Thoughts on this hand? (1 Viewer)

MrCatPants

Full House
Joined
Jun 24, 2017
Messages
3,552
Reaction score
8,824
Location
Houston, Texas
Had a hand earlier today that I'm curious about your opinions on.

1/3 table, everyone who matters with around 300-400 stacks.

button straddle to 6

two limpers to me in late middle position, look down at QQ - raise to 20.
button calls
small blind calls
BB folds, limpers fold

Flop comes 2 2 3 rainbow.
SB checks
Hero bets 40, a little over half the pot.
Button folds
SB jams for about 260 - has me covered by about 20 bucks.

Hero's action?
 
Way too low of a raise preflop, there's already $21 out there after the straddle, limpers, and blinds. Need to make it anywhere from $35 - $40.

We can remove AA, KK, and probably the other combination of QQ from the small blind's holdings. Essentially boils down to if the small blind has A2ss or K2ss. Since you're beating so many pocket pair holdings here, a call is pretty much in order. It would help in the future as well if you can detail the kind of player or style that the main villain has in hand reports.
 
Way too low of a raise preflop, there's already $21 out there after the straddle, limpers, and blinds. Need to make it anywhere from $35 - $40.

We can remove AA, KK, and probably the other combination of QQ from the small blind's holdings. Essentially boils down to if the small blind has A2ss or K2ss. Since you're beating so many pocket pair holdings here, a call is pretty much in order. It would help in the future as well if you can detail the kind of player or style that the main villain has in hand reports.

Player sat down one orbit prior. Only real intel is he raised straight from a $6 straddle to 45 - end up getting his AA cracked.
 
In a straddled pot $20 is about my standard open, I’m making it $30-36 over two limps.

It’s possible he’s spazzing our and shoving 88+ here, normally I’d say a standard player isn’t going to 6x check raise a 2 here, but given his AA open to $45 I’d question that a little. Normally in $1/3 I’m snap calling with QQ here and expecting to see an under pair 80%+ of the time, but this is a villain dependent read situation.
 
Not enough info to narrow Villain down to a range that beats you.

He could have a 2, but even if we assign him a pretty loose preflop range that includes A2s and K2s, that's only 8 total combos, plus 1 way for 22 and 3 ways for 33, for 12 hands that beat you. Add to that any number of pocket pairs between 44 and JJ (6 ways each, for 48 total combos), and you're a pretty significant favorite here. Even if you throw in AA, KK, and the one remaining QQ, that's 13, for a ratio of 48:25 or almost a 2:1 favorite to be ahead.

Of course, some of the smaller pairs might not be in there, but even if you kill 44–66, you're still a favorite. Start eating into higher pairs, and you are still in calling shape but less so (though we could also revisit how reasonable it is for him to have A2s, K2s, AA, and/or KK).

TLDR: Call.
 
These strat threads make me think about lines to avoid the inevitable bad beat when I should be thinking sound poker strategy.

The correct play ends up getting stacked too often.

:mad:
 
Not enough info to narrow Villain down to a range that beats you.

He could have a 2, but even if we assign him a pretty loose preflop range that includes A2s and K2s, that's only 8 total combos, plus 1 way for 22 and 3 ways for 33, for 12 hands that beat you. Add to that any number of pocket pairs between 44 and JJ (6 ways each, for 48 total combos), and you're a pretty significant favorite here. Even if you throw in AA, KK, and the one remaining QQ, that's 13, for a ratio of 48:25 or almost a 2:1 favorite to be ahead.

Of course, some of the smaller pairs might not be in there, but even if you kill 44–66, you're still a favorite. Start eating into higher pairs, and you are still in calling shape but less so (though we could also revisit how reasonable it is for him to have A2s, K2s, AA, and/or KK).

TLDR: Call.
Agree. And with the too-small pre-flop raise, Villain could even be making this play with A4s or 54s.
 
I'm having trouble finding a fold here. With no real scare to Villain if they do hold a 2 in this spot (or pocket 3's), why the over-shove? Generally I read that as someone who has a small to medium pair and is afraid to see an Ace or King hit the turn because you know, you ALWAYS have AK when you're raising preflop.

Your half pot bet doesn't really give Villain any indication that you can call the shove, so I read it as them wanting you to fold. And I try to disappoint my opponents by doing the opposite of what they want. I'm calling in this spot without any additional info on this Villain suggesting otherwise
 
Agree that you have to raise more pre

With no real reads on villain, I don’t see how you can fold here
 
So I went through the same process @Jimulacrum described above - though I didn't consider K2s - and figured villian was the second caller and out of position on the hand he was unlikely to stay on a weak ace - thinking it more likely I was up against a mid pair or someone with two strong broadway cards thinking I was just c-betting and trying to get me off the pot. So I called.

And sorry @WedgeRock but I'm about to share exactly what you described.

Villian flips over 4 2 suited. I don't get bailed out with a Q on the turn or river, and just pick up and go home.

Appreciate the feedback on the pre-flop raise - are thoughts I should have been more aggressive here to get down to a single caller, and even if I just scoop the blinds, at least it's a few straddle limps? What's your open here with QQ given $21 in the pot when it comes to me, and still 4 actors behind plus 2 limpers?
 
One of those spots where it's very helpful to have a line on Villain. If we know he's capable of calling with a lot of hands that include a 2, it broadens his range a lot. It would also be good to know how many hands he makes this move with, but it could take a while to nail that down.

Also helpful to raise more preflop, as others have said. I'd go for something in the range of $30–40. But either way, Villain is making a pretty significant mistake calling with 24s unless he's got the whole table by the balls or something. He just got lucky. Vast majority of the time, he's just bloating the pot for you.

By the way, one error in my analysis above: There are only 2 combos each of A2s and K2s (since 2 of the suits are represented on board). Even more in favor of calling, the given results notwithstanding, of course.
 
So Villain calls a raise OOP with 42 s00ted in a multi-way pot (seems like a pretty big mistake) and then bombs when he flops gold which will generally scare away any additional action (also seems like a mistake, unless he's some genius who just knows you have an overpair and his bet will look like a pair of 7's afraid of a broadway card hitting the turn, but I doubt he's a genius)

Welp, no money in poker, everybodys solid....
 
Player sat down one orbit prior. Only real intel is he raised straight from a $6 straddle to 45 - end up getting his AA cracked.

Does he still seem tilted about the cracked AA? Does he have a cup of black coffee in front of him? Does he wistfully say, "Well, it's time to go home..." before shoving?

Joking aside, this previous hand is the one thing that would make me consider a fold. At these stakes, I often see players who will make huge overbets only with big hands. The mentality is "I'm best now and I'll take the pot. I don't want to get sucked out on."

Without more history or a solid read I'm not folding here, but I expect to see 2x a fair amount of the time. Low stakes casino players love to see flops with baby connectors and Ax offsuit, so there are more 2x combos out there than A2s and K2s.
 
Seems like an annoying sigh fold to me. Most people aren't going to be shoving into after you raised pre-flop with nothing. Especially when the board is rainbow.
 

Create an account or login to comment

You must be a member in order to leave a comment

Create account

Create an account and join our community. It's easy!

Log in

Already have an account? Log in here.

Back
Top Bottom