Sport Card Breaks (1 Viewer)

broski_ICE

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Hey guys -

So... I just got into breaking sports cards in boxes on lives streams.

I'm sure this Venn diagram overlaps (maybe not a ton but it has to be at lease a little bit).

So my prompt / question is - does anyone have a GTO theory for breaking sports cards?

I have a rudimentary theory for product being broken vs buy in price.

But for more specific Game Theory, I'm wondering how much the cases/boxes pay off, and what % of teams are in there and all of that.
I'm figuring it out as best I can with my own sports knowledge, but I'm wondering if we could crack down a value algorithm based on the boxes/product being broken, teams left, odds in those boxes, etc. If the odds for a (ie) rookie patch auto are X in Y, it seems like it would be a solved game. Then add in the years for the breaks and all of that stuff.


TLDR; broski_ICE is drunk and blew his stash on sports breaks. Thinking with a mathematical mind/poker gto outlook, think we can crack different values on what people offer? Theres soooooo many variables but a decent baseline would be cool

Thanks PCF. In vino veritas I guess!
 
You gotta walk me through this one, whats a break? Im picturing you ripping cards in a box and hoping for a profit and I'm fairly certain thats wrong.
 
You gotta walk me through this one, whats a break? Im picturing you ripping cards in a box and hoping for a profit and I'm fairly certain thats wrong.
You're not too far off actually
[quick edit - sorry for the wall of text]

Let's just say football for this - Different 'card breakers' will buy bigger more expensive football card boxes (these can get up to some crazy amounts, I honestly didn't believe the collectors prices) which have guaranteed limited editions, autographs, cards with patches, numbered cards (this is x card out of y printed). Most breaks will be a couple different boxes being 'broken' or opened.

Then in different ways they will sell off the box to people on the stream - basically a live auction. A lot of ways included are getting a team for X amount, then you get all the cards for that team. Sometimes you can buy a random spin for a team, or maybe the auction team by team and the better teams for that year (maybe it's a 21-22 box and the eagles, niners, steelers, jets, lions, would be more valuable than the browns or rams based on their rookie class that year, then those teams would go for more because Jalen Hurts could be there for the eagles, etc) but, basically every team has at least some value because you never know what could be coming with historic cards and all that

People get creative with the breaks - multiple sports, maybe baseball and football so if you get Minnesota you'd get all the Vikings and Twins cards. Or maybe different ways to auction off teams, let you spin the wheel 3 times for random teams then you pick one of the 3, so you get one team but might pay a little more to have the choice of three than getting 'stuck' with a team, and a lot of other ways


It's honestly stupid fun and exciting for a smaller investment if you have a good eye and are patient, with some dope payouts available (but maybe think about that in terms of hitting the promotion for the hour at the local card room? or Aces cracked etc)


My Game Theory brain figured out a rudimentary way to equate value and find good picks. Maybe all the 'product' (the boxes they are ripping) adds up to $600 total (maybe 5 total boxes, one box costs $200 then maybe 4 other boxes cost $100 a piece)

Then $600 / 32 football teams = $18.75, the average lotto ticket buy in

So then I figure, if you can get a spot for $15 bucks, that's decent positive expected value.

But then - Maybe there are 10 teams left and the $15 gets you a random spin. Looking at the 10 teams left, maybe it's loaded with 7 good/decent teams and 3 rough teams (even though the rougher teams can still hit/have some value). Or maybe the 10 teams left for the random spin have 7 less valuable teams and 3 better teams. So you're $15 has great +EV on the wheel with a 70% chance to get the better prospected teams, but maybe not so much for the wheel where you have a 70% chance to get a team that's less valuable (but still has some value).
Taking into account the year, the cards available for those teams, the special editions, all of that

Let me know if any of this makes sense lol it's hard to describe over text lol


If you have any type of curiosity, I'll find a video of one and send it over w/ timestamps of what I mean so you don't have to waste too much time

It's STUPID FUN. Especially from a Game Theory and analytical value stand point. My buddy who showed me was surprised I sunk my teeth into it so much. I'm thinking it's a solved game if you take into account the possibility of crazy cards for each team (autographed numbered patches or combo of those and all that)
And a solved game should be beatable

BUT, the time frame they make the auctions take and use means you need to be quick on your toes

Thanks for the reply NotRealName, apologies for the wall of text lmao
 
Dont apologize, glad you enjoy it! Definitely be wary of thinking its a solved game or easy lol, its still gambling and sounds like they sucked you in.

Sounds fun and Id peep a video but not my thing.
 
Dont apologize, glad you enjoy it! Definitely be wary of thinking its a solved game or easy lol, its still gambling and sounds like they sucked you in.

Sounds fun and Id peep a video but not my thing.

Nooooo absolutely it's still gambling for sure. And the values for the cards on the market make the 'solved game' very tricky for sure especially today's values vs the jumps or drops in the future.
But it still should be a 0-sum game at the very least. If you're getting a 1/32 chance for less than the retail cost of that 1/32 - that's you're positive value. Then deep diving into the rosters and cards available in there for chances of 'hits' and all of that

But, still gambling 100% and I'm keeping an eye on it. But very fun to do as a passtime/hobby and not thinking about going pro on it, my head is still screwed on straight lol.

I'll see if I can find a quick video link that recaps how they work, the whole thing can last as little as a half hour to a couple hours even. Which is another entertainment aspect, I like bingo because your money will hold for a couple hours and this similar!
 
Good, just wanted to make sure you were grounded. Cool cool, enjoy it.
For sure - Appreciate the looking out, absolutely

It's a mix of gambling, sports knowledge, game theory, stock market, and all of that for relatively cheap (compared to some other hobbies we might have on here lol)

Really is fun stuff if you're patient and don't go overboard
 

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