A bit loose but I'm tilting. UTG limps, CO raises to $1.10, BN calls, Hero calls in SB
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Rewarded with a boat on the flop
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Hero X, UTG X, CO bets $2.21 (1/2 pot). Hero is the only caller
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Hero checks a straightening turn card and V bets $4.31 (1/2 pot). Hero calls
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Hero donk jams the river figuring I have the absolute nuts as quad 8 or 9 isnt possible
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Villain snap calls as the river boated him up and we chop. Hero makes a profit of $0.22.
I didnt think to jam turn as I wasnt afraid of any cards and V was doing all the betting for me ... oh, these rivers are killing me!
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tldr: lead turn; unlucky runout.
Pre-flop: I like the call from the SB (I don't think this is too loose?). I think this can be a 3bet sometimes with a CO open and a button flat, and it can be a tricky hand since when we flop equity (especially in a multi-way pot) it'll mean equity for everyone else's ranges, too. Our two pair is someone else's open-ender, we could be overflushed, etc. But that's just a reason to tread lightly. If BB or LJ find 3bets, hat tip, and we'll figure out how to proceed by the time it gets back to us.
Flop: Like the check with how locked the board is for us. There's a case for leading here, since this board kind of smashes a SB calling range, and we can definitely get called by worse. We also have some bluffs like JT/QT/QJ of diamonds and hearts, and maybe 76 of those suits, that can call pre-flop from SB and lead sometimes. With three other players in the pot, we're likely to run into at least one caller on this board, and we're definitely missing value if it checks through (though we hopefully can recoup value later if it checks through). I'm just personally way worse at balancing bluffs as a lead than I am at balancing bluffs as a check-raise. Sometimes, I'd like to check-raise this hand to a size where we can shove turns--something like $6.25 should give us an easy shove on just about all turns. I think plenty of hands can call a x/r here, too. Combo draws, strong diamond draws, overpairs, gutshots with backdoor hearts, Tc8c, 8c7c (though obviously the 7c rolls off on the turn), 8c6c, etc., all have enough equity versus range, and I think there are just too many middle-of-the-deck turns (depending on villain's hand, could be as wide as 5 through Q) that a lot of villain's range will be fine checking back on. But, the presence of the lo-jack makes me pretty indifferent between check-calling and check-raising. Though the lo-jack/UTG check-folds as played, I would expect some of those equitable hands to also be in that player's limp-calling range. If CO is just one-and-done-ing with like KhQh, it serves us well keeping LJ's range in for a turn lead.
Turn: As played, I'd lead small. I think the 7 just slows CO down too often as a perceived range card for SB. In a vacuum, hero and villain both have some 8s7s, 98 in spades and clubs, 77, 99, JT. But CO has a lot more overpairs, flush draws, gut shots, BDFDs, etc. than we do. I think CO's overpairs check back, I think the strong diamond flush draws or combo draws should consider checking back to avoid getting shoved on and maybe folding out a lot of equity against our range, and I think the gutters/BDFDs are likely now give-ups. If you think this villain will fire again with flush draws, overpairs, or gutters, I definitely like calling and then maybe leading river. I just think we're missing some value from some hands that could call a bet but would check back the turn and then fold to a river lead unimproved. For sizing, I think anything between like $3.50 and the $4.31 that villain used would work fine. That gives us a river shove of near-pot to a slight overbet. Great price for flush draws to continue, too small for overpairs to fold (plus denying them a free chance to hit a two-outer), and maybe we get shoved on by an enterprising JT, a coolered 77 or 8c7c, or a bluffing QdJd/QdTd/Tc8c/Td7d. Sure, hands like QhJh might fold to a turn lead where they could've checked back and binked a T on the river, but que sera sera.
River: As played, I'm wondering what we can get called by here that isn't a 9 or an 8, though exploitatively villain should have all of his 8cXx that he opens from the CO with this bet-bet line. JT, sometimes, and maybeeee a disbelieving overpair or A-high. But I also don't think any of villain's hands decide to bet when checked to on this river. I'm sure there are some missed flush draws or gutshots that are theoretically supposed to fire again, but this river would just make me give up on whatever bluff I was trying to run because SB has so many boats now. Unfortunately, I think leading small is probably the play, unless we're ripping hands like QJ/QT of diamonds and hearts, 7h6h, 7d6d, maybe 7s6s (should we be ripping those hands? maybe? or is that just punting?). And on this runout, I think I'd want to get greedy and bet-fold small with JT targeting overpairs and A-highs (that might be a mistake, I'm not sure), but I can't see us betting JT for this size. But I'm pretty torn: the open rip after a check-call check-call does look kinda bluff-y, which is great for us here.
