Top/Top Situation Turn Decision FT Near Bubble (1 Viewer)

Moxie Mike

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Scenario: Private Deepstack Tournament: Inaugural Event at the NEW MoxieMen World Headquarters! $110 entry fee includes Green-chip bounty.

19 Runners (28 total entries). 50k starting stacks; 30 min blinds for 6 levels; rebuys for 6 levels. 20 min levels thereafter. 7 players remain including 2 short stacks (<10BBs) and another shorter stack (~20BBs).

Blinds: 4k/8k no ante. Rebuy period is over. Total chips in play: ~1.4m. Top 5 get paid - payouts are $100/$200/$400/$600/$800 (10%/20%/30%/40% after the bubble save).

Relevant stacks/reads:

UTG: Solid player although not particularly tricky. Generally doesn't get out of line. Stack: ~150k. Been playing with us for about 3 years.
CO (HERO): Table Image: solid LAG. Probably perceived as excessively aggro at times. Stack: ~350k.
Button: Solid player with a history of strong play. Been playing with us for 4+ years. Hendon Mob profile in the mid 5-figures. Stack: ~300k.

Action:

UTG opens to 20k. His opening range is the standard top 20% of holdings. It's unlikely he holds a medium strength hand opening UTG here.
HERO looks down at :ah::th: and elects to peel.
Button calls as well. Blinds fold. POT = 72k.

Flop comes :td::8d::6s:. UTG checks. He would never check an overpair or a big hand like a set, so HERO assumes he holds high cards and whiffed the flop. HERO bets 40k.
Button doesn't seem uncomfortable, and peers at HERO's stack. HERO casually slides a stack of 10 pink chips (25k) into view. Button calls.

UTG says 'I'm just going to get out of the way' and quickly folds. Pot =152k.

The turn is the :4c:.

UTG has ~ 240k left in their stack; HERO covers but not by a lot. HERO'S action?

HERO figures the turn is pretty safe - if he was ahead on the flop he is still ahead. Villain's most likely holding is something like :kd::qd: since they didn't raise preflop or on the flop.

HERO decides to make it expensive to continue drawing and bets 100k.

Villain eyeballs HERO's stack again, thinks for about 10 more seconds and then jams for about 240k total. Pot is now ~500k.

HERO'S action?

HERO pretty much knows he stepped in it and there's pretty much no way he's coming out smelling like a rose on this one. Getting better than 3:1 on a call is tempting - but HERO surmises Button either flopped a straight, turned a straight, or holds A-10. Getting crippled would be a disaster far worse than losing 1/2 his stack in a hand that didn't even go to showdown. So HERO folds, proceeds to tilt off most of the rest of his stack in a subsequent hand and barely eeks out a min-cash.

As the expression goes, not all HEROES wear capes - and not all HEROES are good at poker.

Requisite Pron:

Moxie-Minions hard at work:
new moxie.jpg

Work-hard-play-hard as the cool kids say:
new moxie 2.jpg
 
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Legend5555

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First of all... No antes? Ugh.

I don't really like your flop sizing. While we clearly have UTG beat here, button with his stack stack and profile is something we really do need to be cautious about. I don't think going larger than 1/3rd is necessary.

As played, we are at less than 2 spr. Even though we have TPTK, if we bet again and get jammed on, we are going to puke. But we are certainly strong enough to check and call and try to pick off a FD. This is one of those spots where we are kinda handcuffed if playing for profit is our main concern. We aren't covered though, so we don't have to be terrified of trying to pick off a bluff if it comes to that.
 

upNdown

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Sure seems like you’re ahead.
I think you need to bet here and fairly big. Like 100 or 120.

Is it better to check and let him take control? Only if you want to fold here and fight another day. Which wouldn’t be the worst option, because it sounds like the other four players (not in the hand) are combined for 600k - there must be a short stack there or two. If you’re comfortable with navigating final tables, i would not be completely opposed to giving up here. But I think leading out here is the right play.
 

Ben8257

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Well, maybe this isn't as interesting as I thought. First spoiler posted.
Zero chance he's holding the ole Floppy @Lil Tuna special 57?

Sounds like he changed up his game and is holding an over pair even though you said zero chance he checks that hand... he sized up your stack before the first call. Smells like a trap to me! I'm running away to make the $$$
 

raynmanas

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As played I feel like this has to be a fold. There is just too many hands he could play this way from the button for us to be comfortably ahead, hell even the nuts isn't out of the question, and there's a good chance he has a redraw as well. Or maybe he has a really good read on you. Either way, good bet by UTG.
 

Ben8257

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Zero chance he's holding the ole Floppy @Lil Tuna special 57?

Sounds like he changed up his game and is holding an over pair even though you said zero chance he checks that hand... he sized up your stack before the first call. Smells like a trap to me! I'm running away to make the $$$
No laughing at my comment @Lil Tuna , I am actually curious of your opinion on this hand sir.... Mr. Raise Pre with 57 off!
 

Lil Tuna

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Piloting “Shelby America!” Seeeeee Yaaa!
Zero chance he's holding the ole Floppy @Lil Tuna special 57?

Sounds like he changed up his game and is holding an over pair even though you said zero chance he checks that hand... he sized up your stack before the first call. Smells like a trap to me! I'm running away to make the $$$
7-5 is the monster you never see coming till all your chips are in the middle and your drawing dead. ;) Ask a “Floppy Tuna” sometime! :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
2B24CE3E-26AC-41F5-BADC-D7E3B32CD8A1.jpeg
 

upNdown

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Sorry, I typed this one out last night but never clicked submit, I guess.

It seems like one of your assumptions has to be wrong:
1) he’s not tricky
2) he wouldn’t raise UTG without top 20%
3) he wouldn’t check an overpair

It doesn’t much matter which one. One good rule I try to follow is, don’t get knocked out of a tournament by calling it off with only a pair - it’s a fold for me.
 

Moxie Mike

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Yep. This is what sucks about having a good player that covers you or can cripple you to your left. You both should want to stay out of each other's way. So when they start playing a pot with you, you have to be cautious and play small unless you are nutted.

I haven't been playing much lately... but this was the lesson I needed to relearn. BTW the button in the hand is a woman lol #sexismmuch? #toxicmasculinity #thesarcasmrunsdeeptoday
 
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