Yet another spewy Ignition hand (1 Viewer)

[Jimulacrum]

To add the detail, it's either or, if you bet this river you are hoping he will make a considered laydown with a hand he 3-bet pre and led twice, or he will pay off a weaker hand (which that range just got narrower with the bottom flop card pairing.) There is no world where villain is calling with 6x but making a considered laydown with 99.

We all fall into this trap from time to time where we justify illogical actions, and we just compound mistakes street after street. I probably would have been tempted to call the flop, but I landed on a clear fold after typing out my analysis. That's why strategy threads are useful. Forces you to take the time to analyze situations before they happen again.

This is on point.

Betting the river in this spot only makes sense, as with most of the actions in this hand, if you know Villain and have specific information that makes it a good play. Like, say, you know he will often three-bet and then double-barrel with unimproved ace-high, and he is also capable of snapping off river bets with ace-high (but will check back if checked to). Then you can bet 88 for a bit of value.

Outside of a situation where you have this information, the best way to describe your line is "got sticky with a pocket pair and potted river for no clear purpose." I've had many players over the years take lines against me like the one you took here. It's something I make a written note about if I'm playing online. Getting overly attached to pocket pairs is a massive leak.

Moreover, the river is a different animal compared to the flop and turn. On the earlier rounds, you can have a legit reason to bet out or raise with a marginal hand like 88, to protect your hand and force weaker hands to pay when you're ahead. On the river, even if you believe you're good, Villain will almost never call with a worse hand. If you believe you're losing and it's a bluff, there's not much you can bluff out. Some middle pairs like 99 may fold, but even that is a stretch because your line is so suspicious. You're repping a 5 or better, essentially, but your actions aren't really consistent with that.

In fact, your actions look like precisely what you have: a marginal hand that you hate the idea of folding but aren't confident is ahead. Even if Villain didn't have a 5 here, and he had one of the other hands folks thought he would (overpairs, mainly), that river bet is little more than a gift to him. If you called his jam on the end, that's even more unfortunate.

I recommended folding the flop and the turn, and I stand by that, but calling on those two rounds was nowhere near as leaky a play as betting out (and calling, if true) that river.

 

[JustinInMN]

Betting the river in this spot only makes sense, as with most of the actions in this hand, if you know Villain and have specific information that makes it a good play. Like, say, you know he will often three-bet and then double-barrel with unimproved ace-high, and he is also capable of snapping off river bets with ace-high (but will check back if checked to). Then you can bet 88 for a bit of value.

And again, not a read one can make reliably in an anonymous game.

I recommended folding the flop and the turn, and I stand by that, but calling on those two rounds was nowhere near as leaky a play as betting out (and calling, if true) that river.

100% this ^

 

[johnnyesper]

"I recommended folding the flop and the turn, and I stand by that, but calling on those two rounds was nowhere near as leaky a play as betting out (and calling, if true) that river."

I cant agree more with this. This was one of my biggest level up moments. My win rate took a huge jump up when I plugged this leak.

 

[JustinInMN]

And I don't want to make it seem like I am being too tough on anonymous "zoom" games, even thought I put the reminder up in my responses that it is a different animal then a game where you can at least figure out things from knowing a guy is in the same seat for even 30 minutes.

These games are plus EV if you have a solid ABC strategy that you know is better than average player in a "zoom" game and you accept there won't be value in "soul reads" or other deviations.

To sit in this game is to bet that your ABC game is better than the majority of those in the room and can turn a profit that way.

It's true it's not my style, but that doesn't mean they're bad games. Just consider the correct strategy answers are usually going to be the most straight forward ones. Never fancy play.

 

[boltonguy]

Agree that this hand was poorly played. Appreciate the input - always looking to improve.

 

[johnnyesper]

Agree that this hand was poorly played. Appreciate the input - always looking to improve.

I don't fully agree the hand was played poorly until the river. I think you can debate the merits of continuing pre-flop through the turn. It seems to me that the biggest takeaways are understanding villains 3! bet range, knowing your 3! calling range, using that info in all three streets, and not calling/raising the river with marginal made hands. I will also note that your game type is a factor that was mentioned in an earlier post. It was an interesting hand. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Eriks]

I don't fully agree the hand was played poorly until the river. I think you can debate the merits of continuing pre-flop through the turn. It seems to me that the biggest takeaways are understanding villains 3! bet range, knowing your 3! calling range, using that info in all three streets, and not calling/raising the river with marginal made hands. I will also note that your game type is a factor that was mentioned in an earlier post. It was an interesting hand. Thanks for sharing.

I agree, I would have played the same until the river

 

[Legend5555]

I think for the price you got on the flop, a call is fine. Raising is crazy IMO as you just can't have many really strong hands here or even bluffs. At best you can have AQ or KQs? Not only that, OOP you generally want to keep the pot smaller. Fold turn for sure to continued action. He has a big range advantage. And the only hands ou realistically beat given the action is AsKs and maybe a super light AsJs. And even those have good equity.

Sometimes you are going to be folding the winner, but you can't just call down every Paint-little-little flop OOP with 2nd pair to the board. This is something that is WAY easier to do in position.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Sometimes you are going to be folding the winner, but you can't just call down every Paint-little-little flop OOP with 2nd pair to the board. This is something that is WAY easier to do in position.

Still not convinced it would change my "Save your money and get out" perspective on this particular hand, but yes, in general, being in position with 88 on a Q54 flop is different than being OOP.

In position, I might be more willing to raise the flop, or maybe flat the flop and raise the turn (intending to check back the river). Lots of options open up when you're not stuck acting first on the next round.