The ups and downs of 25NL Zone: would you play these hands differently? (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

Having a pretty card-dead session. I'm 209 hands in so just about 45m. I'm down about 13BB (my stack is just fluctuating +/- 15BB, up and down) so treading water and waiting for a score.

Hero is in BB with QQ. UTG folds, HJ RFI to 3BB and it folds to hero who 3! to 12.4BB (4x). V calls.

Flop is low and likely misses V's calling range (except for 99). Hero cbets about 1/3 and V calls. I think 99 would raise here with the FD on flop.
I think if V has AA/KK he probably calls as I have 99 in range as well.

Turn is low and makes the board more connected. I still think I'm ahead of V's range but IP he could have called pre with AA, KK so I bet 1/3 pot again. V calls.

River is the dreaded A and I X. V X behind and shows AQs. Ugh that was a sizeable pot.
Would you have played any differently? Bet larger on turn?
Lost about 36BB here putting me down 49BB net

EDIT: Snowie actually plays a mixed strategy on turn, X 83% and betting 1/3 - 1/2 pot (same EV for both sizes) 17%.
I'm not really understanding the X. It has the below range for V on the turn, 52% likelihood that V has AKs or 88. I think both of thsoe worse hands are calling a bet. In fact we're only behind KK which is only 11% of V's projected range. Why X 83% here?

 

[boltonguy]

A few minutes later I am rewarded with this hand. I had topped back up to 100BB and had won a small pot.

Folds to Hero in HJ with AJo. Hero RFI 2.5BB. Folds to SB who flats and BB folds. Going to a flop ...

Hero flops 2 pair. The board is connected so Hero bets 1/2 pot. SB calls. He's got something, but I think he would have raised AA or JJ pre and would have raised a set of 99s here given how connected the board is. So maybe Ax, Jx or a draw.

Turn is a brick. V X to hero who sizes up to 2/3 pot. I'm confident I'm ahead and want to get more money in the pot from V's worse one-pair hands.
V X/R to 4x or 37BB ...

I dont see V getting here with 55. Dont see AA/JJ/99 per the above.
Hero thinks that he must be ahead here so lets get the money in ahead and hold. Hero jams. V calls (he only has 11BB behind here).

Hero fades the Q (LOL) and scoops. This 54BB pot puts me back up just under 6BB after the above hand with QQ

 

[ktran]

I'd probably bet at 1/2 to 3/4 pot in the flop with queens. More on the 3/4 side. 1/3 seems like good value especially for AK JJ. If he has KK or AA he probably raised on the flop or turn. I'd probably size up on the turn to given that he'll raise with KK or AA in this spot

 

[Samuel]

If I'm looking at that correctly(?), V has two overcards and nut flush draw, he/she might have decided at minimum to call all the way and see what happens...