Tournament Hand from Last Night

MoscowRadio

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Last night we were playing a six-handed freezeout when a particular hand comes up. First I'll give some background on the players involved:

UTG (Villain) is a tight-passive player who will almost never put in a 3-bet pre-flop. If he does you can narrow his range to exactly KK or AA. He has around 22,000 in chips.
UTG+1 is a loose calling-station who likes to gamble a lot. He's more than willing to call 4 and 5xBB raises with hands like 45, 56, or any low connecting cards. He has around 17,000 in chips.
Hero is on the button with around 43,000 in chips. Hero has a reputation for raising light at times so may not get credit for a lot of his opening hands.

Blinds are 200/400 and Villain opens the pot for 1,500. UTG+1 calls and Hero looks down at :9c::tc: and decides to 3-bet to 4,300. Hero's thinking is that he can squeeze UTG+1 off of his more than likely incredibly marginal hand and get the pot heads-up in position. Surprisingly, Villain 4-bets makes it 8,500 to go, UTG+1 folds and Hero goes into the tank for a minute. Here is Hero's thought process:

There is 14,900 in the pot and Hero is getting around 3.5:1 on a call and is holding a hand that can flop a lot of draws, is disguised, and that Villain will commit a lot, if not all of his chips if things go Hero's way. Hero calls and we go to the flop which is:

:ad::jh::8s:

Villain thinks for a second and shoves for his remaining 8,500. Pot is now 27,600, so Hero is getting a little better than 3:1 on his money and if Villain has AA Hero has around 28% equity. If Hero calls he will be left with around 26,000 in chips (65 BBs). Hero also thinks that this is one of the best flops he can hope for.

Thoughts?

EDIT: Sorry for the error in math guys. I was fielding emails and a phone call while writing this which was pretty dumb of me. Thanks to Ben and Paulo for helping me to correct this.
 
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onerand

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Call. Half of opponents stack went in preflop; it is a call with any piece.
 

Ben

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I don't dislike the preflop squeeze here against a villain who may fold very high quality hands in this spot - but then a villain who ONLY 3-bets with AA/KK 4-bets for half his stack - effectively a shove as it's all going in on any flop we can assume. This is a snap fold, nothing else you need to know, there are no odds to worry about, no ranges to consider, do not pass go, do not collect $200. Anything other than folding here is very, very bad, sorry to say.

On the flop hero is getting over 3 to 1 on his money (after villain shoves pot is 27,600) and is just under a 3 to 1 dog against what we KNOW is AAA. Having gotten himself into this mess, hero can't exactly think about folding to preserve his stack at this point. It's a mathematical call, so call.
 

MoscowRadio

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In hindsight I see that the preflop call was bad given the effective stack sizes. I wasn't thinking so much about pot odds as I was implied odds.
 

courage

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Agree with Ben's points. Also, players are deepstacked and better spots can be found.
 

Mr Tree

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Six outs with two cards to come hits exactly 24.1% of the time making you a 3.15:1 dog. Even worse though is the fact that the villain (who may as well be playing with his pocket AA on his forehead) will have the board pair making a boat 38% of the time with two draws. I actually think you can still make the argument to fold even on the flop.

I absolutely loathe the preflop raise/call against THIS opponent.
 

ChaosRock

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I don't dislike the squeeze either but given description of the players I would probably call more often in this spot... Likely to get paid by Villains AA/KK/AK on a favorable flop for us and could get one, maybe more streets of value from UTG+1... Would have liked both callers to be a bit deeper, but I think either play is fine...

Once Hero gets 4-bet, Villains range is pretty much AA/KK maybe some QQs/AKs... Given his 4-bet sizing though it's actually a pretty close 'call or fold' scenario if he also has some AKs... Even without AKs, we're not that far behind odds-wise... Regardless, I like a fold better here and wait for better spots... But i don't believe it's very, very, very bad: We're getting 3.5/1 and even without AKs in his range, we have around 22% equity... Again, for a live tournament, it's a fold imo... For multi-tabling, you might want to go for thinner edges...

After his push, we have enough equity to call even if against a flopped set of As and even better if against AK/KKs...

I don't dislike the preflop squeeze here against a villain who may fold very high quality hands in this spot - but then a villain who ONLY 3-bets with AA/KK 4-bets for half his stack - effectively a shove as it's all going in on any flop we can assume. This is a snap fold, nothing else you need to know, there are no odds to worry about, no ranges to consider, do not pass go, do not collect $200. Anything other than folding here is very, very bad, sorry to say.

On the flop hero is getting over 3 to 1 on his money (after villain shoves pot is 27,600) and is just under a 3 to 1 dog against what we KNOW is AAA. Having gotten himself into this mess, hero can't exactly think about folding to preserve his stack at this point. It's a mathematical call, so call.
 

Ben

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Six outs with two cards to come hits exactly 24.1% of the time making you a 3.15:1 dog. Even worse though is the fact that the villain (who may as well be playing with his pocket AA on his forehead) will have the board pair making a boat 38% of the time with two draws. I actually think you can still make the argument to fold even on the flop.

...Except we have 8 outs. ;)

The magic math machine says that hero has exactly 25.86% equity in this pot. The magic math machine is never wrong.
 

Mr Tree

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...Except we have 8 outs. ;)

The magic math machine says that hero has exactly 25.86% equity in this pot. The magic math machine is never wrong.

Oh yeah, why the hell was I thinking 6? 8 outs hit 31.5% making it a 2.17/1 dog hand before factoring in boating/quadding potential so 25.86 sounds right.
 

Ben

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We're getting 3.5/1 and even without AKs in his range, we have around 22% equity...

Apples and oranges here - we're getting 3.5 to 1 NOW but the rest of villain's stack is still to go in, giving us nowhere near the right odds. If you're looking at it like that, we're getting 3.5 to 1 to flop at least 2 pair or an OESFD, which happens much less than 22% of the time...
 

ChaosRock

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You're right Ben, but I'm not getting too much below 22% for a flopped FD, OESD, 2P+...

Apples and oranges here - we're getting 3.5 to 1 NOW but the rest of villain's stack is still to go in, giving us nowhere near the right odds. If you're looking at it like that, we're getting 3.5 to 1 to flop at least 2 pair or an OESFD, which happens much less than 22% of the time...
 
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ChaosRock

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Ben, I was just ball parking Hero's stack-off flop odds since I didn't have Flopzilla in front on me...

Now I'm home and I'm actually getting almost 25%... That includes made hands 2P+ (5%), Flush Draws (11%), OESD (9%), Double Gutter (1%), etc... Of course, all is made easier knowing our Villain has AA/KK and he has only half-pot bet left behind...

To me, it's still a FOLD to his 4-bet, but as I was trying to convey, it seems a lot closer than it looks when getting 3.5/1...

Being the donk that I am, I'm sure I'm making mistakes somewhere but the numbers seem okay, right?




Apples and oranges here - we're getting 3.5 to 1 NOW but the rest of villain's stack is still to go in, giving us nowhere near the right odds. If you're looking at it like that, we're getting 3.5 to 1 to flop at least 2 pair or an OESFD, which happens much less than 22% of the time...
 

Mental Nomad

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In hindsight I see that the preflop call was bad given the effective stack sizes. I wasn't thinking so much about pot odds as I was implied odds.

I think that's the main take-away, here. When making a play with a middle suited connector, you're counting on the implied odds of getting paid off if your flop comes. This means you MUST make sure your opponent has the implied money to bet (and that you also have the implied money to bet.)

Once you got into this spot on the turn, whether the call is +EV or -EV depends on what cards you put the villain on. It's probably very close to neutral. To me, the call is a bit of a gamble.

I'd decide based less on whether it's slight + or - EV, but rather on how I feel about the rest of the tournament. Who else is left? Can I out-play them? If so, maybe fold and use the money where it isn't just a gamble. But if the others are all really solid players? Maybe I'm as well off calling and taking the gamble; if I win, the bigger stack may give me the necessary edge to win.
 

DrStrange

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Hero makes a series of poor decisions, perhaps none of them huge in isolation but cumulatively Hero gets all of his money in as a 3-1 to 4-1 dog. How did this happen?

a) Hero forgot his villain read. Tight passive raising UTG in a six handed game.
b) The stacks are deep (Villain's M ~50), Hero has a nice hand for deep stacks.
When Hero 3-bets, he opens the door for villain to get to a low SPR situation - a place where villain's decision making will be very good. Hero's hand is tricky and benefits from fold equity created by leverage (the threat of future bets). Hero might be able to bluff villain off a naked AA after the flop if he just limps.
c) Hero really forgot his villain reads after the 4-bet. Now the villain has too much commitment not to shove most flops (or check/call). Hero's hand has little or no fold equity vs villain's AA/KK no matter what the flop because the SPR is less than one.
d) hero gets seduced into the flop call because the numbers are close and villain ***might*** be playing something other than AA

I score the hand this way:
Preflop 3-bet = D
Call preflop 4-bet = F
Call flop shove = B-

This would have been a problem hand for hero anyway he went about it (aside from folding to the first bet preflop). If Hero limps and a multiway pot ensues, hero is going to be tempted to raise villain's flop-cbet and I suspect things would have run out about the same way. So maybe Hero did make a mess of the preflop play, but the end result likely was not going to be much changed by the fancy play.

DrStrange

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

Plus we don't know that Hero lost the hand. He has fair equity, so maybe things turned out great!
 

Ben

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Ben, I was just ball parking Hero's stack-off flop odds since I didn't have Flopzilla in front on me...

Now I'm home and I'm actually getting almost 25%... That includes made hands 2P+ (5%), Flush Draws (11%), OESD (9%), Double Gutter (1%), etc... Of course, all is made easier knowing our Villain has AA/KK and he has only half-pot bet left behind...

To me, it's still a FOLD to his 4-bet, but as I was trying to convey, it seems a lot closer than it looks when getting 3.5/1...

Being the donk that I am, I'm sure I'm making mistakes somewhere but the numbers seem okay, right?

The numbers are fine, but I claim that flopping a bare OESD or FD is NOT a desirable result in this scenario. Having made the call preflop and having flopped an OESD, it is correct for hero to call it off (barely,) but only because hero has made it so with the preflop call. Having flopped an OESD, hero is still a 3-1 dog and shoveling his chips in, which is what the villain wants, not what he wants. If considering the preflop call as a 3.5 to 1 proposition, hero need to flop 50% equity (approximately) one in 4.5 times, and THAT isn't close. It's pretty much the same math as taking villain's 4-bet as a shove and considering our overall equity over 5 cards, just a different (and much more complicated) way of looking at it.
 

ChaosRock

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Thanks for your response Ben! My apologies but I'm not sure I'm 100% there yet... Sorry...

Assuming we are NOT in a home tourney setting, and we are just playing math-based cash poker in conjunction with our reads, that's how I'd look at this hand after we get 4-bet:


Villain has AA/KK. He'll shove any flop. Hero would be getting 3.25/1 on Villains shove. Hero needs 24%+ equity for a profitable all-in call. What flopped hands could give Hero this sort of equity against Villains AA/KK? I would argue 2P(T9)+ , FD, OESD would give Hero 25%+ equity. Now, pre-flop, what are the chances of Hero flopping 2P(T9)+, FD, OESD? Math tells me 25%+. What kind of odds is Villain's 4-bet giving to Hero's call? 3.5/1 or 22%. So based on pure math, and Hero's read of Villans range, that should be a call...

I understand the dynamics of tournament and that there would be better spots to make a move, so that's why I think it should be a fold to Villain's 4-bet imo... But based on math alone, it should be a call, or at least pretty close...


My apologies again if I'm repeating myself, but I learn A LOT from you guys and would love to get a better understanding where my reasoning is failing as I'm sure it is...



If my donkiness is polluting the thread, just tell me to FO and I'll quit writing
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The numbers are fine, but I claim that flopping a bare OESD or FD is NOT a desirable result in this scenario. Having made the call preflop and having flopped an OESD, it is correct for hero to call it off (barely,) but only because hero has made it so with the preflop call. Having flopped an OESD, hero is still a 3-1 dog and shoveling his chips in, which is what the villain wants, not what he wants. If considering the preflop call as a 3.5 to 1 proposition, hero need to flop 50% equity (approximately) one in 4.5 times, and THAT isn't close. It's pretty much the same math as taking villain's 4-bet as a shove and considering our overall equity over 5 cards, just a different (and much more complicated) way of looking at it.
 
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MoscowRadio

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I kind of got taken to school in this thread, but that's why I posted it in the first place.

When Hero flops an open-ender with the odds he's getting, mathematically it's kind of a forced call even if Villain has his AA face-up and stuck to his forehead.

***Results***

Hero calls and Villain turns over KK (!). Turn comes Qx and Hero stacks Villain.

Here's what I'm taking with me the most from this thread:

-When considering implied odds, make sure that effective stacks will be enough to pay you off.
-NEVER give Villain this opportunity again. The good Dr. Strange did what I hoped he'd do and brought up Villain's SPR. I'm gonna go write "don't give Villain a stack-to-pot ratio of >1 with this hand" over and over on a chalkboard a la Bart Simpson.
-While I still like the 3-bet in position with my hand, folding was the obvious thing to do after Villain 4-bets.
-Beat your head against Ed Miller books until something either makes sense or a concussion occurs.

Thank you all for your input. Looking back on it I knew that this play was all wrong and I just wanted to pick your guys' brains about it.

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If my donkiness is polluting the thread, just tell me to FO and I'll quit writing
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It is indeed my donkiness that reeks here, Paulo; no one else's.
 

DrStrange

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Hero turned out to be better off than expected - villain has no redraws and here had runner-runner outs to two pair and trips.

On he other hand, Hero (or perhaps another player) would have won this hand if Hero elects to limp rather than raise. KK on an ace high flop with a ton of chips behind will often fold to Hero's post flop aggression.

This hand turns out to be a good illustration of why we try to create post flop situations that suit our hands. T9s does best with larger SPRs, KK/AA/AK hands do best with lower SPRs. T9s wins this hand many times in high SPR environments and the "big pair" type hand wins when the SPR is low and can't be folded out with aggression.

Nice post -=- DrStrange
 
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