Stakes ratio between online and live? (1 Viewer)

[Coyote]

I 'm a steadily winning player at .02/.05 and a little bit more than break-even player at .05/.10 at P*stars.
Hell, I 'v even ventured into .08/.16 stakes (no .10/.20 stakes offered at P*stars) with success, although that may have been purely random.
I 've installed a Poker Tracker HUD but still make minimal use of it, out of being computer-illiterate.

What are the stakes, in your opinion, I should play with strangers in public games, whenever the casinos open up for business again?
I 've seen people write that if you 're good at any online stakes, you 're good for x100 the stakes live. Not sure.

 

[Legend5555]

It's very roughly around 10 to 1. So if you can beat 50nl online, you could beat 2/5. But, honestly, if you can beat 25nl, you can probably beat most 2/5 games. Just maybe not for max value.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

it's not consistent as you move up in stakes.

$25nl for sure has a higher level of play than 1/2nl in most cases but $100nl is not necessarily tougher than 5/10nl live (it's highly dependent on the player base).

and yet it's likely that you can still make more at $25nl online than at 1/2 nl, at least on a US based server.

the thing about live games though is that "beating" them isn't really the challenge, it's beating them for an hourly that's worth your time. in lower stakes live games, and especially if the games are good, you get in maybe 25 hands an hour. at $25nl online you should be able to get in at least 500 hands an hour. to do well live you need to be

that said the skills that it takes to crush low stakes live games is a lot different than beating low stakes online games so i wouldn't look at one to predict how i'd do at the other, and unless you've played a few hundred thousand hands at a given stake i wouldn't put too much stock in the results.

 

[Legend5555]

the skills that it takes to crush low stakes live games is a lot different than beating low stakes online games so i wouldn't look at one to predict how i'd do at the other,

I somewhat disagree. To beat 25nl takes good fundamentals. That is transferable to any poker game. I'm not saying they're aren't adjustments to be made live. But good fundamental play will certainly win you money up through 2/5 live. Though if you aren't making exploits in live play then yes, you won't be "crushing" the game.

The biggest differences between line and online play are the amount of 3 betting and the amount of multiway pots. Live has way less 3 betting and way more multiway action. Especially true at 1/2. 2/5 starts to have more 3 betting, but still lots of multiway hands.

In terms of making a decent wage, you can't really do that live until 2/5. Online, you can make a legit living playing 50nl if you can play 10 tables at a time and win at 4-6bb/100. I don't think you can really make a living at 25nl unless you can beat it for at least 8bb/100. And even then, we are only talking about $14-$20/hr depending on number of tables. You get about 60-75 hands per hour on non-zoom tables. 100nl is where where you can start making real money. And 100nl is no joke in terms of the skill needed to win at a good rate.

 

[Coyote]

Thanks for the answers up to now.
Just to clarify I 'm not looking to "make money". Just some pocket money.
Hell, even break-even is great. Entertainment without having to pay.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

Doesn’t sound like you really disagree.
Obviously the fundamentals to beat 25nl online will be passable to win at 1/2nl live but you’ll be making a pretty worthless hourly without major adjustments which is why I use beating $25nl in the same breath as crushing 1/2 live.

10bb/100 is basically $5/hour at 1/2. Before tips.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

Thanks for the answers up to now.
Just to clarify I 'm not looking to "make money". Just some pocket money.
Hell, even break-even is great. Entertainment without having to pay.

Realistic expectations is always a good first step.

 

[Legend5555]

Doesn’t sound like you really disagree.
Obviously the fundamentals to beat 25nl online will be passable to win at 1/2nl live but you’ll be making a pretty worthless hourly without major adjustments which is why I use beating $25nl in the same breath as crushing 1/2 live.

10bb/100 is basically $5/hour at 1/2. Before tips.

Hourly rates in live games tend to be much bigger. You can probably beat 1/2 for $15/hr after rake in a lot of lineups.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

$15/h is crushing by any reasonable definition.

… it’s 2-3x the upper limit of the rate that the biggest $25nl winners are winning at. You can maybe do better at very deep games in tourist towns but it would be the exception to the rule.

my original comment was that winning at 25$nl does not mean you’d ‘crush’ 1/2nl live (or the other way around). The big online winner for sure be winning at least for the same rate as they do online but beating 1/2nl live for 5 or 10bb/100 (a very good win rate for online $25nl) translates to a very poor hourly live. Similarly someone who can ‘crush’ 1/2 live might be a very small winner at $25nl online.

this does not necessarily scale up though. $500nl online has a mostly static player pool and I would estimate an hourly ceiling of around $100/h for top of the top players but 25/50 live is highly variable where small differences in player pools could make the ceiling $100/h or $500/h.

 

[Legend5555]

$15/h is crushing by any reasonable definition.

… it’s 2-3x the upper limit of the rate that the biggest $25nl winners are winning at. You can maybe do better at very deep games in tourist towns but it would be the exception to the rule.

my original comment was that winning at 25$nl does not mean you’d ‘crush’ 1/2nl live (or the other way around). The big online winner for sure be winning at least for the same rate as they do online but beating 1/2nl live for 5 or 10bb/100 (a very good win rate for online $25nl) translates to a very poor hourly live. Similarly someone who can ‘crush’ 1/2 live might be a very small winner at $25nl online.

this does not necessarily scale up though. $500nl online has a mostly static player pool and I would estimate an hourly ceiling of around $100/h for top of the top players but 25/50 live is highly variable where small differences in player pools could make the ceiling $100/h or $500/h.

$15/hr is a very achievable win rate in live 1/2 if you are a good player. You don't even have to bluff all that much either. The biggest winners in 1/2 probably get up to $20/hr. If you can find a place that doesn't rake max $7, you can get even higher. At that point though, it's best to just play 2/5 as the competition isn't that much better. Live games are so much softer than online games it's not even a comparison that makes sense a lot of the time. BB/100 is still a metric live, but one that makes less sense live as the volume is so low as to make that metric somewhat pointless towards defining your bottom line.

 

[Coyote]

Just a sad update.
I 'm now steadily loosing even at 2/5c, because of an explosive mixture of computer-savvy young wanna-be pros and semi-pros (or Eastern Europe multi-tabling actual pros) on one hand, and a swarm of cretinous maniacs, who seem to always be on heaters / rushes.
You tighten up to no avail. You use aggression (i.e. some degree of semi-bluffing or overvalueing your hand) only to be sucked out by the cretins.
That's in P*Stars.
I 'm just a reasonably-read, roughly competent / decent old fart who thinks he understands the basics and wants to play some poker for mental entertainment, without losing money, during the ongoing pandemic.
Could you recommend some softer site?

 

[LeLe]

I 'm now steadily loosing even at 2/5c, because of an explosive mixture of computer-savvy young wanna-be pros and semi-pros (or Eastern Europe multi-tabling actual pros) on one hand, and a swarm of cretinous maniacs, who seem to always be on heaters / rushes.

I think it also because for the past 18 months, a lot of Live Player went into Online Poker due to covid and now they had leave the online community over past 6 months as casino and live poker are opening out

The online table was really soft during 2nd half year 2010 to start of 2011; people are calling way too much with 1 pair or weak no kicker and/or folding too much to 3!

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

Just a sad update.
I 'm now steadily loosing even at 2/5c, because of an explosive mixture of computer-savvy young wanna-be pros and semi-pros (or Eastern Europe multi-tabling actual pros) on one hand, and a swarm of cretinous maniacs, who seem to always be on heaters / rushes.
You tighten up to no avail. You use aggression (i.e. some degree of semi-bluffing or overvalueing your hand) only to be sucked out by the cretins.
That's in P*Stars.
I 'm just a reasonably-read, roughly competent / decent old fart who thinks he understands the basics and wants to play some poker for mental entertainment, without losing money, during the ongoing pandemic.
Could you recommend some softer site?

all of them.
stars is absolutely the worst.

 

[grebe]

All the worst players are concentrated on the affiliate club places, like Poker Bros and Pokerrr2 these days. Players that are that bad just don't want to be up against grinders multi tabling 16 tables, which these days happens at all stakes. Also, totally agree that if you can beat any stakes at online, you can beat 1/2 live. Players just don't have the discipline live to play tight enough like they can online. Nobody drives to a casino to fold.

 

[Legend5555]

Nobody drives to a casino to fold.

 

[Coyote]

OK, I won 260BBs tonight in just 182 hands.
Still many aspiring pros or pros at the table, but they 've never been the issue.
A fairly competent player can steer clear from crocodiles peacufully waiting for hours for an unsuspecting victim, at VPIP/PFRs around 10/10.

The issue is the scandalously lucky cretins, always ultra-loose, and either ultra-passive or ultra-aggresive, who always have it and whom I even suspect to be bots in the service of the site.
Well, they didn't get lucky tonight.

 

[ekricket]

Just a sad update.
I 'm now steadily loosing even at 2/5c, because of an explosive mixture of computer-savvy young wanna-be pros and semi-pros (or Eastern Europe multi-tabling actual pros) on one hand, and a swarm of cretinous maniacs, who seem to always be on heaters / rushes.
You tighten up to no avail. You use aggression (i.e. some degree of semi-bluffing or overvalueing your hand) only to be sucked out by the cretins.
That's in P*Stars.
I 'm just a reasonably-read, roughly competent / decent old fart who thinks he understands the basics and wants to play some poker for mental entertainment, without losing money, during the ongoing pandemic.
Could you recommend some softer site?

You are playing some sort of bot. Hard to “crush” a machine that plays optimally. It never goes on tilt and it never gets distracted. It may be a human pushing buttons but it’s an algorithm making the decisions.
I wouldn’t compare any kind of online play with in-person play anymore.

 

[boltonguy]

Just a sad update.
I 'm now steadily loosing even at 2/5c, because of an explosive mixture of computer-savvy young wanna-be pros and semi-pros (or Eastern Europe multi-tabling actual pros) on one hand, and a swarm of cretinous maniacs, who seem to always be on heaters / rushes.
You tighten up to no avail. You use aggression (i.e. some degree of semi-bluffing or overvalueing your hand) only to be sucked out by the cretins.
That's in P*Stars.
I 'm just a reasonably-read, roughly competent / decent old fart who thinks he understands the basics and wants to play some poker for mental entertainment, without losing money, during the ongoing pandemic.
Could you recommend some softer site?

Ignition is softer

 

[grebe]

There is a $1.5/3 crazy mixed limit game for anybody that wants to get in on it....happens a couple times a week. You have to get comfortable with dealing with an affiliate, but it turns out I have a good one. He walked me thru a large BTC withdrawal and baby stepped me to make sure I was comfortable.

Not saying that game is soft, but it's fun!

Also, he can get you in all kinds of soft games on the affiliated sites, pokerbros, and suprema poker are the two I have experience with. He does international transactions as well.

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

Background on the guy? Does he have an established reputation in any community of note?

 

[grebe]

Background on the guy? Does he have an established reputation in any community of note?

He has a well attended discord channel that has players on it that I recognize their name. He is on 2+2, but I don't spend much time there. I have made a successful withdrawl and a couple swaps between sites. He is very attentive to me, a microstakes reg. He has been very helpful navigating crypto and the different club sites that he affiliates thru, including getting rakeback and shit like that. I have nothing but good things to say about him....he treats me well and I am a small fry in a place where BIG money is transacted.

HOWEVER: I have never met him and have known him (virtually) for only a few months. So understand this could all come crashing down at any moment.

That all being said, if you would like an introduction, PM me.

 

[Coyote]

The most extreme case of a cretin appeared yesterday (something like the Loch Ness monster) on Pokerstars.
With a VPIP/PFR of 70/10, he kept cracking people's AAs, KKs and QQs (including mine of course) with hands like 9-5 and J-3 suited.
He kept calling people's double-barrels with nothing. If they didn't fire a third barrel, he won with Ace high on the river showdown.
If they fired a third barrel, he would win with a straight made on the flop, which of course he hadn't bet.

A second cretin joined and hell broke loose.
The first cretin had a "rush" enduring 180 hands. The second one lasted shorter, but both got away with winnings in the order of 300+ BBs.
I lost 400BBs yesterday, the largest amount in my online endeavour.

Maybe the 're not bots, but maybe the site's algorithm may be rigged to favour that type of players, so that they come back and so that regs loose money to tilt.

Edit: Not throwing the Mac out of the window has been my huge success.

 

[grebe]

I had a similar player this morning. He beat my KK with 84s when he flopped a flush. I got him back though....rivered a straight flush to beat his flopped nut flush to my flopped under flush. So, I guess I am a river rat, too.

*I also had a sick hero call against another player....he 3 bet me and I didnt believe him because he was 3 betting at a large frequency. Anyways, I had KJs in position against him and flopped a gutter on a Q high flop...decided I was going to rep like I had a Q. He bet two streets and gave up on the river, when I shoved. He called and showed down 9T....he had second pair. oooffff.

 

[Coyote]

Playing now.
Called an all-in with KK.
Flop came 44J
Villain had 44

 

[CarlosStorm]

Maybe the 're not bots, but maybe the site's algorithm may be rigged to favour that type of players, so that they come back and so that regs loose money to tilt.

Yes, I sometimes think that these kind of sites can have algorithms that allow they earn more money. I'm a computer engineer, and I wonder how the 'authorites' control this. I think they can check that the system mix randomly the cards, but may they have some hidden code to change this behaviour

 

[Coyote]

OK. I won 200BBs, after 260 hands. Maybe a sweetener to naive regulars.