Super-short-stack bubble strategy (1 Viewer)

[MrBo]

Playing the MD Live $75 "bankroll builder" 10k guaranteed tourney yesterday, 408 entries, paying top 45, $105 for a min-cash with a nice 4-figure payday for the top few spots. The "players remaining" number on the tournament clock has been dropping in chunks for the past hour or two, and recently went from 57 to 53 to 50, then quickly back up to 52. We are definitely near the bubble but not sure exactly how close.

Hero has been at new table for about 2 orbits, shoved <10BB's once and picked up blinds, then 3-bet shoved button with AJo over cutoff's ATo open and got the double up. Other than that has mostly folded and currently sits with about 65k in chips with blinds having just gone up to 4k/8k/1k ante. Average is about 120k but there are about 4-5 players of the 9 at this table in the 30-80k range, with maybe one or two players with a little more than average. Play has been a mix of raise-and-take-its and short-stack all-in pre flips. The following is a string of hands that I'm interested in feedback on, though the results are going to be revealed as well. Particularly curious about hands #2-5 and other's would have just tried to fold their way into a min-cash...

All hands are 4k/8k/1k ante 9-handed.

Hand #1
(65k in chips, 52 players remaining) Hero is UTG with and shoves all-in. Gets called by shorter stack in MP with and loses on X runout.

Hand #2
(24k in chips, 50 players remaining) Hero is in BB with . After BB and ante he has 15k behind. One of the big stack limps UTG+2. Button limps behind. SB completes. Hero checks option. Check-folds to button bet on flop.

Hand #3
(15k in chips, 49 players remaining) Hero is in SB with , so 10k behind after posting. MP short-stack shoves all-in for 50k-ish. Folds around, Hero folds, BB folds.

Hand #4
(10k in chips, 49 players remaining) Hero is on button with . MP big stack player opens for 20k. Folds to Hero, Hero folds, folds around.

Hand #5
(9k in chips, 49 players remaining) Hero is in cutoff with . Hijack player shoves all-in for about 50k. Hero decides to finally go with it and dumps his remaining 1BB in. SB big stack calls. Hijack has , SB has . 8's hold up and Hero's out in 49th.


Some of my own quick thoughts:
#1 - Pretty sure this is an easy shove. Our stack is big enough to threaten a decent chunk of even the larger stacks at the table, and we can probably get folds from low-medium pairs and we flip against some that may call. If we run into AQ/AK or better so be it. Got lucky to get called here by a hand we dominate, and then unlucky on the 4-outer turn. Would've been nice to win this one and get close to an average stack (sigh).

#2 - Most likely would have jammed this if I had closer to 5 or more BB's, but foresaw a jam here with only 15k behind building a 3 or 4-way pot with little equity for Hero. Opted to take a free flop and try to hit any piece. May have been a slight chance I had the best hand pre-flop and should've just shove-and-prayed?

#3 - Hating life at this point. Meh?

#4 - Thought about dumping it in with this one. The raise in front gives us protection against a multi-way pot and we get added value from the blinds with a hand that has decent enough equity against hands like big aces or lower pairs.

#5 - Meh? Considered after this if I could have just folded my way into a min-cash. My stack is so short even a quintuple-up leaves me in the red zone.

 

[trever]

Depends on what you are trying to do.
If you are looking to just squeak into the money, then fold every one of these and hope 7 guys bust out before you fade away.

If you're hoping to make some kind of run,
1. shove
2. shove pre
3. shove
4. shove
5. fold

 

[MrBo]

Depends on what you are trying to do.
If you are looking to just squeak into the money, then fold every one of these and hope 7 guys bust out before you fade away.

If you're hoping to make some kind of run,
1. shove
2. shove pre
3. shove
4. shove
5. fold

Well at hand #1 I'm still looking for good spots to steal and/or double up to keep the dream alive. Being near the bubble would not have affected my decisions to make a +EV move. After getting knocked down to 3 BB's and getting hit by the blinds my chances of a deep run are not looking so great, so I'm thinking just sneaking into the money would be an okay result. My thinking in hindsight was that getting a 4-5x-up (assuming heads-up + blinds and antes) would still leave me as a longshot for a deep run, so perhaps the potential reward was not worth the risk of bubbling. The A2o hand was probably my best shot for getting the chips in an okay spot and getting back to a decent stack.

Curious as to why you think #4 is a shove but #5 is a fold?

 

[trever]

Well at hand #1 I'm still looking for good spots to steal and/or double up to keep the dream alive. Being near the bubble would not have affected my decisions to make a +EV move. After getting knocked down to 3 BB's and getting hit by the blinds my chances of a deep run are not looking so great, so I'm thinking just sneaking into the money would be an okay result. My thinking in hindsight was that getting a 4-5x-up (assuming heads-up + blinds and antes) would still leave me as a longshot for a deep run, so perhaps the potential reward was not worth the risk of bubbling. The A2o hand was probably my best shot for getting the chips in an okay spot and getting back to a decent stack.

Curious as to why you think #4 is a shove but #5 is a fold?

Ok you talked me into it. shove Q9 too.

 

[kirchhausen]

I'd keep shoving with in any of those spots until you double up or bust out. If I Shove and double with the A2 hand then i lay down the 10-2 hand.

 

[stocky]

Hand 2 is a must all in IMO.

Hand 3 borderline but still all in.

If I'm still there at hand 4 I'm just folding till I'm all in blind coz fuck it. Hand 2 was your best hope IMO

 

[CHP TD]

Agreed about hand 3 this is a mistake i made time and time again. Lookingh at my cards and not looking at the situation. what you missed in hating your life is that at this point cards are not important sinnce you are dead. so what is the best situation when your dead? Heads up. Even 72 pre flop against aces will win 1 in ten times.

this is not my pearl of wisdom i learnt it from Nengruno (im sure that is not correct spelling)

when your in the dead zone, card dead and looking for a spot you are looking for someone narrow the feild then call and hope. You cant afford to lose another 10000 in chips. so the situation is more important than the cards.

 

[MrBo]

Thanks for the feedback, all. I agree that I should've just jammed the A2 hand and hoped for the best. If it would've been a raised pot I definitely would have dumped my stub in there. Something about the 3 callers and no fold equity made me puss out.

I think the closer to the actual bubble though the more most of these hands become a fold, except #1 and maybe #2. If we were 1 or 2 spots from the money and I had enough chips to just ante down the next 6-7 hands I don't see much wrong with trying to just fold into a min-cash. The potential reward of going from around 1BB to about 4BB just does not seem to be worth the risk of bubbling.

 

[DrStrange]

Super short stacked? In general shove > fold > call. The cards are secondary. Hero is being eaten alive quickly. Jam those chips in - really you could almost play blind.

In the example from the OP - Hero is paying 9K in antes and 12K in blinds every orbit. Hero is better off taking a 33/66 haircut with garbage card than waiting an orbit to get a good hand with half as many chips.

The time for patience is long past. At this point is it time to PANIC and pray the poker gods.

DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Honestly I think your best bet among these hands was to go with the T9 hand. Big stack opened, which means you are more likely than not to be against just him. With 21k in dead money and his 10k you are getting 3-1 odds, which seem pretty good for a connected hand like T9. The only hands you aren't getting the right price to call are pocket tens and above, and being the big stack, I expect his opening range to be wider than most. The only way I would keep folding is if we were 1 or 2 away from the money bubble, but since you were 4 away, I think this is the spot you should have gone with.

You were getting 4-1 odds with the T2 hand, but this one you are more likely to be facing an overpair. I suppose this wouldn't be horrible either.

 

[MrBo]

Honestly I think your best bet among these hands was to go with the T9 hand. Big stack opened, which means you are more likely than not to be against just him. With 21k in dead money and his 10k you are getting 3-1 odds, which seem pretty good for a connected hand like T9. The only hands you aren't getting the right price to call are pocket tens and above, and being the big stack, I expect his opening range to be wider than most. The only way I would keep folding is if we were 1 or 2 away from the money bubble, but since you were 4 away, I think this is the spot you should have gone with.

You were getting 4-1 odds with the T2 hand, but this one you are more likely to be facing an overpair. I suppose this wouldn't be horrible either.

Including the A2 hand? Having a hard time imagining the jam-master would have check-folded that.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

You got to see the flop for free, didn't like it, and check folded. I see nothing wrong with that at all. If you jam in that spot, you are likely getting called by at least two of the three other people, and I doubt your A2 plays well in a multiway pot.

 

[Trihonda]

3 big blinds with an ACE? Shove. You've got a wheel draw....

 

[MrBo]

You got to see the flop for free, didn't like it, and check folded. I see nothing wrong with that at all. If you jam in that spot, you are likely getting called by at least two of the three other people, and I doubt your A2 plays well in a multiway pot.

Wait, what is happening? Is Chippy agreeing with the nitty way I played a hand??? I'm so confused now

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I would never let myself get down to 2 big blinds lol

 

[Poker Zombie]

Hand #1
(65k in chips, 52 players remaining) Hero is UTG with and shoves all-in. Gets called by shorter stack in MP with and loses on X runout.

Mistake. Yes, it's a good hand, but in a lousy position. Close to the bubble players will tighten up, and the only calls you could expect are coin flips. You fold this here, ad you are extremely likely to make $30 on your $75 investment - a 40% value for folding. I am assuming that you are on the bottom half of the field's skill level (unless you've had some particular bad beats or strokes of luck) because of your relative stack size. Therefore a double here will most likely only get you into the mid 30's in position, which (without seeing the pay table) is barely over that 40% ROI. I'll just call it a $120 payout unless corrected. So you are plausibly looking at a 60% ROI if you hit the flip, 40% ROI if you fold, and 0% if you miss.

After that, it's personal preference. Do you limp and go home, or throw the hail mary? 2 point conversion for the win or a 1 point kick and take it into overtime? I agree with both options and have done both with probably equal success.

 

[MrBo]

Mistake. Yes, it's a good hand, but in a lousy position.

You know I was hoping someone might comment on this. I don't disagree with you but think it's pretty darn close to the borderline. In the same UTG spot I probably would have folded AT and worse, KQ, and small pairs, and I most likely wouldn't have called a shove for my tournament life with AJs. I did have the advantage of being about even in stack size with about 6 of the 8 other players at the table, putting the tough decision on them and making my hand appear a little stronger coming from UTG. I probably could have folded into the money from here but at this point it appeared we were still about 7 players from the bubble.

I am assuming that you are on the bottom half of the field's skill level

Uhh small sample size maybe? Also I certainly hope not after seeing the interesting plays made by much of the field (the KJ guy calling my shove for his tournament life doesn't even register on this scale).

Do you limp and go home, or throw the hail mary? 2 point conversion for the win or a 1 point kick and take it into overtime? I agree with both options and have done both with probably equal success.

Ya lost me here Confusion = I shove!

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I am assuming that you are on the bottom half of the field's skill level

Thats not a very nice thing to say, even if it is true.

 

[MrBo]

Thats not a very nice thing to say, even if it is true.

Next game I'll be sure to wear my 2014 EWSOP bracelet and bring along some printouts of the end-of-year Speak EC standings, damnit! :

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I said if, not though lol

 

[Poker Zombie]

I didn't mean the bottom half of the field as a bad thing, but on re-reading what I wrote I see the mistake I made...

I meant you were probably in the bottom half of the remaining field, or in the top 5%-15% of the 408 entries. Yes, I accept that there may have been coolers beats etc that landed you dancing with the bubble, but today wasn't going to be your day to chop the top prizes without a fair run of luck - and I don't base probability on runs of improbable luck.

Sorry if I sounded mean.

 

[kirchhausen]

Mistake. Yes, it's a good hand, but in a lousy position. Close to the bubble players will tighten up, and the only calls you could expect are coin flips.

While there are merits to folding in this so close to the bubble, your thinking is flawed.

Op can certainly expect some worse might call (one even did in this particular hand). He can also fold out some better hands. If I'm in late position with 22-66 and a player who has been playing very few hands open shoves utg I'm likely folding.

I say if you want to min cash folding here is fine, but if you want to go for the win shove>fold.

 

[Poker Zombie]

I say if you want to min cash folding here is fine, but if you want to go for the win shove>fold.

I agree you cannot win without the shove, and knowledge of the table is paramount to knowing if you will get a worse call and therefore more value. I just find that the move from squeaking into the money to winning in a large-ish (400+ player) tournament just does not happen with any statistical significance. The top 3 players probably are sitting many, many more big blinds than you.

If this were a home game, the big stacks wouldn't have such a giant lead, and your opportunities to come back and win it all are much much greater, and in those cases the shove from Hand #1 is the same call I would have made. Also, most home games don't run such a top-heave payout structure, (meaning the early payouts are virtually all identical) which also counts into my equation.

 

[MrBo]

Sorry if I sounded mean.

Lol it's fine. I think in this case the structure and stack sizes are worth more consideration than any aspect of skill, and I should have given more info. Blinds are only 20 mins and slightly more aggressive than larger buy-in events (i.e. level 3 is 100/200/25 rather than 75/150 and there are a few other bigger jumps, though we did start with 15k). Average stack was around 120k at this point, so about 15BB's. There were no massive stacks at my table and quite a few in the red zone. It was a weird dynamic between players feeling the pressure to double up or go home and the tightness of a bubble nearing, but safe to say that not much advanced post-flop poker was going to be played. I took the more aggressive approach with the AJ hand, thinking of the deeper run, and then poker happened.

I guess the main question I had after this experience was how close to the bubble and how super-short stacked do you have to be before you stop looking to get it in and just try to eek out the min-cash? But the AJ hand is what set all of this up and could be argued either way, so I decided to include it. I'm glad PZ brought it more into the spotlight.

 

[Trihonda]

If my stack is 65k, and BB is 8k w/ a 1k ante (lets just call it 9k), that gives me 7.2 BB. If I have 7 BB and look down at suited AJ and don't shove, I think I would expect to get flamed in a strat thread.