What do you think about this hand?? (1 Viewer)

Continuing,

Hero calls.

Villain tables 99

Board runs out 2c, 4h. Villains hand holds, game breaks.

Thank you all for your input and thoughts.
 
Continuing,

Hero calls.

Villain tables 99

Board runs out 2c, 4h. Villains hand holds, game breaks.

Thank you all for your input and thoughts.


I think the key mistakes here were made preflop and with the continuation bet. If you make a pot sized bet on the flop and he comes over the top for 100ish you can seriously consider folding.
 
To start - it helps to allow more time between streets. There is a lot to digest plus people commonly visit the forum once or twice a day.

Second, I seem to have missed what the plan was with the $6 c-bet. In a regular group, this can be very important. I think this line is at the root of hero's problem. The micro c-bet might induce foolish reactions. However, Hero's three-bet exposes the true nature of the micro bet and yet, villain jammed anyway.

As noted in my other post in this thread, Hero should be alarmed if villain check raises. Now Hero faces not only a check raise but also a 4-bet jam. So lets see what hands we can give villain to take that line. Me? I am hair on fire alarmed.

There is always a chance of a bluff. It is a difficult board to semi-bluff. By the time the villain 4-bets, he has to expect a call. (well I think so anyway) I rate this something less than 5% but never impossible.

Villain could hold a set - yes even KK and AA. *** I *** wouldn't be that TAG villain. I feast on LAG raises by punishing them with stiff raises preflop. But other people can decide to slow play and trap.

Same thing with AK. Some people 3-bet from bad position, some don't

99 seems right down the middle of the fairway.

A9s is also plausible. top and bottom pair looks pretty good vs a LAG raise. Maybe a little over played, maybe not.

AQ or worse is hardly better than a bluff if villain is skilled and Hero doesn't have a LAGtard reputation.

There are five ways to make a set given Hero holds blockers. There are four AK combinations. There are two A9s holdings. Let's give villain one bluff / big ace hand. In very rough terms that is five losses, four pushes and three wins. Hero is getting almost 3-1 on a call - way better than the odds hero expects to face. So this is a call for me.

This last "easy" decision was predicated on earlier decisions that let hero get trapped into a disaster hand.

Changing the preflop and betting bigger seems like a good idea, but it wouldn't help in this hand much.

The c-bet was the foundation to the 3-bet decision (I would have folded to a check raise following a "Normal" sized c-bet) - hero's fancy play turns into a major mistake.

I score it this way:
Preflop is a B
Flop micro c-bet into a six way pot is an F
Flop 3-bet is dubious, but the fault mostly can be laid at the feet of the c-bet fancy play. Graded B-
Flop call of the all-in is an A. The math is there, Hero was already in a difficult situation.

DrStrange
 
Is there a chance that the villain is a PCF member? I have a question or two that might prove illuminating.

I wonder what villain is thinking as the flop betting unfolds.

What does he/she make of the $6 micro c-bet?

How alarming is Hero's 3-bet? Does Hero have a 3-bet bluffing range? Or is the 3-bet always for business? Hero isn't betting a reasonable draw. His "business" range is no more than AA, KK, AK and A9(s?). six combos that crush villain (hero holds 95% equity), nine AK hands with 20% equity and one A9s with 10% equity. Yes, villain is crushing that range, but still it seems like a time to take stock before acting.

I don't have the impression that villain gave much thought to the action. Villain seemed more focused on his check-raise trap than the trap Hero laid. It would be interesting to know what villain was thinking here and how he/she perceives hero.

May never know, but inquiring minds were curious none-the-less -=- DrStrange
 
Is there a chance that the villain is a PCF member?

The villain is me. To answer your questions...

Leading up to the hand in question, Hero had experienced some frustration during the night. Some badish beats. We were involved in a hand perhaps an hour earlier where I called him down with AJ on a J high board to take the pot. I don't recall the pf action on that hand, but my thoughts at that time was hero was steaming a bit and wanting to push me off hand. He likely raised the J high flop on my c-bet.

On the hand in question, I was confident I could get my 10x to setmine. I was confident hero would c-bet if checked to.

What does he/she make of the $6 micro c-bet?

I didn't make much of the small c-bet. @chipjoker c-bets often and sometimes does have a tendency to c-bet small. I didn't take it as an indicator of slow playing strength. Maybe a slight indicator of slight weakness. I felt it likely he had an A or "I know I'm supposed to c-bet here."

How alarming is Hero's 3-bet? Does Hero have a 3-bet bluffing range? Or is the 3-bet always for business? Hero isn't betting a reasonable draw. His "business" range is no more than AA, KK, AK and A9(s?). six combos that crush villain (hero holds 95% equity), nine AK hands with 20% equity and one A9s with 10% equity. Yes, villain is crushing that range, but still it seems like a time to take stock before acting.

I don't have the impression that villain gave much thought to the action. Villain seemed more focused on his check-raise trap than the trap Hero laid. It would be interesting to know what villain was thinking here and how he/she perceives hero.

His 3-bet wasn't alarming, but a pleasant surprise. Hero thought for a while... maybe a minute after my checkraise before he raised to 100. Based on the delay, I eliminated AA and KK from his holdings. I didn't think he had A9 because I held two 9s. I don't see any bluffs here... unless he was really tilting. I put him on exactly AK.

He tanked again after I jammed. At that point I was certain he had AK.

I think had hero immediately raised to 80/100 after my c/r, I would have given pause. I think we would have gotten it in on the turn and I would expect to lose about half the time.
 
Continuing,

Hero calls.

Villain tables 99

Board runs out 2c, 4h. Villains hand holds, game breaks.

Thank you all for your input and thoughts.

Still think a call in that spot was the right play. You just probably wouldn't be bothering to tell the story had he tabled something other than 99.
 

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