Shove or Not (1 Viewer)

[Trihonda]

Setting. MTT last night. Down to the final table and just burst the bubble (still not decent money until a few more are eliminated). The blinds are crazy fast (1k/2k just doubled from 500/1k), and going card dead at the worst time has me dwindled down to 8k. I had nothing shovable. There is one stack with 7.5k, one stack with 11k, and a couple 15-20k stack. The others are monster stacked (from another table, with 100-150k). No antes.

I'm in the SB. One 2k caller in MP (with 20k), but everyone else folds to me. I look down at . To me this seems like an easy shove with 4bbs.

However, there is climbing the money ladder to consider. It's very likely at this table that 1 or more of the short stacks will be getting it in vs the monster stacks very soon, and all I'd have to do is survive an orbit or two, and if 2-3 shorter stacks bust out before me, I'd make an extra couple hundred bucks. I don't normally consider blinding myself out to climb up the money ladder, except in the case of satellites. Normally I'm going for the win.

Just curious about people's thoughts on this type of situation? No right or wrong answer. Going for extra cash is fine, going for the win is fine too.

In the end, the results shouldn't matter. I shove, BB shoves their 11k stack, and MP folds. We're heads up and the BB tables . The queens hold.

If the BB didn't have a hand, my shove would have likely gotten through the BB and MP, and I would be +4k (or an increase of 50%).

Again, this is just the results. Just curious if folks would hold out for more money...

 

[MegaTon44]

I would rather play to win than play to not lose, especially since the payout difference wasn't dramatic. I replicate your shove every time in that scenario.

 

[Forest@Farmington]

I am for going for the win. So I would have shoved. You already are in the money so shove and see what happens. Like you stated you may have moved up but, they could be doing the same thing and now you have less to shove the next time.

 

[Josh Kifer]

Yeah, I shove.

 

[detroitdad]

tltr

shove

 

[Jimulacrum]

Shove, especially with a hand as strong as . With only 3.5 BB, there's no time to wait around, and it's a bit of a longshot for 2 or 3 opponents to bust in a couple orbits. Trying to steal the 2.5 BB that's out there (or potentially doubling up) is a better option than sitting on your tiny stack and hoping.

 

[links_slayer]

Is this a serious question w/ 4bb?

 

[TheBigTater]

4bb in the SB with one limper, I'm shoving with ATC that have a prayer. You've got broadway suited connectors, shove as fast as possible.

 

[Trihonda]

Is this a serious question w/ 4bb?

4bb in the SB with one limper, I'm shoving with ATC that have a prayer. You've got broadway suited connectors, shove as fast as possible.

Yes, this is a serious question. As I had stated, I believe this is a clear shove. For my game. For my play.

As I was sitting at the nearby bar afterwards, a few of the regs were asking why I didn’t just hold on and let the table eat itself? It’s not the way I play, but judging from the players and table dynamic, I can see the play.

Trying not to be results oriented, but the old nitty regs called it. Four hands after I busted, there was a 4-way AIPF, busting out 3 players. I knew the game played like this, but still chose to shove. I don’t regret the decision one bit

Just wondering if there are some who might go for the money bump? I couldn’t fault someone if they did

 

[Meddler2]

On the other hand, given the scenario what is the probability that you were going to win THIS tourney? I think there's some merit in letting a couple more people get ko'd and you shove afterwards making a little more $$. But I rarely play tourneys so probably never correct.

 

[SWEATER]

when in doubt shove

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is in a terrible spot now. JTs looks pretty but there seems little chance that the limper is going to fold to the small raise {jam} or that hero could be much better than a coin flip vs the limper.

A better question to ask is - - - why did Hero end up here? I hope the answer is Hero just got tangled up in a big hand that went wrong rather than Hero was card dead for a couple of orbits and got ground down by blinds or limp/folds. Maybe Hero lost track or didn't fully understand the speed of the blinds and the length of stages. Or maybe this is an ultra fast blind structure where each level only lasts a few hands.

It is quite possible the better strategy discussion is when Hero should have open jammed with two rags rather than waiting so late where his shove has little or no fold equity.

Patience is not always a virtue -=- DrStrange

 

[Rhodeman77]

The only time I think about folding is if you have a read on the MP limp that he would only do this with a monster hand to try to induce a steal. Short of that info it is a shove for sure.

 

[Trihonda]

Hero is in a terrible spot now. JTs looks pretty but there seems little chance that the limper is going to fold to the small raise {jam} or that hero could be much better than a coin flip vs the limper.

A better question to ask is - - - why did Hero end up here? I hope the answer is Hero just got tangled up in a big hand that went wrong rather than Hero was card dead for a couple of orbits and got ground down by blinds or limp/folds. Maybe Hero lost track or didn't fully understand the speed of the blinds and the length of stages. Or maybe this is an ultra fast blind structure where each level only lasts a few hands.

It is quite possible the better strategy discussion is when Hero should have open jammed with two rags rather than waiting so late where his shove has little or no fold equity.

Patience is not always a virtue -=- DrStrange

Valid points. TO answer: All of the above sorta...

I was chip leader at my table, but it's a rebuy tourney, and the other table developed some MONSTER stacks. Starting stacks were 2500, and I was close to 40k at one point. Then ran into a cooler hand, against a guy on a draw that wouldn't go away and hit a GS. Then with 17k, I get moved to the table with blinds at 500/1k, about to be 1k/2k. I double up a guy AIPF with AK vs an underpair. Caught a K, villain caught a set. Down to 9k. Guys on either side of me are super agro with 150k stacks. When I say card dead, I mean I for an orbit I was getting 82o, 72o, 39o.... I can't make a play with my stack against several agro guys who are raising my stack every hand (ahead of me). Just a bad situation. Made the best of it I think.

 

[HanShot1st]

Question to ask yourself...

Are you playing to build/rebuild a bankroll? Then you wait, and get paid.

If it’s just about “can I win the whole thing,” then it’s a shove.

IMO

 

[chase]

Shove. My thought in tournies is always go for the win. You (I) don’t play tournies to min cash, you’re better off in a cash game for that, get in there and go for the win!

 

[krafticus]

You get moved to a table that has different blinds than your current table??? That doesn’t make sense

 

[Trihonda]

You get moved to a table that has different blinds than your current table??? That doesn’t make sense

Nope. Was 500/1000, got moved to the FT, where it shortly bumped to 1/2k. . Lost decent amount to a shorter stack early on 66>AK And there were players at my table who are extremely deep stacked with 150bbs. They came from a table with crazy unlimited rebuy action. These guys were hyper agro, .and were often opening for 8bbs (essentially my stack). When I’m getting 82o and 93o, I’m not just calling off my stack with cards like that. Situation sucked, but that’s poker.

 

[krafticus]

Nope. Was 500/1000, got moved to the FT, where it shortly bumped to 1/2k. . Lost decent amount to a shorter stack early on. And there were players at my table who are extremely deep stacked. They came from a table with crazy re

Gotcha. They way it was written seemed you were moved to a table with different blinds.

“Then with 17k, I get moved to the table with blinds at 500/1k, about to be 1k/2k”

 

[Steve Birrer]

I am taking a counter vew here. I am folding.

1. Given the status of the other stacks its unlikely you are getting high in the money without some huge luck anyway.
2. You have an entire round before you have to put in more blinds (key here is no antes) so two things can fall in your favor.
a. One or more of the other short stacks may bust.
b. You may get a better hand to shove with than J 10 suited. Not that thats a bad hand to shove with.
c. The options for the hand are not favorable. The BEST scenario is you are about a flip to win the hand. Not having been at the table you have some intel on the original limper but I am very leery of a guy who limps in this situation. Short of being a total idiot he KNOWS that short stacks sitting behind him will likely shove with anything decent. So he is likely to actually have a hand. Folding when the BB shoves doesn't mean you likely are ahead of the limper. He clearly didn't have a monster but he may there are numerous hands he could have you dominated but choose to fold when the BB shoves.

So I am folding and hoping that I move up through the back door. And note that the worst case is that nobody else busts out, you don't get a better spot to shove, and you end up in the SAME place that you were by shoving there.

 

[longflop]

"You play to win the game." - Herm Edwards

 

[Anthony Martino]

The problem here is your lack of fold equity given the limper, plus the likelihood that the limper has a hand that is ahead (suited Ace, KQ, etc). Unless you think this guy is limping 89 suited?

The blinds are 1/2K and just got there, you're in the SB, so you have 1K in already, and as far as I can read 8K behind. Call the additional 1K unless you expect the BB is the type to take advantage of a spot like this and shove. Dropping from 8K to 7K doesn't really make a difference at this point.

You get to usually see a flop and you have just over a pot-sized bet with first-in equity post-flop (i.e. you act first after the flop)

The BB waking up with QQ not much you can do about that. But the way I see this spot, the next hand you'll be on the button, and have a full rotation before the blinds hit you again to find another spot (a better hand or being first-in with a shove if there's no limpers)

 

[upNdown]

Shove, especially with a hand as strong as . With only 3.5 BB, there's no time to wait around, and it's a bit of a longshot for 2 or 3 opponents to bust in a couple orbits. Trying to steal the 2.5 BB that's out there (or potentially doubling up) is a better option than sitting on your tiny stack and hoping.

How strong is it? My sense on J10 or J10 suited is it’s a good speculatory hand and a good hand for cracking aces or kings. But in this situation, late in the tournament with short stacks and a short stack limper, I think I’d feel a lot better shoving with ace rag or even king rag than I would with J10 suited.
(And I get that OP was really just shoving his mighty stack with anything and hoping not to get a caller, but my point is that maybe J10 isn’t a strong hand in this situation.)
Tell me why I’m wrong.

 

[Jimulacrum]

How strong is it? My sense on J10 or J10 suited is it’s a good speculatory hand and a good hand for cracking aces or kings. But in this situation, late in the tournament with short stacks and a short stack limper, I think I’d feel a lot better shoving with ace rag or even king rag than I would with J10 suited.
(And I get that OP was really just shoving his mighty stack with anything and hoping not to get a caller, but my point is that maybe J10 isn’t a strong hand in this situation.)
Tell me why I’m wrong.

I'd actually hate shoving with king-rag and only slightly less so with ace-rag. With those hands, you're running a much more significant risk of running into a dominating hand (3:1 dog) when you get called because all big aces and many big kings will call you, and you're a 2.3:1 dog against any in-between pairs.

With TJs, domination is a little less likely, and your hand is at the top of the suited-connector spectrum, with high enough cards that you're racing against 8/13 possible pocket pairs and generally will be good if you hit a flush. It's also worth noting that TJs is almost exactly 50/50 against king-rag and ace-rag.

I'm not advocating shoving routinely with TJs, but in this situation, you have to take a chance, and it's among the better hands you could find yourself having to gamble with.

 

[Fishhooks]

Shove. Always go for first place.

 

[EasyE]

Maybe not with this much confidence
but shove