What is this hand worth? (1 Viewer)

[xt!]

I ran into an interesting hand the other day and I thought it would be equally interesting to post it here with a bit of a twist. Please answer the question before you read other responses to be as unbiased as possible in this format.

I'm looking for your "on the spot" answer, that is please answer with what you would do on the spot, do some quick analysis and maybe 30 seconds of in-your-head math, don't break out the pokerstove for your initial answer. Please feel free to do some in depth analysis on it and post a second response, but please clarify that you did so in the response.

The hand:

Playing a 5-10 PLO game with a few nuts. Two guys in particular are just looking to gamble and are not intimidated at all by the money in play. Another guy is tilted from "getting unlucky" in a few hands he played horribly earlier on. This hand sees Hero and all three of them seeing a flop in a raised pot. Hero has the button with AsKsJx7x. (~$250 in the pot) The flop is QsJc5s. Nut #1 (playing $4000) checks, Tilty (playing $500) checks, Nut #2 (playing $6000) pots it for $125. Hero decides to pot control (and play it tricky) and flats on the button. Nut #1 re-pots it ($800ish, I dont remember exactly and it doesnt matter), tilty calls for less ($500), Nut #2 gets stack counts from Hero, Nut #1, and tilty, then re-pots it ($3000ish, again the bet size doesnt matter, the total stacks do)

This is as all-in or all-out of a situation as it gets, there is no way Nut #1 is ever not shoving here, there is no way that nut #2 is ever folding here.

The question:

What is your dollar threshold for getting all of your chips in the middle... that is, what is the largest stack where you push all-in? (anything above that number you would fold) Assume you are properly rolled for the game - other than that, all assumptions, hand ranges, and variables not already listed are yours to determine.

Go go go...

 

[atomiktoaster]

Gut, maybe $2000? I'm not a PLO player, by any means. How are these assumptions when I start to do the math, for my educational purposes? 1. The only thing worth evaluating is the spade for the nut flush (Hero loses otherwise and wins every time a spade hits. 2. The only possible correct answers are zero, $500, $4000 and no limit, based on where the pot odds shift. 3. The hand is big enough that hero doesn't have to worry about giving the villains better reads in the future, based on this hand.

 

[Ben]

If I'm absolutely certain that both nuts are all-in regardless, I'm getting it in regardless of stack sizes - we could be $100k deep and I'm still getting it in. We have at least 33% equity in this pot no matter what, unless we make assumptions about dead outs in opponents' hands based on the action, which may or may not be correct, or affect things significantly enough to matter (no way to know in 30 seconds.) We do have a boat blocker to help make up for that regardless.

 

[Leonard]

Assuming that I am used to the variance of PLO (I'm not) and I'm bankrolled for a game this size (I might be in the bank but not in my cojones) and that I'm going to get into a three way all-in with big-time gamblers, then I think I'm in regardless of stack size.

L

 

[Chicken Rob]

Any spade, any T and we have the nuts. We scoop with the spade. I'm assuming that if the board pairs we're toast (except running jacks). I think getting 2:1 is enough to get my money in the pot. I'm a bankroll nit, so I puke when the board inevitably pairs.

 

[DrStrange]

This hand is fine vs two crazy folk and a tilty short stack. I would be a lot more fearful of different villains but not here.

I doubt Hero's expected value is enormous, but I guess it might +3 or +4 percent (36%-37%). It will be interesting to see what everyone likes so much, given that Hero has the nut flush draw and the second nut as well. Reasonable villains would show down top set vs a mighty wrap + lesser flush draw.

DrStrange

PS Hero would need to be far more careful vs solid villains. Hero's hand is going to be less than 33% value in a three way war. The villain description is key.

 

[Ben]

It will be interesting to see what everyone likes so much, given that Hero has the nut flush draw and the second nut as well.

^^This is a good point as well. If we're going to start making assumptions about specific cards being in villains' hands, holding both the As and Ks might lead us to assume that at least 2 of the 3 villains are blocking each other to pair the board.

 

[onerand]

If properly rolled I would be fine putting in the $4k on the flop and calling off remaining $2k on a non-pairing turn. You have the King of spades, so it is more likely that you are up against a couple made hands rather than big draws that block your outs. If you would be prone to tilt upon losing this is a fold; the math is close as some of your outs will be dead.

 

[stocky]

I've hardly played any PLO so won't comment on the hand itself but just wondering what is the worse hand we could be up against? Something like QQ10s9s?

 

[grandgnu]

I'm going to say $6,000 is my threshold. We have blockers if someone has a wrap draw or two pair/set in this spot, and two shots to hit our flush or broadway.

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

made me think of Ben, lol!

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

about tree-fiddy

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I agree with Leonard and Ben, if I am properly bankrolled to play this game, in this spot, with these other players, I think I have to get the money in the middle. Hopefully they both have sets.

 

[xt!]

I'm interested in how nobody has mentioned the difference in stack sizes and the relatively small amount of dead money in the middle (750-1000?)

What if nut 1 only had 2k? 3k? What if nut 2 had 8k? Would it change how much you're willing to stack off for?

 

[Ben]

I think the paramaters of what you're asking need to be better defined. What are the fixed values? I'm happy stacking off against Nut 1 and Nut 2 for 4k and 6k respectively. If all 3 of us had 100k I would stack off. So, say we fix Nut 1's stack at 4k, how much are we willing to stack off for against Nut 2? Is that the question?

In that case, Nut 2 (and us, obv) would have to have another $15k behind (on top of Nut 1's $4k) for me to fold. If it's $14k I'm getting it in, based on a 30-second (OK, maybe SLIGHTLY longer) calculation, which may not be 100% correct.

 

[xt!]

That's the gist of it ben... I'm having a hard time defining the question, but you got the idea. Interesting you can up with 15k more as a cut off point.

I should point out that these guys are experienced plo players and they are "nuts" in the 5t plo realm, not home game nut jobs. They aren't jamming 6k in here with naked aces.

 

[Chicken Rob]

I think I was pretty clear. I'm in as long as I can keep getting 2:1. Regardless of stack size. I'm also assuming I'm rolled for it. Or at least rich enough to rebuild after getting felted.

 

[xt!]

So rob, your cutoff in the op would be 5k then... (10k total pot with 1k pf/short stack/your own money, 4k from nut 1, and matching 5k from nut 2)?

 

[Trihonda]

Ok, so this is not my game... But, according to everyone here, the odds seem to favor your making a play for stacks. If you're bankroll supports the stakes, then get the money in, regardless of stack sizes.

Get it in good, prepare for variance. Buy a round of drinks for everyone if your hand hits.

 

[Ben]

After further review based on a bad "quick" assumption in the original calculation (no Pokerstove or anything, just further review which I wouldn't have a chance to do at the table - but if I were actually playing PLO for this kind of cheddah I would have given this sort of thing more thought ahead of time, so I'll allow it...)

I'm revising my "fold" number from $15k on top to $9k on top ($13k total.)

 

[DrStrange]

Hero needs to be getting 2:1 on his money to continue. As soon as that stops, Hero needs to pause and consider.

Hero is a 3-5 dog vs a set and a slight favorite vs a wide array of wraps/combos. Lets be lazy and say 40% equity vs a set and 50% equity vs the rest of villain's range.

There is $750 in dead money. ($250 + 4x $125). There will be a four way pot with $1,250 which hero contributes $313. Let's give hero 30% equity in the four way pot (which is perhaps a bit high) Hero has 30% of $2,000 less $313 or $287 in equity.

I assumed hero is barely getting value from the bigger three way (+3%) So for every $1000 Hero bets/calls, he earns $80 in equity { ($1000 x 3 players) x 36% - $1000 = $80 }

Once Hero gets to be heads up he is -5% equity for every dollar risked. So for every $1000 Hero bets/calls heads up, he loses $100 { ($1000 x 2 players) x 45% - $1000 = -$100 }

Without doing any math, I would have guessed a $1000 risked three way would off-set $1000 risked heads up but I see I was over optimistic.

So Hero should never risk more heads up than he risks three-way. As a cushion for errors in villain reads, I wouldn't risk more than $3,000 in the heads up pot because I think the heads up guy is more than 50-50 to be the one with a set.

DrStrange

 

[Chicken Rob]

So rob, your cutoff in the op would be 5k then... (10k total pot with 1k pf/short stack/your own money, 4k from nut 1, and matching 5k from nut 2)?

That looks right. I didn't bother to do the pot math, but stacking off getting 2:1 feel reasonable against these 2 in this spot to me.