This fold look ok? (1 Viewer)

Anthony Martino

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Blinds 75/150

Hero is MP with 10,500 stack and makes it 400 with :ad::jc:

CO with 6,900 calls (villain is a massive station and sucks at poker. In a previous event they minraised UTG with 44 and then called a massive shove with it. In tonights event they shoved 8K from UTG with blinds at 75/150 in a previous hand)

Button with 33,000 calls (seems relatively solid compared with the rest of the field which is full of donks. Has raised 2.5x the BB previously, has three-bet QQ, etc)

BB with 42,600 calls (another donkey station, calls raises OOP with 84 s00ted and other garbage, will bet on an 863 board holding 93)

Pot: 1,855
Flop: :ac::qc::2c:

BB checks
Hero bets 900
CO shoves for 6500
Button snap-calls 6500
BB folds
Hero thinks for awhile but ultimately folds.

I've got top pair and 2nd nut draw, but when the relatively solid button snapped there I felt like I was behind and may be drawing extremely thin, and I can't just call and leave myself 3K, I'm playing for my stack in that spot with one pair and 2nd nut draw.

CO reveals :ah::8h: and Button has :as::2s: Running the odds I'm 53% equity in that spot, turn was the :3c: to boot and river was clean so would've chipped up nicely
 
I prefer a fold. You are playing for your tournament life.

If it was just the loose cutoff player I would probably call, but not against 2 players that included a solid button who has you covered. Not worth the risk, your likely not that far ahead equity wise and most likely behind already.
 
No made hand? Top pair decent kicker.

Add the nut flush draw, I'm jammin'.
 
If only we could know the run out before we made our decisions. My win rate would be a lot higher if God granted me such prescience .

Me, I fold top pair / good kicker + 2nd nut redraw to the jam by passive weak spot followed by the call from the competent TAG. On a bad day, Hero is virtually dead. Most days hero has a live nine-out draw less some sort of redraw to a full house. Add in the expected turn action makes this a reasoned fold.

I would change my decision if Hero did not have a skill edge over the field. Hero is getting close to a fair price for making the call. No doubt a turn brick leads to a jam from Button - that bet is no where close to fair now that Hero is getting even money on a 1-4 draw. Still, Hero has a chance to get lucky vs better players.

But we already know Hero is going to win the run out, so Duh! Jam it in and rake in the glory plus the chips -=- DrStrange
 
As played, I'm okay with the fold, for your exact reason. But 4-way, a 50% flop bet is too light if you're trying to figure out where you are at, IMO. I'm not sure 75% to 100% changes the action back to you, but (or and?) you might be pot committed if you pot it post flop and get the same jam-call-fold back to you.

Just as your are discounting the two donkeys, so could button. And he could have seen your 50% open as just a c-bet. @megaton is spot on about lightly hitting the flop on a marginal holding OOP to a solid player. It just puts you to a tough decision.

What hands are you afraid of? Any AQ/A2 (if donkeys are playing Q2, well, they get your chips) and any AK.

Heads up against a flopped 2 pair, you're still close to 50/50. EDIT, as it turns out, you were ahead.

Screenshot_20190526-112735.png

Button is not snapping with a draw, maybe top pair and a draw. At this point, he has to have exactly :ax::kc:, or you're in good shape.

With you still to act behind, I'm surprised he didn't come over the top with two pair. Unless he wanted your money too. Which begs the question, what's your table image? Does button see this as a hand against three donkeys where he wanted all the money in?
 
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Maybe this fold is defendable because I assume AJo is among the weaker of your open raising hands. And since you were the pf raiser, all the sets, two pairs and AK hands are in your range.

I don't think you can ever fold the :kc: , even if you got here with :kc::qx: oddly enough.

And yes, you can complain about the sucker using ridiculous sizing, but it will continue to work for him unless you call with something.
 
And yes, you can complain about the sucker using ridiculous sizing, but it will continue to work for him unless you call with something.

If I held AK with the nut draw I'm ready to stack off there

My problem here wasn't the player who shoved, I was calling them in a heartbeat

It was the more solid player that called the shove.
 
If I held AK with the nut draw I'm ready to stack off there

My problem here wasn't the player who shoved, I was calling them in a heartbeat

It was the more solid player that called the shove.

That's probably the best reason to fold.

And from a distribution standpoint, AJ may be too low to auto-call. But I would be tempted to go exploitive against this sort of foe and make the hero call.
 
I think this discussion is more about the merits of folding a strong hand in the interest of stack preservation and finding a better spot and less about whether hero was actually correct to fold in this spot.

You didn't say anything about blind structure, buy in, whether there are rebuys - all of which are relevant.

Low buy-in freezeout: I call/shove.
Low buy-in with rebuys, I definitely call/shove.
If it's an event with a 5 figure or higher first place, I probably fold here and try to find a better spot.

Bottom line is if I care about winning more than I usually care about winning, I can fold here pretty easily. But if it's a run of the mill donkament that inevitably turns crapshooty after 3-4 hours, than I call in the interest of accumulating chips in advance of the inevitable shove fest it will become.
 
I'm shoving just based on stack sizes. Never calling in this spot, also never folding.
 
Your stack is also 1/3rd to 1/4th the size of other players at your table. With top-pair decent kicker and the flush draw, it seems pretty clear to me. I swing for the fences. Also why I think your lead-out bet is too small.
 
Your stack is also 1/3rd to 1/4th the size of other players at your table. With top-pair decent kicker and the flush draw, it seems pretty clear to me. I swing for the fences. Also why I think your lead-out bet is too small.

The avg stack at that stage of the game I believe was 15K, you're only seeing the stack sizes of players in the hand. I don't need to swing for the fences in a slow and deep-structured event that favors skill. The big-stacked donkeys will make plenty of mistakes and put their money in bad.

In this hand I'm willing to call off against the shorter stack who plays bed when they overshove. But when the decent player snap-calls, I think my calling in that spot is a long-term mistake.
 
I agree -- I never call. But I think shoving > folding >> calling.

Calling is essentially the same as shoving, as I'm essentially committing myself to continuing with the hand at that juncture.

I love the structure in these events. Early on I had a set over set situation in one of them and managed to not go broke, because the structure is so good.
 
My two cents:

It’s a very easy fold for me. Honestly, I don’t even bet that flop. Let someone else fire into it and then reassess when it gets back around to me. I can call a bet if no one raises and see what happens on the turn. But I’m insta-folding if there’s a bet and a raise before it comes back around to me. I’m likely up against a made flush, a better Ace, two pair, a set or a K high flush draw. I’m behind everything that can reasonably raise except a bluff. Easy lay down.

There will be far, far better spots to take these players’ money. I’d like to still have chips when those moments arrive.
 
Have you run this through PioSolver? I'd be curious to see what it thinks based on the solid button's range.....
 
Everything about this post reeks of a rebuy tournament (or play money). Is that the case? If so, easy call. If not, the best players I know are folding this early in the tournament and taking the gamble in the later stages with it.
 
Everything about this post reeks of a rebuy tournament (or play money). Is that the case? If so, easy call. If not, the best players I know are folding this early in the tournament and taking the gamble in the later stages with it.

No rebuys. This is a private group I belong to that hosts weekly $20 and $30 freezeouts with good structures and a weak field of 25-35 players on average
 

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