OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
OK, adding in 5 more games for today...
Oakland -106
San Diego +135
Atlanta +135
Colorado +175
Milwaukee +113
Sports Betting with Rainman (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter RainmanTrail
- Start date
OK, adding in 5 more games for today...
Oakland -106
San Diego +135
Atlanta +135
Colorado +175
Milwaukee +113
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Went 1-4 yesterday with one rainout. Still up for the season, but getting pummeled this week. It's a marathon though, not a sprint
Record Winning Percentage Dollars Won
35 - 46 - 1 43.21% $204.44
Average Amount Earned Per Bet $2.49
Average Amount Bet Per Bet $152.43
Average Return on Investment 2%
Average Odds Per Bet 137
Average Breakeven Winning Percentage 42%
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
May 7th games
NHL Playoffs
Nashville +148
MLB
NY Yankees +116
more to come...
NHL Playoffs
Nashville +148
MLB
NY Yankees +116
more to come...
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Got crushed yesterday. Will update later today. Gotta get these bets in now though for today...
LA Dodgers +142
Atlanta +137
Oakland +143
Tampa Bay +116
San Diego +140
Minnesota +180
LA Dodgers +142
Atlanta +137
Oakland +143
Tampa Bay +116
San Diego +140
Minnesota +180
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Getting crushed lately, and haven't had a chance to update my database. I have comp exams this week at school, so probably won't get around to entering everything until the weekend. I'll still try to get my bets posted before the games start though. There are a ton of games today though, which makes me leery. You can't beat the house if you're betting on everything. I should be averaging around 4 games per day or so.
May 9 games are:
Houston +105
San Francisco +113
Detroit +180
Cincinnati +114
Chicago White Sox +108
Arizona +153
LA Dodgers -103
Tampa Bay +120
May 9 games are:
Houston +105
San Francisco +113
Detroit +180
Cincinnati +114
Chicago White Sox +108
Arizona +153
LA Dodgers -103
Tampa Bay +120
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
OK, here are the results for the past 3 days. Getting crushed this week. Ran into a set of deuces on the river in a few games haha. Onward and upward...
Date
League
Bet On
Bet Type
Line
Visitor
Home
Risk
Odds
Winnings
1 5/9/16 MLB Giants (Jake Peavy) M/L 0 Blue Jays Giants $176.99 113 ($176.99)
2 5/9/16 MLB Dodgers (Scott Kazmir) M/L 0 Mets Dodgers $206 -103 ($206)
3 5/9/16 MLB Rays (Matt Moore) M/L 0 Rays Mariners $166.67 120 ($166.67)
4 5/9/16 MLB Diamondbacks (Archie Bradley) M/L 0 Diamondbacks Rockies $130.72 153 $200
5 5/9/16 MLB Astros (Mike Fiers) M/L 0 Indians Astros $190.48 105 $200
6 5/9/16 MLB White Sox (Miguel Gonzalez) M/L 0 White Sox Rangers $185.19 108 $200.01
7 5/9/16 MLB Reds (Dan Straily) M/L 0 Pirates Reds $175.44 114 $200
8 5/9/16 MLB Tigers (Anibal Sanchez) M/L 0 Tigers Nationals $111.11 180 ($111.11)
9 5/8/16 MLB Padres (Andrew Cashner) M/L 0 Mets Padres $142.86 140 ($142.86)
10 5/8/16 MLB Rays (Matt Andriese) M/L 0 Rays Angels $172.41 116 $200
11 5/8/16 MLB Twins (Tyler Duffey) M/L 0 Twins White Sox $111.11 180 ($111.11)
12 5/8/16 MLB Braves (Mike Foltynewicz) M/L 0 Diamondbacks Braves $145.99 137 ($145.99)
13 5/8/16 MLB Athletics (Kendall Graveman) M/L 0 Athletics Orioles $139.86 143 ($139.86)
14 5/8/16 MLB Dodgers (Ross Stripling) M/L 0 Dodgers Blue Jays $140.85 142 $200.01
16 5/7/16 MLB Twins (Ervin Santana) M/L 0 Twins White Sox $103.09 194 ($103.09)
17 5/7/16 MLB Athletics (Jesse Hahn) M/L 0 Athletics Orioles $168.07 119 ($168.07)
18 5/7/16 MLB Indians (Cody Anderson) M/L 0 Royals Indians $214 -107 ($214)
19 5/7/16 MLB Rockies (Jon Gray) M/L 0 Rockies Giants $121.95 164 ($121.95)
20 5/7/16 MLB Yankees (Nathan Eovaldi) M/L 0 Red Sox Yankees $172.41 116 $200
Record Winning Percentage Dollars Won
42 - 58 - 1 42% ($203.25)
Average Amount Earned Per Bet ($2.01)
Average Amount Bet Per Bet $153.21
Average Return on Investment -1%
Average Odds Per Bet 136
Average Breakeven Winning Percentage 42%
haha. Onward and upward...Date
1 5/9/16 MLB Giants (Jake Peavy) M/L 0 Blue Jays Giants $176.99 113 ($176.99)
2 5/9/16 MLB Dodgers (Scott Kazmir) M/L 0 Mets Dodgers $206 -103 ($206)
3 5/9/16 MLB Rays (Matt Moore) M/L 0 Rays Mariners $166.67 120 ($166.67)
4 5/9/16 MLB Diamondbacks (Archie Bradley) M/L 0 Diamondbacks Rockies $130.72 153 $200
5 5/9/16 MLB Astros (Mike Fiers) M/L 0 Indians Astros $190.48 105 $200
6 5/9/16 MLB White Sox (Miguel Gonzalez) M/L 0 White Sox Rangers $185.19 108 $200.01
7 5/9/16 MLB Reds (Dan Straily) M/L 0 Pirates Reds $175.44 114 $200
8 5/9/16 MLB Tigers (Anibal Sanchez) M/L 0 Tigers Nationals $111.11 180 ($111.11)
9 5/8/16 MLB Padres (Andrew Cashner) M/L 0 Mets Padres $142.86 140 ($142.86)
10 5/8/16 MLB Rays (Matt Andriese) M/L 0 Rays Angels $172.41 116 $200
11 5/8/16 MLB Twins (Tyler Duffey) M/L 0 Twins White Sox $111.11 180 ($111.11)
12 5/8/16 MLB Braves (Mike Foltynewicz) M/L 0 Diamondbacks Braves $145.99 137 ($145.99)
13 5/8/16 MLB Athletics (Kendall Graveman) M/L 0 Athletics Orioles $139.86 143 ($139.86)
14 5/8/16 MLB Dodgers (Ross Stripling) M/L 0 Dodgers Blue Jays $140.85 142 $200.01
16 5/7/16 MLB Twins (Ervin Santana) M/L 0 Twins White Sox $103.09 194 ($103.09)
17 5/7/16 MLB Athletics (Jesse Hahn) M/L 0 Athletics Orioles $168.07 119 ($168.07)
18 5/7/16 MLB Indians (Cody Anderson) M/L 0 Royals Indians $214 -107 ($214)
19 5/7/16 MLB Rockies (Jon Gray) M/L 0 Rockies Giants $121.95 164 ($121.95)
20 5/7/16 MLB Yankees (Nathan Eovaldi) M/L 0 Red Sox Yankees $172.41 116 $200
Record Winning Percentage Dollars Won
42 - 58 - 1 42% ($203.25)
Average Amount Earned Per Bet ($2.01)
Average Amount Bet Per Bet $153.21
Average Return on Investment -1%
Average Odds Per Bet 136
Average Breakeven Winning Percentage 42%
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
May 10 games
MIL +152
DET +167
OAK +105
MIN +104
SF +120
CIN +126
MIL +152
DET +167
OAK +105
MIN +104
SF +120
CIN +126
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
May 11 games:
MIN -106
TOR +108
MIN -106
TOR +108
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Last edited:
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
About to go 0-7 today... yikes!
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
May 12th games are:
HOU +132
ATL +122
LAA +119
DET +160
HOU +132
ATL +122
LAA +119
DET +160
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
This run is insane. I said some regression was headed my way, but this is starting to stretch outside of my confidence limits... Getting crushed again today
chase
Two Pair
It will swing back around! I'd say whatever the model tells you bet against the Twins or steer clear, they are pathetic.
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Here's where we're at for the season. I just lost 13 straight games this week, and that's AFTER getting my ass handed to me last week. Went from $1k profit to being down over $2k. Previously, I had a 2k downswing as being the largest "expected" downswing, so a 3k swing is pretty significant. The model saw a couple of 2k downswings over a 7 year period of data. Here's where we're at for the season. Probably won't be making it back into positive territory after this downswing.
As the worm would say, "I caught a frozen wave of cards like you fucking read about..."
Onward and upward
As the worm would say, "I caught a frozen wave of cards like you fucking read about..."
Onward and upward
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
My model usually bets bad teams, and the Tigers, Twins, A's, and Angels are all 5-35 combined in their last 40 games... pretty crazy. 3 of them are 1-9 and the Angels are 2-8 for the last 10
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
OK, this is nuts. The model again has 9 games today! You can't win if you're betting that many games normally. I'm taking the day off. I need to reevaluate to see what's going on. It's possible that teams are just extremely polarized, but that's pretty unlikely. Even the worst teams in baseball still win 60+ games per year. Right now, these teams are on a 16-146 record pace. Obviously, that's not going to happen.
Vegas is getting destroyed right now too FWIW.
Vegas is getting destroyed right now too FWIW.
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
I'm just taking 3 games of the 9 today.
MIA +155
NYY +145
ARI +135
The other 6 are:
MIN
ATL
HOU
LAA
COL
DET
MIA +155
NYY +145
ARI +135
The other 6 are:
MIN
ATL
HOU
LAA
COL
DET
bergs
Royal Flush
What did you change in the model to cull out the other 6 games? Don't give away the secret sauce, just curious what kind of factors led to that decision.
chase
Two Pair
Probably trying minimize risk? In my experience you don't roll all games and pick your top choices.
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
I didn't change anything with the model. I just picked a few matches that I "felt better" about after watching some games (I usually watch a lot of baseball, or at least have it running in the background while I'm doing homework). But there's no science behind my narrowing it down.
If I had more time, I'd probably be digging into the model and running some statistical tests. The distribution of mismatches this year seems rather odd, and is causing my model to bet more games than normal. I'd like to inspect it, but I just don't have the time right now, unfortunately. To have one day this far into a season with 7-9 wagers would have been an outlier in previous seasons, but somewhat expected. But for me to have 3 or 4 days with that many games on the ticket means that there's an underlying factor somewhere that is different about this year from previous years.
If I had more time, I'd probably be digging into the model and running some statistical tests. The distribution of mismatches this year seems rather odd, and is causing my model to bet more games than normal. I'd like to inspect it, but I just don't have the time right now, unfortunately. To have one day this far into a season with 7-9 wagers would have been an outlier in previous seasons, but somewhat expected. But for me to have 3 or 4 days with that many games on the ticket means that there's an underlying factor somewhere that is different about this year from previous years.
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
0-2 so far today. That's 15 straight losses lol
Previously, my win-rate was about 48-49%, almost a coin flip. Try flipping a quarter until you get a run of 15 straight heads. Easier said than done...
Previously, my win-rate was about 48-49%, almost a coin flip. Try flipping a quarter until you get a run of 15 straight heads. Easier said than done...
Chicken Rob
Full House
I have a biased quarter and a 2 headed quarter. Only one of them is easy to get 15 heads in a row.0-2 so far today. That's 15 straight losses lol
Previously, my win-rate was about 48-49%, almost a coin flip. Try flipping a quarter until you get a run of 15 straight heads. Easier said than done...
This seems like unfortunate anomalous results. I hope you're not in a spot to have to give up.
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Ya, I'm not too worried. It's definitely an anomaly. It's a good thing I'm only betting $200 each game. I'm betting with my winnings, but they are running low now, lol
If I were betting a couple thousand each game, I'd be more concerned. I actually almost upped my bet amounts this season, but I decided against it.
It takes a lot to tilt me. I've had worse runs than this on the felt in my career. Several times. But this is definitely a pretty extreme outlier.
If I were betting a couple thousand each game, I'd be more concerned. I actually almost upped my bet amounts this season, but I decided against it.
It takes a lot to tilt me. I've had worse runs than this on the felt in my career. Several times. But this is definitely a pretty extreme outlier.
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
0-3 today. Extending my losing streak to 0-16. I think the Blazers had an 0-16 start a few years back. Or was that the Lakers? Hmm hahaha
Chicken Rob
Full House
I remember an 0-16 start for the lions in '08.
manamongkids
Full House
take the red sox overs. free money
OP
OP
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
I did some statsitical analysis on my ROR (risk of ruin) with what's remaining in my sports betting account, and I'm pretty much guaranteed to go broke if I don't reload it. However, I'm heading to the WSOP here in a few weeks, and I'd prefer to keep my money in cash for now.
I should be able to still retrospectively check the games, so I'll check back to see how the model would be doing, but for now, I'm folding.
I'll probably pick back up on the bet postings after I get back from the WSOP
I should be able to still retrospectively check the games, so I'll check back to see how the model would be doing, but for now, I'm folding.
I'll probably pick back up on the bet postings after I get back from the WSOP
Create an account or login to comment
You must be a member in order to leave a comment
Create account
Create an account and join our community. It's easy!
Log in
Already have an account? Log in here.
