short-term, so you can expect lots of small winning sessions when played for 1-2 hours.

Here is the exact optimal strategy
Buy in for 10x the min bet ($100 at a $10 minimum table in the example)
Make a $10 Don't Pass bet
If the point is a 6 or 8, Place bet the point for $12
If the point is a 5 or 9, Place bet the point for $10
If you hit a Place bet, take it down
If the Don't Pass bet resolves, make a new one.

Half of the sessions playing that strategy, on a minimal $100 buy-in will last over 10 hours before busting at a full table. If you play it from the Don't Come instead, which is how I like to play it live, you will last over 12.5 hours before busting.

If the point is a 5,6,8, or 9 and it gets hit you will generate four $1 chips every time which you can add to the harvest.

 

[Colquhoun]

Is the payout anything like grinding limit hold-em?

 

[Blinders]

Is the payout anything like grinding limit hold-em?
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It's a Craps strategy, so you can't grind out a profit like limit poker. All Craps strategies are money losers. At a $10 table, when played from the Don't Come you will lose about $4 an hour long-term with the strategy I described. There are slight variations, that get that down to about -$3/hr long-term while still going 12.5+ hours. The magic is really the variance reduction that prevents an early bust.

If you go to a casino with $1 chips worth $2 on resale, you can harvest 20+ chips an hour, earn points, and possibly get free drinks, so you can earn a long-term profit under the right circumstances.

 

[BEANO52]

I've been low rolling craps awhile and this my goto strategy (never more than $20 at risk per roll. I've shared these before.

$15 table
* $20 don't
* Establish point
* Place 6 & 8
* First hit add $3 make 6 & 8 $30
* Second hit add $1 and go $96 across
* Collect until 7 out
* press/regress as you wish

I also play a hedged 3 point molly from the DC.

Place a DC when it moves behind place the same number. Repeat unril you have 3 numbers covered and hedged. Rinse/repeat.

Either strategy can help your bankroll last a long time (normally) and can't also bankrupt your roll quickly (rarer).

Most importantly with any strategy, Leave when up !

 

[Frogzilla]

All Craps strategies are money losers.

I have a friend who can’t hit a point for their life. We’ve got to be 4-5 std dev away at this point. Maybe 6. It’s inexplicable insanity. Anyways, dark side against this dude absolutely prints.

 

[Blinders]

I've been low rolling craps awhile and this my goto strategy (never more than $20 at risk per roll. I've shared these before.

$15 table
* $20 don't
* Establish point
* Place 6 & 8
* First hit add $3 make 6 & 8 $30
* Second hit add $1 and go $96 across
* Collect until 7 out
* press/regress as you wish

I also play a hedged 3 point molly from the DC.

Place a DC when it moves behind place the same number. Repeat unril you have 3 numbers covered and hedged. Rinse/repeat.

Either strategy can help your bankroll last a long time (normally) and can't also bankrupt your roll quickly (rarer).

Most importantly with any strategy, Leave when up !

Good to know there are others out there low rolling craps. The hedged 3 Point Molly (its "Dolly" from the don't) you describe is interesting, and would outlast most conventional strategies with ease. I have a version called the "3 Point Folly" in the book that is a legitimate strategy for the action Craps player. Instead of hedging everything like in your version, you only hedge the 6 and 8, and you lay the odds on the other numbers. Since you are only hedging the 6/8 and lay odds are free, its almost as low cost to play as the 3 Point Dolly (one of lowest cost strategies), but it can be done on a much smaller bankroll due to the variance reduction.

 

[CraigT78]

And here I am trying to parlay the hard ways. No wonder I last less than 10 minutes

 

[Jers28]

I'm intrigued. How are you playing craps for 10 hours? I typically play craps for 10 minutes.

That’s 10 mins longer than I’ve played in my life.

I can’t be the only person on PCF that finds the term harvesting hilarious. No judgment. My current cash set is full of harvested chips.

 

[LotsOfChips]

I'm intrigued. How are you playing craps for 10 hours?

The write up for the book says that you can play "typical session lengths exceeding 10 hours on a $150 buy-in at a $15 minimum table".

My best strategy to achieve that would be to play the minimum once per hour.

 

[Blinders]

For a Craps strategy to qualify, it must have a bet in action on every roll with a chance to win money. You can't skip rolls and strategies like "Doey-Don't" have no chance of winning.

The Don't Pass version of the strategy meets all of the qualifications, and has a median of 607 rolls before busting on a $100 buy-in / $10 minimum table which at a full table is over 10 hours. The Don't Come version is the same strategy, but you have to skip the come-out rolls (20% of rolls). That will get you to 12.5 hours and is how I play it live. You get the extended play that way, and you will not bother the table making an occasional Don't Come bet, but it is not a qualifying strategy.

I guess the ultimate Craps harvesting strategy would be to buy-in, and never play while getting change repeatedly and pocketing chips, but It seem like that could be hard to pull off.

 

[JWC]

I guess the ultimate Craps harvesting strategy would be to buy-in, and never play while getting change repeatedly and pocketing chips, but It seem like that could be hard to pull off.

I use it all the time to buy chips for my collection. I rarely place a bet, and get the chips that I want.

 

[Poker Zombie]

The best craps strategy is way less complex.

1. Find a table with a really hot girl playing.
2. Bet on whatever she is betting, make the bets just a little bigger than her bets.
3. When she wins, you win. Share the joy. When she loses you can commiserate. You are now compatriots.
4. Let nature, powered by free drinks, take it's course.
5. Pray you last more than 10 minutes.