Yet Another WSOP Tournament Hand (1 Viewer)

[MrCatPants]

So for this hand, we're fast forwarding to much later in the tournament. Hero has been completely card dead for about four hours - picking up one pot after VPIPing 2-3 hands total. I was moved tables twice, so this 'new table' only has seen me folding for about 30-40 minutes. This hand was interesting and also has ICM/money bubble implications.

Context : 1k buy-in NLHE freeze out, 420/2663 runners at level 15 - everyone has been playing poker for about twelve hours at this point. Money bubble is still 20 players away. Average stack is a little over 100k. Structured with BB ante - at level 15 we are playing 3,000/5,000/5,000.

Relevant players:
CO (Hero) : 120K - has not seen a flop at this table in about 30-40 minutes of play
BTN : 280k - active player but not reckless, has won a couple of showdowns since I've been at the table and is winning more than his fair share of pots overall.
SB : 140k - wrapped up like a Star Wars sand person, all I can see is a nose under sunglasses, scarf wrap, hoodie, and headphones. The type of player where every decision takes 20+ seconds. GTO bot.
BB : 400k - one of the chip leaders in the overall tournament at this point, definitely starting to bully his position

Pot is 13,000

Folds to hero, who looks down at

Action on hero.

 

[JustinInMN]

Folds to hero, who looks down at

Oh this story seldom ends well. But with only 24BB in your stack, I am not going to try and outwait 20 players for a min cash. Open for 12K. And I think I would be ready to play for stacks against the BB here. You win this hand, you probably can really nit it up to the bubble.

If you pass here, you are probably resigned to dwindling half your stack before you get a hand as good and won't make it to the bubble.

 

[JustinInMN]

How long are the levels at this point?

 

[Senzrock]

24 bb's you can shove this hand but assume we just want to open here (I would open on the larger side approaching the bubble - 3x so $15k).

 

[bergs]

I’d make it an even 20K to go and yeah get ready to play for stacks pre if you can.

 

[MrCatPants]

How long are the levels at this point?

40 mins

 

[MrCatPants]

24 bb's you can shove this hand but assume we just want to open here (I would open on the larger side approaching the bubble - 3x so $15k).

In general, opens have gotten smaller as the tournament has gone on. Opens now are generally 2x, sometimes up to like 2.2x - that size open (not buying or selling) would raise some eyebrows, but can't say in what way. I will say I was surprised about the sizing, given the BB ante.

 

[JustinInMN]

40 mins

So 2-2.5 orbits per level. Just seeing how long you could realistically fold your way. You would lose 5BB for every 2 orbits you fold. The BB I assume will go up to 6K on the next level so that's another 20% out of your stack right there. If you fold every hand for two more levels you are probably down to 7BB and getting forced in. Is the bubble likely to go in that time period?

 

[MrCatPants]

So 2-2.5 orbits per level. Just seeing how long you could realistically fold your way. You would lose 5BB for every 2 orbits you fold. The BB I assume will go up to 6K on the next level so that's another 20% out of your stack right there. If you fold every hand for two more levels you are probably down to 7BB and getting forced in. Is the bubble likely to go in that time period?

https://www.wsop.com/tournaments/structure/?aid=2&grid=4943&tid=20318&dayof=203181&rr=5

 

[Senzrock]

In general, opens have gotten smaller as the tournament has gone on. Opens now are generally 2x, sometimes up to like 2.2x - that size open (not buying or selling) would raise some eyebrows, but can't say in what way. I will say I was surprised about the sizing, given the BB ante.

Yeah I think in general players are too stuck on the same sizing and are not willing to experiment enough with larger opens depending on stage of the tournament. Also, no one has seen you open yet and 3x isn't that abnormal (even if not standard).

 

[MrCatPants]

So 2-2.5 orbits per level. Just seeing how long you could realistically fold your way. You would lose 5BB for every 2 orbits you fold. The BB I assume will go up to 6K on the next level so that's another 20% out of your stack right there. If you fold every hand for two more levels you are probably down to 7BB and getting forced in. Is the bubble likely to go in that time period?

I do not have enough MTT experience to accurately predict it. But there are definitely a great number of stacks much shorter than mine around room, many folks trying to hang on for dear life.

I did think at the time I could probably fold into the money just by the pace. But had no idea how tight hand for hand was going to be.

 

[Senzrock]

Yeah I think in general players are too stuck on the same sizing and are not willing to experiment enough with larger opens depending on stage of the tournament. Also, no one has seen you open yet and 3x isn't that abnormal (even if not standard).

And just to be clear, it sounds like you have several tough players left to act behind so I don't want to incentivize them to get involved.

 

[MrCatPants]

Yeah I think in general players are too stuck on the same sizing and are not willing to experiment enough with larger opens depending on stage of the tournament. Also, no one has seen you open yet and 3x isn't that abnormal (even if not standard).

I will say the sizing thought entered my mind here as, given the ICM considerations, I realistically wanted to just pick up this pot pre regardless of how heavy a favorite I might be against a caller.

 

[MrCatPants]

And just to be clear, it sounds like you have several tough players left to act behind so I don't want to incentivize them to get involved.

It was a murderers row for sure. Weak parts of the table were a few places right. Guy I had as the weakest actually ended up with a top 10 finish though, so my reads are clearly shit

 

[JustinInMN]

It was a murderers row for sure. Weak parts of the table were a few places right. Guy I had as the weakest actually ended up with a top 10 finish though, so my reads are clearly shit

Or maybe poker tournaments aren't the best way to determine the best players . (*ducks*)

 

[Welshman]

Open to between 12 and 15K.

 

[warma]

So you could potentially be a nit who finally hit or a nervous nelly trying to make a desperate move before it is too late.

 

[MrCatPants]

Hero opens at the 2x that has become standard at this stage.

Context : 1k buy-in NLHE freeze out, 420/2663 runners at level 15 - everyone has been playing poker for about twelve hours at this point. Money bubble is still 20 players away. Average stack is a little over 100k. Structured with BB ante - at level 15 we are playing 3,000/5,000/5,000.

Relevant players:
CO (Hero) : 120K - has not seen a flop at this table in about 30-40 minutes of play
BTN : 280k - active player but not reckless, has won a couple of showdowns since I've been at the table and is winning more than his fair share of pots overall.
SB : 140k - wrapped up like a Star Wars sand person, all I can see is a nose under sunglasses, scarf wrap, hoodie, and headphones. The type of player where every decision takes 20+ seconds. GTO bot.
BB : 400k - one of the chip leaders in the overall tournament at this point, definitely starting to bully his position

Pot is 13,000

Folds to hero, who looks down at

Hero opens to 10,000
Button calls
SB calls
BB folds

Pot is 38,000

Flop comes

SB checks
Action on hero

 

[raynmanas]

bet. 25k to go.

 

[Welshman]

Pretty nice flop. Bet about 40 to 50% of the pot.

 

[JustinInMN]

Welp I guess you caught your flop. Bet 20-25 and plan to call a shove. You might run into aq, that's poker. That and 44 are the only ways I can see hero "behind" in this spot. Villain may have some draws, but hero hold to really limit how many flush draws villain can have.

Bet it, and we can't be too scared of a raise.

 

[Skagglio]

This spot feels a lot more comfortable post bubble. Going out here feels very bad since you could have folded into a surefire min cash. With only 20 to go and 420 players left I'd be surprised if it made it more than 2 orbits around before ITM. That said you have a hand that is hard to fold and any aggression by other players is leading to an all in.

 

[MrCatPants]

This spot feels a lot more comfortable post bubble. Going out here feels very bad since you could have folded into a surefire min cash. With only 20 to go and 420 players left I'd be surprised if it made it more than 2 orbits around before ITM. That said you have a hand that is hard to fold and any aggression by other players is leading to an all in.

What action are you taking in this spot?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

honestly with 24 bbs and an M of 9, and the fact you have a tight rep (they haven’t seen you play a hand in 30m minutes) I’d just jam here pre and hope to a little over 10% to your stack.

 

[Skagglio]

What action are you taking in this spot?

Can't give draws free cards so I'm betting 35% pot. I'd be screaming for opponent folds in my head though this close to bubble.

 

[MrCatPants]

honestly with 24 bbs and an M of 9, and the fact you have a tight rep (they haven’t seen you play a hand in 30m minutes) I’d just jam here pre and hope to a little over 10% to your stack.

What action would you be taking post flop here?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Tptk with backdoor nut flush and broadway draws, I’d make it like 16k.

 

[warma]

This spot feels a lot more comfortable post bubble. Going out here feels very bad since you could have folded into a surefire min cash. With only 20 to go and 420 players left I'd be surprised if it made it more than 2 orbits around before ITM. That said you have a hand that is hard to fold and any aggression by other players is leading to an all in.

With so many players and so many hands, these tournaments are almost lotteries. You have to act when you’re given something, and if you’re beat, you’re beat. If you’re too conservative, you’ll miss your shot.

So yeah, bet. Odds of running into a set of Aces is really small, so act like you got them and go.

 

[Skagglio]

With so many players and so many hands, these tournaments are almost lotteries. You have to act when you’re given something, and if you’re beat, you’re beat. If you’re too conservative, you’ll miss your shot.

So yeah, bet. Odds of running into a set of Aces is really small, so act like you got them and go.

For every other stage of the tournament, I agree. The only exception in the my mind is this exact scenario where you have a marginal stack so close to the bubble. With a clear avenue to the money though folding for another 10-15 min, it feels very bad walking away with nothing after battling so long.

 

[JustinInMN]

For every other stage of the tournament, I agree. The only exception in the my mind is this exact scenario where you have a marginal stack so close to the bubble. With a clear avenue to the money though folding for another 10-15 min, it feels very bad walking away with nothing after battling so long.

I don't know if the avenue was so clear with 20 to the bubble and being unsure of the time to the next level increase. Hero has 20 bb and if waiting 20-30 mins more will be down to 10-12 bb and forced in with a hand unlikely to be as good.

Hero wins this pot, especially with a double up he can cruise to the money.