Turned boat, line check/river decision (1 Viewer)

[Dugthefish]

.25-.50 weekly home game. Lots of multiway action, many players just don't fold.

Hero BB $400, generally seen as TAG/nitty but has been opening his game up the last few months. Running hot.

V1 BTN $250 TAG reg, fairly straightforward ABC player

V2 SB $200 bad LAG, plays way too many hands, not afraid to make big bets with marginal hands.

V3 MP $90, weak loose passive fish

UTG straddle $1. V3 calls, V1 raises 6, V2 calls, Hero calls 66, UTG fish calls, V3 calls.

$30 Flop 986

Checks to V1, who bets $8. V2 calls, Hero calls, UTG folds, V3 calls.

$62 Turn 9869

V2 bets $12, H calls, V3 raises to $25, V1 folds, V2 calls, H calls.

$137 98692

V2 bets $30, H ???

 

[natumes]

Easy raise, and I'm calling any jams happily.

 

[MrCatPants]

.25-.50 weekly home game. Lots of multiway action, many players just don't fold.

Hero BB $400, generally seen as TAG/nitty but has been opening his game up the last few months. Running hot.

V1 BTN $250 TAG reg, fairly straightforward ABC player

V2 SB $200 bad LAG, plays way too many hands, not afraid to make big bets with marginal hands.

V3 MP $90, weak loose passive fish

UTG straddle $1. V3 calls, V1 raises 6, V2 calls, Hero calls 66, UTG fish calls, V3 calls.

$30 Flop 986

Checks to V1, who bets $8. V2 calls, Hero calls, UTG folds, V3 calls.

$62 Turn 9869

V2 bets $12, H calls, V3 raises to $25, V1 folds, V2 calls, H calls.

$137 98692

V2 bets $30, H ???

So you've still got V3 behind you, the "weak loose passive fish" who raised the turn, who is yet to act? What hands does a weak loose passive fish raise that turn with?

 

[JustinInMN]

V2 SB $200 bad LAG, plays way too many hands, not afraid to make big bets with marginal hands.

Yeah if this is your read on V2, I would raise the river as played. You have so under-repped your hand here I think you go for the extra value from a probable V2 flush here.

However, I think you left chips on the table by flatting the turn. I think the bare and can call raises on this street that can't call the river if it isn't a club.

The only realistic hands that beat you are 98 and 88, (and I suppose very rarely the one combo of ) and I think you just pay that off if it happens. You don't make hero folds against LAGs, and you go for value raises that might be thin against tighter bettors.

There are certainly villain's against which I think flatting in this spot makes sense, your read on V2 isn't that sort of villain. Nice hand if he has you beat, but I think the raise here shows a profit because I don't think V2 is making a considered laydown with a flush here.

 

[grebe]

.25-.50 weekly home game. Lots of multiway action, many players just don't fold.

Hero BB $400, generally seen as TAG/nitty but has been opening his game up the last few months. Running hot.

V1 BTN $250 TAG reg, fairly straightforward ABC player

V2 SB $200 bad LAG, plays way too many hands, not afraid to make big bets with marginal hands.

V3 MP $90, weak loose passive fish

UTG straddle $1. V3 calls, V1 raises 6, V2 calls, Hero calls 66, UTG fish calls, V3 calls.

$30 Flop 986

Checks to V1, who bets $8. V2 calls, Hero calls, UTG folds, V3 calls.

$62 Turn 9869

V2 bets $12, H calls, V3 raises to $25, V1 folds, V2 calls, H calls.

$137 98692

V2 bets $30, H ???

Raise....too many hands that you can get a call from that we beat. Only really scary hand here is 89 right? Maybe 88. Lots of AcX that will call/raise....lots of naked 9's that will call

 

[grebe]

However, I think you left chips on the table by flatting the turn. I think the bare and can call raises on this street that can't call the river if it isn't a club.

Oh yeah, and this....

 

[JustinInMN]

Well I would say V3 is yet to act, that might actually be a good argument for flatting the river here. It might be better to go for a wide call from V3, than raise V2, and it does provide some insurance if one of them has a better full house. But my instinct is both players have a flush and raising as hero maximizes the chance at a big payoff.

 

[JustinInMN]

lots of naked 9's that will call

Even loose players turtle up with dry trips if there is four to a suit on the board. But I think both villians have flushes.

 

[grebe]

Even loose players turtle up with dry trips if there is four to a suit on the board. But I think both villians have flushes.

fair. I still think you can get a call out of one "bluff catching".

 

[FordPickup92]

It's tough to do these without knowing knowing players in person
My initial comment was with that hand I'm probably reraising the turn going heads up to the river. There's quads, 88/98 boat or straight flush available that beats you. The way you've played it here, I would call with a third player behind you at this point. Let them kill themselves slowly. If you get a raise behind on the river you fold or jam imo. You could jam now, which will prevent the 3rd player raise most likely, but if they have a super wide range anything is possible.
If you raise on the turn and get to heads up with that board you can check bet or jam the river too, they're already pot committed at that point so likely getting a call to any bet.
However if you reraise the turn and get 2 callers or a jam from one of them you know where you are.
Depends on your play and theirs honestly. If their track record is playing too many hands, playing weak hands, or over valuing marginal hands as mentioned above you're probably safe with assuming they're fighting over a flush.

 

[MrCatPants]

You've got the turn aggressor yet to act behind you - this feels like one of those situations that if you're ahead, your raise would likely get folds from the other two players (maybe v2 calls you with the but probably nothing else - v3 can't call that action without a boat I don't think) and if you're behind a raise is hanging yourself.

I think best value here is trying to drag along V3 to encourage a call.

But without knowing the players - you describe V3 as a weak loose passive - in my book, that means he's a calling station and generally not raising without the nuts or close to it multi-way.

 

[FordPickup92]

So you've still got V3 behind you, the "weak loose passive fish" who raised the turn, who is yet to act? What hands does a weak loose passive fish raise that turn with?

89 or 57 suited because that's what fish do lol for me in a cash game, a $6 dollar raise I'm probably not calling with those hands preflop and that many players
You can probably put v1 on AK suited or pocket 8s

 

[MrCatPants]

89 or 57 suited because that's what fish do lol for me in a cash game, a $6 dollar raise I'm probably not calling with those hands preflop and that many players
You can probably put v1 on AK suited or pocket 8s

I agree. Expecting him to show up with 98 given the action.

 

[FordPickup92]

You've got the turn aggressor yet to act behind you - this feels like one of those situations that if you're ahead, your raise would likely get folds from the other two players (maybe v2 calls you with the but probably nothing else - v3 can't call that action without a boat I don't think) and if you're behind a raise is hanging yourself.

I think best value here is trying to drag along V3 to encourage a call.

I'd be happy with folds around on the turn. If the raise on the turn is $25 and you pop it to $50 here you're either getting folds around or someone calling with the better hand. It's a scary spot for me, I think the way op has played it just calling will either scoop a decent pot or lose the minimum by not betting too aggressively

 

[JustinInMN]

I'd be happy with folds around on the turn. If the raise on the turn is $25 and you pop it to $50 here you're either getting folds around or someone calling with the better hand. It's a scary spot for me, I think the way op has played it just calling will either scoop a decent pot or lose the minimum by not betting too aggressively

The more I have thought about this (admittedly the luxury of time not found in the moment of play, but hey, that's what strategy threads are for) the more I really prefer the raise on the turn for a couple reasons.

1) Single clubs and 9x can still call bets on this street at the same time, one of these groups is going to be disappointed based on the suit of the river card.
2) Bottom full is usually going to end up the best hand, but it has vulnerabilities, namely another 9 or 8 coming off. You might as well try and charge the players that would benefit from these cards.

And I do think since the read on both villains is they are loose, they are going to pay off wide enough to justify the raise. I think on the turn, it's far from the situation where only better hands are calling. Against tighter villains, maybe, I would be a little more worried about that on the river when really 6s full is the hand one pip better than the nut flush (unless somehow someone got to the river with 22 and no club in hand.)

 

[FordPickup92]

Op also describes himself as TAG/nitty so playing passively would show weakness to other players imo, which is good if we're facing flushes
However, if we're facing something else and op has been opening his range playing more aggressively may cause them to think about it a little more carefully
Particularly if one of the other players is holding 88 this could provide an image of op holding 89
And could possibly still get called down by a non believing AK flush

 

[JustinInMN]

Particularly if one of the other players is holding 88 this could provide an image of op holding 89

And I agree to this point, there's no good reason to dismiss these hands as possible for either villain. If a lot of flushes are in villain's ranges so are these better full houses for sure. It's just a question of what percentage is full houses and what are flushes. There are certainly fewer combos of full houses available.

Even giving villain 98o and 98s that's only 6 combos in total. Plus 3 combos of 88. (and the two combos of straight flush means a worst case of 11 combos that beat hero.)

As for flushes, I think all of the "two clubs bigger than 10 combos" are in both villain's ranges (remember both villains were preflop callers, not raisers), not to mention all the one-card flushes involving at the least the or .

If the villains were tight enough where we could cut down the flush list. (Perhaps tight enough to fold the single on this flop or calling with few single hands against a raise preflop, for example) I think the decision becomes close and maybe gets tipped to a call. But the list of possibilities makes full houses relatively scarce compared to flushes in my estimation, so I think going for the raise is the better decision most of the time.

 

[MrCatPants]

And I agree to this point, there's no good reason to dismiss these hands as possible for either villain. If a lot of flushes are in villain's ranges so are these better full houses for sure. It's just a question of what percentage is full houses and what are flushes. There are certainly fewer combos of full houses available.

Even giving villain 98o and 98s that's only 6 combos in total. Plus 3 combos of 88. (and the two combos of straight flush means a worst case of 11 combos that beat hero.)

As for flushes, I think all of the "two clubs bigger than 10 combos" are in both villain's ranges (remember both villains were preflop callers, not raisers), not to mention all the one-card flushes involving at the least the or .

If the villains were tight enough where we could cut down the flush list. (Perhaps tight enough to fold the single on this flop or calling with few single hands against a raise preflop, for example) I think the decision becomes close and maybe gets tipped to a call. But the list of possibilities makes full houses relatively scarce compared to flushes in my estimation, so I think going for the raise is the better decision most of the time.

Heads up I'd agree - but with two players, and V3 as the turn aggressor, I think the odds of a A high flush and a King high flush being the other two hands are very low. Maybe a naked 9 out there? But that hand is going to fold to any aggression, and shouldn't be leading out a 4-to-a-flush river.

Someone's got a better boat here. And if they don't, your raise wouldn't get called anyway.

 

[Dugthefish]

Some good comments here. My thought process on turn was along the lines of not wanting to drive out either player with a big raise, which happens a lot with my image. V2 was the one I wanted, since he had the bigger stack.

V2 can be bet calling super wide OTT, any 9, a made flush, a flush draw.

V3 is a really inexperienced player who probably gets a lot of his game theories from watching High Stakes Poker. He min click raises in weird spots and almost always calls off.

On the river, I couldn't decide if calling to get the extra $30 from V3 (he almost definitely calls here with any club) was worth more than trying to get stacks in with V2 (who could maybe fold less than the nut flush). In the end, I jammed, V3 tank folded (showed J), V2 snapped with quad 9s.

 

[FordPickup92]

Some good comments here. My thought process on turn was along the lines of not wanting to drive out either player with a big raise, which happens a lot with my image. V2 was the one I wanted, since he had the bigger stack.

V2 can be bet calling super wide OTT, any 9, a made flush, a flush draw.

V3 is a really inexperienced player who probably gets a lot of his game theories from watching High Stakes Poker. He min click raises in weird spots and almost always calls off.

On the river, I couldn't decide if calling to get the extra $30 from V3 (he almost definitely calls here with any club) was worth more than trying to get stacks in with V2 (who could maybe fold less than the nut flush). In the end, I jammed, V3 tank folded (showed J), V2 snapped with quad 9s.

Ouch
On the turn if you raise and had gotten a fold and a call, are you able to check fold to a bet against V2 on the river?

 

[FordPickup92]

I also think for me personally that's a pretty easy fold to an $8 bet on the flop. With the knowledge of the players I can see how coming along with a set for $8 to pair the board is feasible, but you almost have to assume multi handed even if you boat someone else is likely drawing to a bigger boat. So if you decide to commit to it, raising the the turn or jamming like you did is the more aggressive way to play that.
Imo while the turn raise may scare away easy money, it also gives you some information about the other player in the pot. Which makes check folding easier on the river.

 

[Dugthefish]

Ouch
On the turn if you raise and had gotten a fold and a call, are you able to check fold to a bet against V2 on the river?

Probably not. I think it ends the same with a turn raise. The only point I could have saved money was with a river call.

 

[JustinInMN]

V2 snapped with quad 9s.

Ooops, I did miss a combo.

Chalk this up to sometimes the fish do have it, and to collect when they don't, you have to lose pots like then when they do.

And obviously in this scenario, raising the turn probably leads to the same place.

The heart of the question is truly how many flushes are the villains paying off versus how often they have a better hand than 6s full.

I just don't like finding hero-folds against loose players, so I don't really have a problem with the river decision, even though it was a bad outcome.

 

[FordPickup92]

Probably not. I think it ends the same with a turn shove. The only point I could have saved money was with a river call.

Given the description of V2, I can see pocket 9s being an unexpected holding there. So, I'd have to agree that just calling his $30 on the river is probably the safest choice if you're possible possible be behind in the end.
Again these threads are tough not knowing the players in person, but I think even a fold on the turn is considerable. You know they're loose, so it's absolutely possible V2 could have been holding 89 and came along after the flop for the chance to pair the board, which still puts you behind.
It is tough because fish do catch unfortunately and you don't expect to lose with a strong holding like a boat to someone that loose.
I think the way the action played out up to the river just flat calling is the best choice there.

 

[upNdown]

Some good comments here. My thought process on turn was along the lines of not wanting to drive out either player with a big raise, which happens a lot with my image. V2 was the one I wanted, since he had the bigger stack.

V2 can be bet calling super wide OTT, any 9, a made flush, a flush draw.

V3 is a really inexperienced player who probably gets a lot of his game theories from watching High Stakes Poker. He min click raises in weird spots and almost always calls off.

On the river, I couldn't decide if calling to get the extra $30 from V3 (he almost definitely calls here with any club) was worth more than trying to get stacks in with V2 (who could maybe fold less than the nut flush). In the end, I jammed, V3 tank folded (showed J), V2 snapped with quad 9s.

That explains V2’s weird sizing in this hand. Could you have read into that, or is there just a lot of weird sizing in this game?

 

[FordPickup92]

That explains V2’s weird sizing in this hand. Could you have read into that, or is there just a lot of weird sizing in this game?

I noticed that, and after the turn to boot. In addition the initial raiser and bettor after the flop has now folded out

 

[Dugthefish]

That explains V2’s weird sizing in this hand. Could you have read into that, or is there just a lot of weird sizing in this game?

He's pretty good at mixing up his sizing. In game, I think i dismissed it as a probe bet. Honestly I was probably just thinking about Vegas and the Mirage lol