Tournament bubble PF decision (1 Viewer)

[WedgeRock]

$40 home tournament. 13 runners with five rebuys. Blinds 4k/8k. Top 3 pays, 4 left. Only one decision to make here.

UTG is calling station-ish. Desperately wants to make the money. Stack ~40k.

Button is a solid player who knows how to play big stack bully. He will also risk his tournament if the equity is right. ~150k.

SB is pretty straightforward. ~60k

Hero is the BB with about 120k.

Preflop, UTG shoves for about 40k Button re-shoves for about 160k. SB folds. Action to hero, looks down at QQ. Call all in or fold?

 

[detroitdad]

Who is the button?

 

[WedgeRock]

UTG: Berry
Button: @Marc Hedrick
SB: Jaws Leggs

 

[detroitdad]

My chips beat his into the pot. That isn't disrespecting Marc , he'll make that move with about anything in that position. He loves applying pressure.

A very solid player

 

[WedgeRock]

I figured UTG for a hand. Agree button could play anything and the isolation shove told me he was vulnerable.

 

[detroitdad]

UTG is calling station-ish. Desperately wants to make the money. Stack ~40k.

I figured UTG for a hand.

four handed, short stack shoves first to act. He is probably doing it with almost any two cards. "If" he has something so be it. I wouldn't be concerned at all. Chips are going in the middle in this spot with Q/Q vs two players.

Marc is a great player. He will sometimes fault on the side of pure aggression. This pays off for him when he actually has something (and he has gotten a lot more selective with his aggression).

I'm not tanking at all.............Call, lose the hand, flip the table, key rake a random car, and call it a night.

 

[BGinGA]

Don't know the actual players, but I'm always folding in this specific spot.

No reason to risk your tourney life on the money bubble with the second-biggest stack while two really short stacks are left (5bb and 7.5bb) and one of them is already all-in.

Putting yourself all-in here three-handed and vs the big stack sounds really -EV to me.

 

[Frogzilla]

The short stack already being all-in makes this a very easy call for me... if I bust here still make the money a good bit of the time. Go ahead and call to setup a win of the tourney...don’t expect to find a better spot.

 

[WedgeRock]

I'm not tanking at all.....

I didn't tank. I made my decision pretty quickly and I'm wondering if it's the right one.

No reason to risk your tourney life on the money bubble with the second-biggest stack while two reallt short stacks are left (5bb and 7.5bb) and one of them is aready all-i

...and that's the other thought that went through my head. Find a fold here and likely make the money with a healthy stack.

I'll give the results today if there's no other discussion.

 

[colter ripton]

I'm not a very good tourney player. I think the correct play is probably to fold and keep your stack. It's hard to do with qq 4 handed, but the short stack is all in already and there is another short stack at the table. That said I'd probably call though lol. Like I said its 4 handed and I'm not a very good tourney player.

 

[Frogzilla]

I just crunched the ICM for a $360/$240/$120 payout.

Our stack values are as follows.
Before the hand: $223

If we fold...
...and UTG wins: $206
...and Button wins: $242

If we call...
...and win: $329
...and beat Button, but lose to UTG: $278
...lose to Button, and UTG loses to Button: $120 (3rd)
...lose to Button, and UTG beats Button: $0 (4th)

To benchmark, if we have 50% equity against both UTG and Button ranges and assume their ranges are roughly even, we are looking at
Fold: $224 (50/50 above scenarios)
Call: $195 (33/17/33/17 above scenarios)

If we have 55% equity the call is closer but still bad:
Fold: $224 (50/50)
Call: $213 (38/16/32/14)

And 60% equity we’re breakeven:
Fold: $224 (50/50)
Call: $224 (43/17/29/11)

Maybe QQ is a fold if UTG is super tight with a 5 BB stack. ICM sucks.

 

[WedgeRock]

I think it's an instacall against UTG (regardless of his stack size, this UTG is way wider than AA, KK) and an instafold against button (precisely because of his stack size). But if button is strong, he's not isolating... He's isolating because he's vulnerable... At least that was my thinking.

Thanks for the ICM numbers, @Frogzilla

 

[arch3r]

You probably have both beat pre-flop, but there are a lot of cards to come. One might suck out on you but not both.

4 outcomes if you call...
QQ holds up. you win the hand, in the money and massive chip leader (280k vs 30k and 60k ).
You beat chip leader and lose to short stack. You are now chip leader.
Chip leader wins outright, you finish third, get some cash and head over to the cash game.
Short stack wins, but chip leader also beat you on side pot. You bubble out 4th. ( highly unlikely both crack your QQ ).

I say call.

 

[doughboy63]

Logic to me says fold for the same reasons @BGinGA noted above. In the moment though, I probably have a hard time not insta calling. Curious to hear the outcome.

 

[WedgeRock]

four handed, short stack shoves first to act. He is probably doing it with almost any two cards.

Just the opposite, really. He made it to the FT of 8 with an average stack. It's whittled down since then as I don't think he's won a pot. I've under-repped my strength twice and he's tank-folded to 2nd pair to aggression. Then I liked to him about my hand strength, lol.

He thinks he has a hand. That said, A9 unsuited would be a strong hand for him to shove. That's where I think the bottom of his range is at.

 

[Irish]

Don't know the actual players, but I'm always folding in this specific spot.

No reason to risk your tourney life on the money bubble with the second-biggest stack while two really short stacks are left (5bb and 7.5bb) and one of them is already all-in.

Putting yourself all-in here three-handed and vs the big stack sounds really -EV to me.

^This^

Heads up (or even if I'm first to act after the push) it's an insta-call, but not with two all ins ahead of me on the bubble. Once in the money I'd be a little more tempted to call, but again it's a chance to move up in the money, and the big stack isn't adding that much more to his stack where it'd be impossible to make up the ground.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

4 handed? Snap call imo. If short stack wins, and both guys beat you that’s just horrible luck right there, but sometimes that happens in tournaments.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Fold. Take the free opportunity to let UTG bust out, especially with the second-biggest stack on the bubble.

 

[detroitdad]

There have been some solid points on making a fold. I'm still making the call for a couple of reasons. I play tourneys to "win". Not just to move up a pay spot (especially in these $40 tourneys). Plus I actually "know" the players.

I'm instant calling these guys in this spot with the confidence that I'm currently ahead. Yes, it might not hold up. I try not to worry about those things (maybe why I'm not that great at tourneys lol).

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'm instant calling these guys in this spot with the confidence that I'm currently ahead.

That's the thing about tournaments (and one of the reason I prefer cash games). There are a lot of spots where you can expect to be ahead most of the time, but it's still not really worth the risk to get all your chips in the middle because it's more beneficial to let your opponents try to bust each other out. This is a pretty solid example of a spot like that.

 

[detroitdad]

That's the thing about tournaments (and one of the reason I prefer cash games). There are a lot of spots where you can expect to be ahead most of the time, but it's still not really worth the risk to get all your chips in the middle because it's more beneficial to let your opponents try to bust each other out. This is a pretty solid example of a spot like that.

IMO it is worth the risk. If I lose. I'm finishing 3rd or 4th. If I win. I have put my spot in a great position to win the tourney. I'd rather have a chance at a win, then moving up to 2nd or 3rd.

I very well could be looking at it wrong, but that is how I would play it.

 

[Jimulacrum]

IMO it is worth the risk. If I lose. I'm finishing 3rd or 4th. If I win. I have put my spot in a great position to win the tourney. I'd rather have a chance at a win, then moving up to 2nd or 3rd.

I very well could be looking at it wrong, but that is how I would play it.

If you call and lose, you're finishing 4th with no money, or 3rd with a minimal cash.

If you call and win, you become chip leader by a fair margin, but hardly a lock for 1st place.

If you call and partially win (i.e., win the side pot but not the main), you'll still be on the bubble, with about the same 120K stack.

If you fold, you get to freeroll yourself into a guaranteed minimum cash if BTN wins, or freeroll yourself into being tied for the chip lead if SB wins. Zero risk, all gain.

I'll admit that it's a close decision with QQ, but against two opponents, I'd rather just let them duke it out. Especially with it being 4-handed, and potentially 3-handed after this hand, you should be looking to take down a lot of uncontested pots and avoid getting into spots that threaten your tournament life—with no fold equity to boot.

 

[detroitdad]

If you call and lose, you're finishing 4th with no money, or 3rd with a minimal cash.

If you call and win, you become chip leader by a fair margin, but hardly a lock for 1st place.

If you call and partially win (i.e., win the side pot but not the main), you'll still be on the bubble, with about the same 120K stack.

If you fold, you get to freeroll yourself into a guaranteed minimum cash if BTN wins, or freeroll yourself into being tied for the chip lead if SB wins. Zero risk, all gain.

I'll admit that it's a close decision with QQ, but against two opponents, I'd rather just let them duke it out. Especially with it being 4-handed, and potentially 3-handed after this hand, you should be looking to take down a lot of uncontested pots and avoid getting into spots that threaten your tournament life—with no fold equity to boot.

Makes perfect sense. I still almost snap call lol. I still think the UTG is shoving with any two cards and the button is a solid, but loose, and very aggressive player. Especially when he has chips.

Remind me to never play a tourney with you...damn sharks

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

If you call and lose, you're finishing 4th with no money, or 3rd with a minimal cash.

If you call and win, you become chip leader by a fair margin, but hardly a lock for 1st place.

If you call and partially win (i.e., win the side pot but not the main), you'll still be on the bubble, with about the same 120K stack.

If you fold, you get to freeroll yourself into a guaranteed minimum cash if BTN wins, or freeroll yourself into being tied for the chip lead if SB wins. Zero risk, all gain.

I'll admit that it's a close decision with QQ, but against two opponents, I'd rather just let them duke it out. Especially with it being 4-handed, and potentially 3-handed after this hand, you should be looking to take down a lot of uncontested pots and avoid getting into spots that threaten your tournament life—with no fold equity to boot.

If you call and partially win, you pick up an additional 40k chips (increasing your stack by 33%). If you call and win the whole thing you have 280k chips 3 handed vs 60k and 30k. And did I mention you have QQ 3 handed? And that shorty has only 5 bbs and big stack only 19? The odds you lose to both players AND short stack wins the main pot while you have QQ are pretty small. I think anyone seriously advocating folding this spot needs to seriously evaluate their game.

 

[Jimulacrum]

If you call and partially win, you pick up an additional 40k chips (increasing your stack by 33%). If you call and win the whole thing you have 280k chips 3 handed vs 60k and 30k. And did I mention you have QQ 3 handed? And that shorty has only 5 bbs and big stack only 19? The odds you lose to both players AND short stack wins the main pot while you have QQ are pretty small. I think anyone seriously advocating folding this spot needs to seriously evaluate their game.

You don't have to lose to both players; the bust-out outcome isn't a parlay. You only have to lose against BTN to get stacked. Winning against both players, however, is a parlay.

• lose against BTN + lose against SB = bust out (4th place)
• lose against BTN + win against SB = bust out (3rd place)
• win against BTN + lose against SB = partial win (modest stack gain)
• win against BTN + win against SB = full win (significant stack gain, guaranteed 3rd or better)

So yes, I'd rather save my chips for a spot where I'm not playing three-handed for my tournament life with a hand this vulnerable. This spot is certainly EV+ with QQ, if we're just talking about average chips won or lost with this hand versus opponent ranges, but I'd much rather hold onto my 120K and use it in spots where I have fold equity or can at least get it heads-up.

In general, I almost never want to call off my entire stack in a multi-way pot late in a tournament. I do see the value in playing to take 1st place, but getting in the money is also a win. If I get free shots to sit back and let others advance me into the money, I will generally take them rather than risking everything to chase 1st place.

 

[ChaosRock]

UTG: Berry
Button: @Marc Hedrick
SB: Jaws

Not that it matters but SB was Legs and not Jaws.

I'm not folding there unless either UTG or BTN are super tight, which is not the case IMO. UTG should be shoving 5BB pretty wide and button with a huge stack should be isoing kinda wide also. Again, there is no way I'm folding the 3rd best initial hand pre-flop unless one of those players are super, super tight.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

You don't have to lose to both players; the bust-out outcome isn't a parlay. You only have to lose against BTN to get stacked. Winning against both players, however, is a parlay.

• lose against BTN + lose against SB = bust out (4th place)
• lose against BTN + win against SB = bust out (3rd place)
• win against BTN + lose against SB = partial win (modest stack gain)
• win against BTN + win against SB = full win (significant stack gain, guaranteed 3rd or better)

So yes, I'd rather save my chips for a spot where I'm not playing three-handed for my tournament life with a hand this vulnerable. This spot is certainly EV+ with QQ, if we're just talking about average chips won or lost with this hand versus opponent ranges, but I'd much rather hold onto my 120K and use it in spots where I have fold equity or can at least get it heads-up.

In general, I almost never want to call off my entire stack in a multi-way pot late in a tournament. I do see the value in playing to take 1st place, but getting in the money is also a win. If I get free shots to sit back and let others advance me into the money, I will generally take them rather than risking everything to chase 1st place.

You get in the money off shorty busts also. And if the spot us +ev to call here with queens (and it is) then by definition it is -ev to fold in this spot.

 

[detroitdad]

Not that it matters but SB was Legs and not Jaws.

I'm not folding there unless either UTG or BTN are super tight, which is not the case IMO. UTG should be shoving 5BB pretty wide and button with a huge stack should be isoing kinda wide also. Again, there is no way I'm folding the 3rd best initial hand pre-flop unless one of those players are super, super tight.

I love it when the pros agree with me

 

[Jimulacrum]

You get in the money off shorty busts also. And if the spot us +ev to call here with queens (and it is) then by definition it is -ev to fold in this spot.

A tournament play can be EV– in terms of chips gained or lost but still be EV+ in terms of average performance in the tournament, i.e., real money gained or lost. It's the same reason you don't throw your whole stack in the middle every time there's an opportunity to get even money as a 20:19 favorite; it's better to pass on the small theoretical gain (with major risk) and just let the rest of the field gamble.

I think this is one such spot, but admittedly, it's close. (In a cash game, it's a call all day.)

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I think 4 handed with an average stack of only 11bbs makes it absolutely not such a spot. Maybe if you had a weaker hand likely to be good that doesn't play as well multi-way, like 88 or AJ suited I'd agree with you, but not QQ.