Tournament Hand (1 Viewer)

[trever]

New league, new players, new rules...

4 players out of 24 left in the tournament.
Cash payouts are $30, 70, 130, 250.
Points payouts are 9, 10, 11, 13.

UTG (4BB) folds
Button (14BB) folds
action on the SB (6BB) holding Kc2c
BB (28BB)

BB is a solid, aggressive player.
UTG is tight
Button's nickname is "two three"

Shove or fold?

 

[MegaTon44]

Well, SB has basically 3 hands to jam before BB comes (assuming no antes). BB is calling with ATC, so if SB thinks that's the best he's gonna see, go ahead and jam.

Personally, I fold to see my button hand (and let current UTG jam his BB and bust). If button hand sucks, jam blind on the UTG hand.

 

[DrStrange]

K2s is roughly a 35th to 40th percentile hand. In the absence of the even shorter stack playing UTG, I think this is a shove. I think Hero is almost always behind when called - so win 1.5BB uncontested seven times in ten or play for 12BB as a 33%/67% dog three times in ten.

However, UTG is even closer to death (M< 3) and will be in the blinds the next two hands. The reward for out waiting UTG is substantial - the payout schedule is really steep on the cash side.

so let's be patient and see what develops -=- DrStrange

 

[Legend5555]

If you want best chance to win, jam. If you care more about ICM and points, fold.

 

[Steve Birrer]

I think whether winning or moving up the pay scale is more important doesn't matter here. I am folding. Pressure is on UTG with his BB and SB the next two hands. Plus you have three more hands to play before you are in the blinds so could end up with a better spot. BB can call pretty broad here since even if he loses he still is the chip leader so not sure I want to play when I am probably not much of a favorite.

 

[1A25R]

UTG is tight

Don't care he folded

And SB should jam as he should be playing to win $250 and not speculating if i'ts better to be 2nd or 3rd looser

 

[Moxie Mike]

The payout and point jump from 4th to 3rd is insignificant. Hero is getting one of those places if they don't accumulate chips. In order to have a chance to win or finish 2nd, Hero must double up twice... and more than likely will need to do so in the next 10 hands.

I jam and hope the BB doesn't wake up with a callable or dominating hand. If he calls, chances are you're in a 42/58 situation which isn't awful when your tourney life is on the line.

If you double up here, your future button jam steals will much more likely to be effective. And if you double again you'll be the chip leader.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I’d shove here personally

 

[Legend5555]

From a pure EV perspective, shoving is correct. If we assume we only get called when beat, a shove is still chip profitable.

K2cc - 36.1%
All hands better (accounting for card removal) - 63.9%

All hands better would make the BB call 30.9% of the time.

.691(1bb) + .309(.361*6bb - .639*6bb) = .176bb

 

[trever]

Not much more to see here: I shoved, BB had AK and I lose.

At the time K2s seemed like a really close thing, so I'm happy to see Legend5555's numbers showing just how close it was.

My thinking was that I could live with coming in either 4th or 3rd and not care either way, but I wanted to get a decent shot at second. Shoving would let me double up to 14BB, or steal my way into 9BB (or you know, zero) which gets me back into contention.

I called out the SB as tight because he's the kind of guy who might fold both blinds and leave himself with 1/2BB in an attempt to wait me out (assuming he doesn't wake up with a hand and double) so I might have had to fold my way around again to get third, but only be left with 3BB, essentially forfeiting my shot at second.

This hand came awfully close (or maybe right on) to my line between shoving and folding, where would you have drawn your line?
For the folders, what is the worst hand that you would have shoved with here?
For the shovers, what's the best hand that you'd have folded?

 

[1A25R]

This hand came awfully close (or maybe right on) to my line between shoving and folding, where would you have drawn your line?

On a preflop against 3 players I'll draw the line at call between 15 and 10 BB in late position, shove with less than 10 BB. Fold all other situations

 

[DrStrange]

If Hero wins uncontested, he "steals" 1.5BB making his stack 7BB vs the 6BB he started with. the risk is not worth the reward holding K2s.

Because of the unusual situation with the shortest stack, my jamming range is quite tight. Let's say top ten percent - ATs+, AJo+, KQs, 88+ . I would not be shocked to see a mathematical justification for an even tighter jam range for Hero in this situation. Hero should be looking for situations where the big blind snaps off Hero's jam and is seriously behind. Winning one big blind is too small a prize to be taking a risk vis-à-vis the 4BB shortest stack.

Hero must also be mindful of ITM considerations vs expected value in terms of chips. A coin flip between busting out in 4th place or doubling up but still being in third place is not a good deal (but at times it is the best you can hope for).

 

[Legend5555]

If Hero wins uncontested, he "steals" 1.5BB making his stack 7BB vs the 6BB he started with. the risk is not worth the reward holding K2s.

Because of the unusual situation with the shortest stack, my jamming range is quite tight. Let's say top ten percent - ATs+, AJo+, KQs, 88+ . I would not be shocked to see a mathematical justification for an even tighter jam range for Hero in this situation. Hero should be looking for situations where the big blind snaps off Hero's jam and is seriously behind. Winning one big blind is too small a prize to be taking a risk vis-à-vis the 4BB shortest stack.

Hero must also be mindful of ITM considerations vs expected value in terms of chips. A coin flip between busting out in 4th place or doubling up but still being in third place is not a good deal (but at times it is the best you can hope for).

Folding is not the best play if winning the tournament is the goal, as evidenced by the math. By folding, you always lose 0.5bb, by shoving you gain 0.176bb on average. And realistically, it's probably larger than that since the BB may actually fold some weak Kings that are beating K2, and may even call with hands we beat like QJ and QT.

I did my math based on hero having 6bb at the start of the hand, thus shoving and getting a fold from the BB would only profit 1bb since hero is in the SB. And a call from the BB would represent a 6bb loss or profit.

Now when you factor in ICM and league points, then sure, a fold may be in order. I probably would even do so. But it's not like we are on the bubble. Often times I feel like people get a little too zealous about laddering up. What often isn't taken into consideration is how much better a spot the hero will be in with that extra bb or a double up; it may be worth more than a single potential move up the ladder.