Weird ICM spot (1 Viewer)

[Thomacetti]

I think it's a good question and everybody here is being too dismissive.
Chipleader has 340K, the other three of you have 130K combined, and you have the biggest piece of that. You very probably could have just stayed out of shit for a few minutes and finished second for $1,000 instead of $400. You almost definitely could have nit your way up to $600 if you folded there. And you certainly couldn't have done any worse than you did. It's a fair question.

With QQ you have 2/3 advantage....sure, you will not win every hand but calling is always EV+ (in the long run).
If you are playing to take it down (like you should)...these are the hands to do it with

Nitting it down will often result in this: one or both shorties (besides you) flip a double up from big stack...big stack steals 2 or 3 BB's from you and then by some miracle you get pockets or drawing hand...shove and villain sucks out. Then I prefer going out with QQ

 

[kirchhausen]

Somebody please make sure my math is correct.

Before the hand, the equity ICM equity is below:

If you call and win, your ICM equity increases to $1039.08

If you call and lose, your equity is $457.41

If you Fold your equity is 767.83

I think the math is 65% X $1039.08 + 35% X 457.41 =$835.51. Since that is higher than $767.83 (ICM equity when folding) you should call.

 

[kirchhausen]

Somebody please make sure my math is correct.

Before the hand, the equity ICM equity is below:

View attachment 789261

If you call and win, your ICM equity increases to $1039.08

View attachment 789264

If you call and lose, your equity is $457.41

View attachment 789265

If you Fold your equity is 767.83

View attachment 789268

I think the math is 65% X $1039.08 + 35% X 457.41 =$835.51. Since that is higher than $767.83 (ICM equity when folding) you should call.

That is, assuming of course, everyone is of the same skill level blah blah blah, and that you think you are a 65% favorite when making the call.

 

[upNdown]

Somebody please make sure my math is correct.

Before the hand, the equity ICM equity is below:

View attachment 789261

If you call and win, your ICM equity increases to $1039.08

View attachment 789264

If you call and lose, your equity is $457.41

View attachment 789265

If you Fold your equity is 767.83

View attachment 789268

I think the math is 65% X $1039.08 + 35% X 457.41 =$835.51. Since that is higher than $767.83 (ICM equity when folding) you should call.

I'm not a strong math guy. I would just ask if this is the right approach, since an equity of 400 is actually equal to zero, here. Does that make a difference?

 

[kirchhausen]

I think the same theory would apply if the other player had him covered. If he lost, his equity would be 400, and if he won, it would be something much higher. But the losing equity calculation is only one half of the equation.

 

[kirchhausen]

In her case, if she was facing the all-in and was a 65% dog, if she had lost, she would have been out in 3rd. $400 equity * 65% If she won, she would have been at 35% x $1015. so her equity is $615.47 to call. Her equity if she folds is $747. So she should clearly fold if she thinks she is a 35% dog.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

I think 65% equity is a bit too low fwiw. I think you’re looking at closer to 70% against even very tight players but I guess it’s not unheard of for certain people to play very tight and to also play the lower parts of their range as limps.

99 on the other hand is definitely close against nitty players as per those calculations. Basically 55% equity is where you break even and you’d probably want a bit more if you thought you were the better player.

 

[JustinInMN]

Blinds are now 2.5k/5k no ante. Chipleader is UTG with about 340k, he folds. Button shoves her last 47k, and hero is in SB with 52.5k total. BB has about 30k. Hero looks down and has QQ. Now normally this is an obvious snap call, but I was wondering if ICM considerations ever make this a potential fold.

So my instinct is this is a call, but I am glad this is a discussion.

I wouldn't consider hero's lead in chip count to be huge over either villain. Hero has about 10BB, villain has 9BB, and short stack has 6BB. Short stack is still a double up from second position. At the current stakes, hero and button each have about 6 orbits left, and it reality, less as the blinds will increase a couple times before 6 orbits complete. So when will hero expect to have a better hand than QQ to defend with in this spot? If you are folding QQ, then you are only defending with KK and AA, and the odds of getting that in the final 20 hands or so before being blinded out, is pretty remote. Not to mention during that time, if the other players win their spots where they gamble, hero is heading for 4th place anyway. (Also not to mention, KK and AA get beat sometimes too.) Hero makes the stand now and wins, he probably assures himself at least second place and now has 19 BB, a far more comfortable stack to try and wait out the 6BB short stack. Hero doesn't make the stand now, he may not find another chance to compete for second place if the other villains win their confrontations when they get forced in, that also requires some fortune.

There are probably situations I would consider folding QQ. If hero is facing a bet and a call where a short stack is at risk, I could see that fold. Hero has a real shot at a jump to 3rd place in that situation. If the short stack were down to 2-3 BB, I would feel a little better about waiting it out with 10BB, but that would still be nervy. But as hero, I don't think a single short-stack open is enough to make me want to fold a hand this good. I would rather lose here, than watch the others possibly gain chips and force me into a far less palatable all in survival where I can end up in 4th place anyway.

Someone can do the math here, but if I were to guess a range, I think I am calling it off here with TT+ and AQ+. I expect button is probably shoving at least AT+ and probably 88+, maybe even KQ.

 

[JustinInMN]

Just realized this, if hero folds, he his now in 3rd place and if the short stack gets a double-up, hero will be in 4th place.

 

[InstinctPro]

Yeah I don't know how folding is the answer when you are very short.