Strategy vs Loose player… (1 Viewer)

xdukeluvax

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I think (some) people are confusing the a priori expectation with the actual outcome.

Let's you and I play a game. You will flip a (fair) coin exactly 10 times and I win if it lands on heads all 10 times.

A priori (a statistics term meaning before the event or game has started) my chance (ie probability) of winning is exceedingly small. The exact probability can be calculated using the Binomial distribution (@RainmanTrail Help????).

After the first 9 trials the result has been all heads (itself a very unlikely outcome but here we are). My chance of winning the whole game is now 50% (i.e. the 10th and final coin flip is a 50/50 chance). However unlikely I am to be in this scenario to begin with, the next coin flip is independent of what preceded it. This holds true (obviously) for rolling a die (1/6), black or red in Roulette (making these tracking systems somewhat curious), or hitting my two outer on the river (~5%).

Would you have predicted I would have won before we started? Probably not. Would you bet with me for the final flip? Probably.
Yes this definitely makes sense. I guess maybe what im getting mixed up is related to you even saying it hitting 9 times being an unlikely scenario meaning its really not supposed to hit 9 times in a row thus showing it being less likely to hit the same side over and over no? Definitely a mind bender although i do get its just 50/50 each flip
 

ekricket

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Did this comment make you feel like a real strong man? Lol
Just a joke man. Lighten up Francis.

Bet your draws and give them up when they miss and over bet them when they hit.
You can’t control whether they call or not, but you can control the size of the pot you win or lose.
Just don’t play against the guy. Let somebody else beat themselves up.
 

Frogzilla

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Against luckier than average LAG players I’d recommend focusing on the turn. Often that player profile has unbalanced turn play which can open up some easy edges. Observe turn tendencies by texture, adjust, then dominate
 

MatB

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Against luckier than average LAG players I’d recommend focusing on the turn. Often that player profile has unbalanced turn play which can open up some easy edges. Observe turn tendencies by texture, adjust, then dominate

Bring it !
 

TheADMIRAL

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He may actually just be a loose pre flop player and skilled post flop. Using his skill vs generally weaker opponents.
 

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