Suited connectors (1 Viewer)

[Gunnar]

So we are late pos.
100/200 game

We have around 50k stack

If have a under the gun raise to 1500
UTG is a drunk polish guy LAG with 80k stack

One call on the way from a 22k stack young nit player.

We flat with

Pot 4800

Flop

The polish guy bets 9000
Young guy folds
Action on us

 

[DoubleEagle]

Big over bet like that is often a sign of weakness. I re-raise.

 

[Jambine]

Sorry, you had me with suited J-10, my very favorite starting hand in Hold-Em.

........oh yeah, raise here and take all his money on the turn

 

[kmccormick100]

So we are late pos.
100/200 game

We have around 50k stack

If have a under the gun raise to 1500
UTG is a drunk polish guy LAG with 80k stack

One call on the way from a 22k stack young nit player.

We flat with

Pot 4800

Flop

The polish guy bets 9000
Young guy folds
Action on us

Make it 20k and ship in the 30k on the turn

 

[200 Motels]

I like a 3bet pre in position here. It's a great hand to squeeze two weak players in position.

Given the action, flatting would be fine if you were deeper, but seeing how you don't have much left once you call on the turn he's prolly shoving turn so you're going to want to deny equity from his shitty hands and shove. Lame part is he's rarely calling with worse. So calling keeps some of his shitty hands in which is good because they aren't getting there very often but that over bet and those stack sizes make it hard to play small ball. Jam'er in there. He has a straight I assume.

 

[200 Motels]

Make it 20k and ship in the 30k on the turn

This is good but what happens if villain 3bets shoves flop? Do you fold?

 

[kmccormick100]

This is good but what happens if villain 3bets shoves flop? Do you fold?

No way, those raise sizes I solidly put him on an overpair. If he overbets the flop with a set <1% of the time, gg.

 

[DrStrange]

I think the raise 20K planning to jam 30K on any turn is a fine plan, let's do it.

Hero is never ever folding to a drunk LAGtard holding top two pair. Villain has plenty of "real" over pair hands and draws plus drunken silly hands in his range for hero to play for stacks here.

Sure, Hero might get stacked. But we play in games hoping for this exact situation - likely these circumstances account for most of our win rates.

Embrace variance -=- DrStrange

 

[Gunnar]

So I raise it to 20k
He thinks a little bit , takes a sip of beer and calls.

Turn is

He counts out his chips and goes all-in

So we are in the tank what do we do

 

[Trihonda]

So I raise it to 20k
He thinks a little bit , takes a sip of beer and calls.

Turn is

He counts out his chips and goes all-in

So we are in the tank what do we do

I’m prolly calling and praying for two things...

1 that he doesn’t have

2 that we bink a J on the river...

 

[Frogzilla]

Oh wow that’s a turn. That makes this really tough.

How skilled is opponent? If he is skilled, I think there are a lot of bluffs in his range here. He easily could have air with this line. Call.

If he’s not skilled, I might fold in this spot. Depending on any reads I have on opponent and what he has jammed with so far that night

 

[PlaidDragon]

So we are late pos.
100/200 game

We have around 50k stack

If have a under the gun raise to 1500
UTG is a drunk polish guy LAG with 80k stack

One call on the way from a 22k stack young nit player.

We flat with

Pot 4800

Flop

The polish guy bets 9000
Young guy folds
Action on us

I would raise an eyebrow at an early position bet like that. If I was polish guy (PG) and had 8,9 or 7,7, I'd accept the risk of being outdrawn and slow play that round. The risk is higher but the reward is potentially greater.

Thus, I don't put PG on a straight or set. He's likely on a draw and in a bad position and wants everyone out. Maybe an A,10 or A, J?


What would I do with ? I'd raise to 25k and see if he really means it. It's not a bad move considering you have chances to boat and runner-runner-flush on the outside.


If he comes over the top and re-raises that might suggest our logic was flawed.

So I raise it to 20k
He thinks a little bit , takes a sip of beer and calls.

Turn is

He counts out his chips and goes all-in

So we are in the tank what do we do

Ugh. Really bad turn for the situation.

PG's call of your bet and resultant push after the turn suggests he's hit his draw.

The questions I have are:

- What do you know of his play from prior rounds?
- What (if anything) was his initial reaction to seeing the turn card?

If he's hit his straight or flush you only have 4 outs provided he doesn't have . But with those cards would he have bet 9000 post-flop with 17 outs to improve his hand; two of them being straight flushes? In general, I'd guess not.

So... what to do.... With blinds at 100/200, your remaining 30k is a lot to risk. You're not crippled by folding but doing so would give PG a decisive chip advantage. To make a decision you'd again have to judge the whole of his play; specifically, is his continuation bet a sign of desperation or a sign that you've been outdrawn.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Several lines of thought on this one so just catching up let me start back post flop.

1. Calling would have your stack down to just under 40K. What are you going to do if he bets the turn? If you are willing to fold if the turn is a blank or a worse card for you then calling post flop isn't bad.
2. Raising post flop is hard for me here. You are down to 40K. If you raise to 20K (thats half your stack) you are down to 10BB. Are you willing to fold post turn if the turn is a blank and he bets? You are pretty committed at this point so I can't see a fold coming.
3. So I a shoving post flop. His starting hands are over pair so his bet is legit. Two diamonds so his bet is a semi bluff. Straight well then your are screwed but how likely was he to have raised preflop with 8 9? Under pair and he is firing a total bluff continuing from his preflop raise. Or a set.

If he has a set you are going to lose your chips anyway.
If he has a straight you are going to lose your chips anyway.
If he has an over pair or a straight or flush draw you are a favorite.
If he has an under pair you are a big favorite.

So I am shoving although depending on the previous play I might call. But no way am I raising over his 9K. I just don't see any value to that.

 

[Tcollie51]

He's probably got an overpair, maybe a big combo draw? I don't mind a raise or reevaluating by just flatting and taking a turn, you block 2/3 hands the have you beat. So I am not gonna fold. Most likely kings or queens/ flush or combo draws trying to take down the pot right there or just trying to get vakuv (badly of course) if they have a value hand which again you block/chop with.

 

[TheRepo]

Interesting hand. Perhaps just a bit of math to check things out. Some assumptions:

1. A drunk LAG = poor LAG = wider ranges, less likely to fold. This changes for a thinking LAG who's had a few but can still calculate;
2. Overbet = protectionist tell = range perhaps weighted more to overpairs/draws (notably also consistent from a frequency GTO perspective);

PREFLOP
Assign Villain O-range UTG = 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AJo+,KQo (12.2%). Perhaps a bit tight, but starting pessimistic and then open up from there. Normally this would be a squeeze for me but the open size is pretty large, the LAG won't likely fold, and 2/3 of us are super-deep, changing the dynamic a bit by increasing implied odds of a monster hit (400BB stack in a drunk LAG)

FLOP
Villain bet 9000. Conservatively, I'd toss out the under and middle pairs with an overbet like that, but I'll leave 77+ as 88 and 99 have good drawing equity. Keep the rest for now (even AT...).
Against this range, Hero's equity is 73%...as we all knew - way ahead. We'll keep this as his C-Range after the Hero raise, due mainly to the drunkenness (more likely to keep a draw, etc.)

TURN
Things get interesting with the A. Villain's lead all-in is a bit strange. A full 26% of his combos are flushes, so that's likely but then why shove the turn as more value would be obtained by waiting for the river and betting for value? Same for the straight, however drunk guy might want to protect against another diamond peeling off.

Unfortunately our equity has fallen to about 47% here. We have to call 28,500 to win roughly 73,300 so we need min 39% equity. Since we have 47%, this is reasonable.

CONCLUSION
From a pessimistic range analysis, we have a solid +EV situation for the call. Throw in the fact that the turn shove looks more like overpair protection than a value bet, and maybe bump up the EV even more. Still, tough to realize that we will get stacked ~40-50% of the time, depending on how sub-optimal Villain is playing, but if we could somehow manufacture these scenarios enough, we'd be rich.

Someone please jump in if I messed this up in any way - I just started here and am not yet a super-pro at this type of analysis.

Repo

 

[TheRepo]

A quick add-on: We actually only need 28% equity - I believe I did the math wrong (28K/(28K+73K)). Even removing 88 & 99 from his shoving range, worst case we still have 42%...so still quite +EV. Apologies for the error.

 

[colter ripton]

I'm calling but I'm not real excited about it..... Hopefully he has AK or AQ and went with a continuation bet on the flop and then called your raise with two overs and a gutterball straight draw. Certainly possible. I think we have too much in the middle, and the pot is too big to fold two pair here.

 

[upNdown]

The flop bet seems way to big for a diamond draw, unless he also had top pair with a crap kicker. But the jack of diamonds is on the table.
I think you’re ahead. Assuming this is a cash game, I’m calling. If it’s a tournament, I might find a fold.

 

[TheRepo]

I also messed up the number of "made" flushes in his range, which is 6.5% vs 26%...

Personally, I'd call in a tourney as well given the nature of the situation (drunk, weird betting pattern). Perhaps even more so calling in a tourney - assuming ICM intensity is low - but tough to get 250-400BB in the modern context of online tourney play to begin with so maybe a moot point.

 

[upNdown]

I also messed up the number of "made" flushes in his range, which is 6.5% vs 26%...

Personally, I'd call in a tourney as well given the nature of the situation (drunk, weird betting pattern). Perhaps even more so calling in a tourney - assuming ICM intensity is low - but tough to get 250-400BB in the modern context of online tourney play to begin with so maybe a moot point.

Good point. My only hesitancy is if I can make any sense of a drunk LAG’s betting, the only hand I can put him on that makes much sense, that I fear, is 78 diamonds.

 

[Gunnar]

We found a call and he showed J 7 off

Cash game and I was happy with the call. Last card was a 2

 

[upNdown]

So what the hell is he thinking with that overbet on the flop?

 

[Gunnar]

So what the hell is he thinking with that overbet on the flop?

Never underestimate a drunk guy with two pairs

 

[TheRepo]

Never mind the flop overbet, he opened J7o UTG for 7.5X??!!... Man, please tell me where we can find more players like this. Just wow.