tempting PLO spot

upNdown

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Later stages of a tournament - 4 handed. Stack sizes don't much matter. Competitors don't much matter, except that they've all been pretty tight.

I'm gonna spare you the suspense. I was in the blinds with 8856 single suited. It limped around so I was fine with seeing a flop.
Flop was 856 rainbow. I checked, somebody potted it.
I looked at the board and looked at my hand and decided that I had to fold.
I'm almost certain he had a straight. What are the odds that my hand was improving?
What do you think?
 

Moxie Mike

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Was this from Wed night's Moxie game?

I disagree that stacks sizes don't matter. Everything matters including payouts at this stage.

Whether to proceed with top set on a straighty board depends on whether you think you can find a better spot later in the game. If the answer is no, then you might as well try to get it in now in an effort to double up and take your chances on improving to a FH. If you think you'll find a better spot down the road, muck.

As to your equity, if you're able to get it all in on the flop, you have 5 outs on the flop and will likely pick up 3 more outs on the turn. Assuming all our outs are live, that's about a 30% chance to improve to a FH or quads on the next two streets.
 

upNdown

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Was this from Wed night's Moxie game?

I disagree that stacks sizes don't matter. Everything matters including payouts at this stage.

Whether to proceed with top set on a straighty board depends on whether you think you can find a better spot later in the game. If the answer is no, then you might as well try to get it in now in an effort to double up and take your chances on improving to a FH. If you think you'll find a better spot down the road, muck.

As to your equity, if you're able to get it all in on the flop, you have 5 outs on the flop and will likely pick up 3 more outs on the turn. Assuming all our outs are live, that's about a 30% chance to improve to a FH or quads on the next two streets.
No, this was in the PCF late game tonight. I had a healthy lead at that point - probably at least 50bb - the other 3 were probably all between 20 and 30 bb. Two got paid and it was a bounty
 

FDLmold

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If you are very sure that pot means straight, a fold is good here. There are better spots, and the pot is small.
 

Kain8

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The odds of the guy potting without a straight here are:

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zero.
 

Cackalacka Slim

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@upNdown you said flop was rainbow, but was one on them your single suit? Just curious if a runner runner flush was a possibility. Don't think it would change your fold, but would be interesting if fourth street were to add 7 more outs for a flush.
 
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