My understanding of probability is exactly why it has been so frustrating. People calling pot size bets getting 3/1 with %6 equity and hitting. I totally get everything swings back and evens out in the long but the guy has had a 6 month luck run like iv never seen before and was just curious on specific strategies people have vs luck boxes they know. Also gto does almost no good vs players like him
Okay I am going to take a swing at filling in the gap that @CrazyEddie
is trying to explain with an additional thought. This is one of the many great life lessons poker can teach. In this case, it is recognizing a human flaw to round probability off to 1 or 0. There is a difference between 80% and 100% even though I think most people interpret 80% as a near certainty when in truth it means there will be a miss for every 4 times it hits. And that miss is every bit as real as the 4 hits, even if it is outnumbered.
To your example, there is a big difference between 6% and zero by a similar token. That means roughly for every 16 times the outcome doesn't happen, it will happen once. And the one time it happens is every bit as real as the 16 it doesn't. Just because it's near zero, doesn't mean the chance no longer exists.
I think it's easy to forget the 16 times and take it for granted which makes it sting extra when the one time hits. The 16 times aren't memorable. These spots are players quietly calling bets to draw slim and folding without incident when they miss. It's usually unnoticed and taken for grated. But even if 1 time in 17 is rare, the one time is real, and it comes up, and it's far more noticed than the mundane 16 times the outcome hits.
"Bad luck is just probability taken personally." - Penn Jillette
I think most people worried about bad luck are just overestimating it because instances of bad luck are far more recognizable specifically because they are rare. And instances of good luck are so mundane they get taken for granted.
If you are the better player, paradoxally, you are going to be drawn out on more often simply because you will have the best of it in many more spots than a sucker. It's part of playing a winning game. To steer this back to strategy, you beat players that don't fold by maximizing your value bets to compensate for the lumps. Your victories will be consistent, though quiet and forgotten. Your defeats will be memorable, but should be reassuring that you will continue to have the opportunity to quietly stack chips in the hands the villain misses.