Mr Winberg
Full House
Imagine you are Phil Ivey’s backer. You have two WSOP scenarios to choose from:
A) Ivey is at the WSOP final table. All 9 players have about the same number of chips.
B) It’s again the WSOP, and there are two tables of 9 left. All 18 have about the same number of chips.
If your deal with Ivey is that you get 50% of the money if he comes in first, which option do you choose, (A) or (B)?
Of course A, but that has nothing to do with your claim that it is more than twice as difficult to win with 18 left than 9 left.
I mean, depending on the style and skills of a particular player, the claim might hold true for some players, but I read your claim as if is was true "in general", i.e. for a random player, which it of course is not. A random player has exactly 1/9 chance of winning a nine handed table, and exactly half that chance (1/18) of winning two nine handed tables.
If I misunderstood you, then I apologize. Either way, I'll stop now since I don't want to detail further. Sorry @timinater!