The Hard Truth Of Poker — And Life: You’re Never ‘Due’ For Good Cards

WedgeRock

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Meh. Nothing shocking... Surprised Erik Seidel didn't teach her not to play pocket jacks aggressively OOP on an AQx flop.
 

MathijsVS

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Meh. Nothing shocking... Surprised Erik Seidel didn't teach her not to play pocket jacks aggressively OOP on an AQx flop.

The whole point is that it's nothing shocking that it happened :p

I for one recognize that feeling of being "superior", since you know all the pitfalls you think it won't happen to you... and then it does!
 

BukNaked36

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I'm an engineer. I thought I had a good grasp of math, probability and logic and then I started playing poker.

The hot and cold (mainly cold) streaks I have seen just boggle my mind.

6 tabling online watching 300 - 400 hands an hour go by, and being card dead for multiple sessions.

Playing live and feeling like the poker room is an ATM for 10 session in a row, then not being able to win a hand for months.

Why do I play this game again?
 

MathijsVS

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I'm an engineer. I thought I had a good grasp of math, probability and logic and then I started playing poker.

The hot and cold (mainly cold) streaks I have seen just boggle my mind.

6 tabling online watching 300 - 400 hands an hour go by, and being card dead for multiple sessions.

Playing live and feeling like the poker room is an ATM for 10 session in a row, then not being able to win a hand for months.

You do have a good grasp of math, probability and logic, but stuff like that really highlights the size of the necessary data sets before you can start seeing an upward/downward trend. When I first started playing, I had a very warped view of what was "long term".

Why do I play this game again?

Either because you're a masochist or because you thought crack was too cheap of a hobby, like the rest of us?
 

WedgeRock

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I'm an engineer. I thought I had a good grasp of math, probability and logic and then I started playing poker.

The hot and cold (mainly cold) streaks I have seen just boggle my mind.

6 tabling online watching 300 - 400 hands an hour go by, and being card dead for multiple sessions.

Playing live and feeling like the poker room is an ATM for 10 session in a row, then not being able to win a hand for months.

Why do I play this game again?

Its the difference between being process-oriented (making good decisions) and being results-oriented (winning/losing).

You're doing it right.
 

bsdunbar1

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Its the difference between being process-oriented (making good decisions) and being results-oriented (winning/losing).

You're doing it right.

Every time i see your new avatar I think of an awesome set that could be made around the theme.

7629.jpg
 

upNdown

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I was surprised to see the present date on that because I felt sure I’d read that before.
maybe the “newbie gets tips from pro before first tournament” is just a recycled theme.
 

Poker Zombie

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I look forward to reading the rest of the book.
  • Although I understand the principles of math, I have always approached poker from the psychological angle. Picking up on tilt then exploiting it for profit is a key aspect of casino poker. I view ranges to be a psychological limitation as well. Yes, math is important, but the psych aspect is rarely discussed. I'd like to see her take on the topic.
  • I too have experienced the rush of "I'm awesome" after a long positive streak, knowing full well variance was the wind in my sails. This just hits very close to home, even though Erik Seidel hasn't taught me diddly.
  • Reading the bit about computer gaming was eye opening. It makes me wonder if a part of the "entitled" mindset of some (not all) of the younger generation is due to their interactions with the forced balance of variance in computer games. Poker players and board gamers have frequently found that occasional luck vortex that thwarted every good strategy. We are used to losing even when we did everything right.
 

Mojo1312

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My favorite example of variance is from a poker session in October of 2013. Catching cards playing NLHE nine handed. Hit a boat and lose to a straight flush. Make a boat an hour later. This time I am hoping to get paid. Lose to quad fours. lol! I am such a donkey.

One of the craziest run-outs I have ever scene was at a $2/$5 table at Hollywood mid 2012 iirc. Player in late position raises to $55 and gets two callers. Check, check, bet. Fold, all-in.

LP tanks for a solid three minutes. He knows he is beat. He goes over all the possibilities. Top two, bottom two, a set, a straight. He slowly talks himself out of the first three and settles on the flopped straight. Still calls, because hey, who folds pocket aces?

Dealer asks the players to show. Bingo! Mister Negraneau ran his Aces into a flopped straight! $1,750 pot.

Dealer burns and turns an Ace for the sweat, but no one really believes this hand is going to go LP's way. Dealer burns and reveals the river card. The case Ace appears for the win!

W. T. F.?
 

WedgeRock

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Once the first ace hits on the turn, LP just needs to pair the board for the win.

Rivered boat > Flopped straight
 
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MathijsVS

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My favorite example of variance is from a poker session in October of 2013. Catching cards playing NLHE nine handed. Hit a boat and lose to a straight flush. Make a boat an hour later. This time I am hoping to get paid. Lose to quad fours. lol! I am such a donkey.

One of the craziest run-outs I have ever scene was at a $2/$5 table at Hollywood mid 2012 iirc. Player in late position raises to $55 and gets two callers. Check, check, bet. Fold, all-in.

LP tanks for a solid three minutes. He knows he is beat. He goes over all the possibilities. Top two, bottom two, a set, a straight. He slowly talks himself out of the first three and settles on the flopped straight. Still calls, because hey, who folds pocket aces?

Dealer asks the players to show. Bingo! Mister Negraneau ran his Aces into a flopped straight! $1,750 pot.

Dealer burns and turns an Ace for the sweat, but no one really believes this hand is going to go LP's way. Dealer burns and reveals the river card. The case Ace appears for the win!

W. T. F.?

As Wedge said: you're doing it right. Getting screwed over by the river against all odds will become more common as you get better. Even if you're on the other side of the debate and you win against all odds, it often presents an equally big danger: are you overplaying hands? Are you gambling in stead of following your strategy? Why were the odds against you in the first place?
 

Mojo1312

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As Wedge said: you're doing it right. Getting screwed over by the river against all odds will become more common as you get better. Even if you're on the other side of the debate and you win against all odds, it often presents an equally big danger: are you overplaying hands? Are you gambling in stead of following your strategy? Why were the odds against you in the first place?

Reading BukNaked's post bought back memories of crazy variance. I can't count the number of hands I have played, but I am still waiting to see someone loose twice in in a single session of Hold-em to a straight flush and four of a kind.

Once the first ace hits on the turn, LP just needs to pair the board for the win.

Rivered boat > Flopped straight

I stove-piped the hand when I got home and was surprised at the equity LP had. He called six hundred and change, so he definitely was not getting the right price to call. It is the way in which he won. Not Ace, pair on the board or vice versa, but that he caught runner Aces.

Seeing crazy hands play out like that is one of the reasons I enjoy playing the game.
 

Poker Zombie

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Mrs Zombie was knocked out of a WSOP event with KK vs AA - in back-to-back hands.

Neither of us was pissed. It was just how it wrapped up.
 

trigs

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Like I always say, you can't get sucked out on unless you are putting your money in good.
 
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