Risk to GB? Market change? (1 Viewer)

[surferb]

I’m sensing a breach of trust. Does this impact your willingness to GB? What about risk to community? It amazed me how quickly we all bailed from CT, then it lost it’s “network effect”.

I’m fine with a “secret GB” and being excluded (although, like everyone else would have been very interested). My faves would have been BG, but that’s beside the point.

My main concern is about the supply side of rare collectables. The information change from Paulsons only being available to licensed casinos to otherwise adds risk to the “supply” and basically forces me to consider value at playability, not investment/rarity. My interpretation of playability has risen, so $2-3/chip is still acceptable, more for oversized. However, I have purchased many sets/partials that I “like”, knowing they’re “overpriced”, most often not playable except in a mixed set, with the justification in the back of my mind that they’re a sort of investment based on rare supply and the demand of the community. Not that I want to make a killing from yaal, but that there is a comfortable inherent value and degree of liquidity.

I’m curious if demand side shifts. I get the feeling a lot of people got their bubbles burst. I know many folks like playing with good chips. Not sure how many collectors and enthusiests exist outside this community by percentage.

In any event, after some sell off, I still have pretty significant chip holdings, as many other hoarders here do. I just paid off all my debts in full last month (condo, cars, everything). Now, with renewed cash flow, I’m reluctant to invest in chipping. Stocks, cryptocurrency, and money in the bank for now. In fact, this may prompt more sell off. It could be a buyers market for awhile. My collection is overkill for whatever I’d play with. I do love chips, though. This could make my wife very happy.

Thoughts?

 

[timinater]

the justification in the back of my mind that they’re a sort of investment based on rare supply and the demand of the community. Not that I want to make a killing from yaal, but that there is a comfortable inherent value and degree of liquidity.

Collectibles are NOT an investment no matter how much they may appreciate. An investment produces an undeniable value, a collectibles value is based on how much people want the thing.

That said, I think you'll always be able to sell/trade chips around here so there certainly is that liquidity you mention.

 

[Mathieu]

I would of also liked to be included in the GB that was kept secret. Just note that being left out sucks.

 

[Taghkanic]

I’d like to know more about these investments which produce an undeniable value.

 

[timinater]

I’d like to know more about these investments which produce an undeniable value.

In theory... haha.

 

[gopherblue]

I agree with Tim. I think there will always be a demand for quality chips, but that doesn’t make them an investment in the classic sense. They are a collectible only and should be viewed as such. There is scarcity of casino sets, and that won’t change, other than as time goes by more and more retired racks may hit the market ala TCR. But also, tomorrow GPI could say “f#ck it, we’re selling to the home market” and all of this could change. CPC has the true custom clay market locked up, such that it is, but if Paulson entered, even under the BCC brand, that would change the market dynamics.

 

[ssanel54]

Agree with Timinater. The Hobby became a lot less fun when investment value became a consideration and flipping became a profitable business.

In regards to Group Buys, Its tough to say. CT used to have some strict guidelines regarding what defines a group buy, and what is allowed on the site. I thought it was a little stupid at the time, but maybe it did have some merit. What was pulled off with GPI really wasn't a group buy, it was a private venture by Tommy where he needed to include some others to pull it off. We all know, it could not and would not have been possible had the entire forum been invited to participate.

Now, say I have a similar opportunity to buy 300K chips from GPI and I want to invite others to participate. Its still not possible to allow everyone to participate, so how do I decide? I know there are plenty of "fair" ways which could be done, but I don't want to be fair. I want to control who gets the opportunity. I want only people that I like, and exclude anyone who was involved in the purchase of the Star chips. I am sure that this would be some type of violation, as IIRC someone tried to do a classified ad closed to Trump Supporters and it was shut down. Therefore, my only option would be to invite people via PM, and keep the details off of the forum.

I dont think we'll see any of these buy opportunities publicly advertised unless there is a vendor involved who can fulfill an uncapped demand.

 

[Taghkanic]

IDGI. Most any purchase can be looked at an investment.

Whenever you buy something, you may (or may not) be able to sell it later for more or less than you paid. The potential future value is always something one can analyze and speculate about. Some purchases lose their value almost immediately upon purchase, e.g. a fancy cut of meat. But others retain them, or go up and down in value—just like a more traditional investment. And I’d put collectible poker chips into that category for sure.

I try whenever possible to make purchases which serve dual functions, as both pleasurable/useful objects, and also as investments. It’s a win-win. I can enjoy or make use of them for what they are, and if I never sell them or never recoup my investment, that is OK. But if I sell them, if they are of a good quality or rarity, I may eventually recoup my money—in which case, the time I owned the object was in effect free, or very low cost. Or, I might even make a profit.

For example, I recently purchased a vehicle for my farm property which cost me a significant amount of money, but which I am reasonably confident will retain much of its value for 10-15 years, if I maintain it properly. If I made a canny purchase (this was a slightly used vehicle, which I felt was undervalued), I may even get more money back out than I paid, especially assuming I place a value on the use I get out of it in the meantime.

Both of my main sets (Paulson Starbursts, ASM/HCE H-molds) fit this description. If I die with them, I will have gotten my money’s worth in enjoyment. But I would certainly leave a note in their cases to my heirs to say: “Do not take these to the thrift store, or sell these at a tag sale! They may be worth some real money, maybe even more than I paid for them.”

 

[Jambine]

I only buy playable sets for play. I've never thought of it as an investment. Yes, the longer you wait to buy, the more you will probably pay.
I've bought 4 custom sets over the years and I doubt any are worth much more than I paid.
I have two more sets I'm in the process of acquiring now. I don't expect to make a profit on those either

 

[Wils]

If I could afford the chips in the first place, AND was in a position to buy, AND was around when it started, I might be miffed at not being included in the "Stars" GB.

However, just being a part of this forum does not give anyone entitlement beyond what you'd get from any other forum. I'm entitled to log in to a forum and interact with other members of that forum for as long as we're members. Nothing more.

I look upon the GB as a private thing that just happened to be carried out by people who happen to be on the same forum (leaving aside all the "trust" issues, as to me I'll never be in a position to buy a "decent" set from anyone here, so whether I can trust people is irrelevant to me. I come here for the PRON and the banter).

I can see why those who are pissed are pissed, and I can see why those who kept it quiet kept it quiet.

 

[oONemoOo]

Risk to GB?
Not anymore a risk, it's a reality: the community is divided now and the gap is widening day after day.
I dont know what happened behind the scene but the way this whole story has been managed with absolute no transparency is Nothing good to keep the community united and friendly...

Impact on chipping? I really think that making a tribute set to the WSOP was the worst idea possible and I cant imagine there will be no impact either directly to the Group buy initiators (via GPI or WSOP) or even indirectly with PGI or gaming commission / regulations on chips to prevent this kind of initiative in the future.

Market change?
No major changes, Market is always fluctuating and adjusting itself
current market has not dropped down and there is no reason why the market should fall down in the future.

Does some of the GB Lucky fews manipulated at their advantage the market values / trends?
Yes definitely, probably a small number of people.
But Nothing special compared to the big operations from TCR/TCE, or even some well known PCFers and flippers using all methods to increase the value of some sets that they are willing to sell.

Anyway, I admire the efforts that have been put in place to make possible this kind of group buy, well done sirs. The sets are fantastic. I truly hope for you that there will not be bad consequences for you and that this will not be the end of the fantastic community that I joined 2 years ago.

 

[Ronoh]

Now, say I have a similar opportunity to buy 300K chips from GPI and I want to invite others to participate. Its still not possible to allow everyone to participate, so how do I decide?

Not only 300K chips spread out over x-number of people but that 300K represents five different sets and a few orders. Some have been getting hung up on that number of 300,000 thinking many guys are holding 5-10K chip sets of these chips which I’m sure isn’t the case for most of them. At an average of 60K chips per set the actual number of participants makes much more sense to those crunching the numbers of actual participants logically.

 

[timinater]

IDGI. Most any purchase can be looked at an investment.

...

For example, I recently purchased a vehicle for my farm property which cost me a significant amount of money, but which I am reasonably confident will retain much of its value for 10-15 years, if I maintain it properly. I can get more money back out of it than I paid, especially assuming I place a value on the use I get out of it in the meantime.

Both of my main sets (Paulson Starbursts, ASM/HCE H-molds) fit this description. If I die with them, I will have gotten my money’s worth in enjoyment. But I would certainly leave a note in their cases to my heirs to say: “Do not take these to the thrift store, or sell these at a tag sale! They may be worth some real money, maybe even more than I paid for them.”

Absolutely, any purchase can be looked at as an investment, but there is a difference between a farm implement used to haul grain or harvest or whatever and some collectible poker chips. That truck produces value. Dollars. An investment vehicle (pardon the pun, lol). Think of the truck as the share price, and the efficiency gained as the dividends for that investment.

You can certainly call buying material goods an investment, and if your enjoyment is your return, all the power to you. I just think you are arguing the edge case here when you define an investment as such, just like I can call a duck a rabbit, but it still has webbed feet, wings and quacks.

Most people you talk to you would consider an investment a thing (share) that they purchase (speculate on) with an expectation of regular profit (dividend) AND appreciation of the original purchase. A collectible delivers on one of those criteria...maybe.

We've totally gotten side-tracked

 

[Jambine]

Absolutely, any purchase can be looked at as an investment, but there is a difference between a farm implement used to haul grain or harvestor whatever and some collectible poker chips. That truck produces value. Dollars

........wait but, my chips do produce value. Dollars

 

[timinater]

........wait but, my chips do produce value. Dollars

Point taken . Mine do the same for me, haha!

Counterpoint: If the chips chips can create value, then they can also create losses to fund those gains, so kind cancels everything out, no?

 

[pedrofisk]

Collection market bubbles burst just like any other market. Antique widgets, real estate, baseball cards, Tickle Me Elmo or whatever. All are subject not only to the specific market demand but the economy overall. When the economy crashes so do collector markets. Not only do people have less cash for collectables but more inventory hits the market as collectors look to free up cash.

It's not cash until you sell it.

 

[ChipEnvy]

Chip sets are a shitty financial investment. If you go into it with the expectation to gain a positive ROI, you are foolish.

 

[Psypher1000]

more inventory hits the market

Including chips. Casinos tend not to do well during bad economies.

 

[Psypher1000]

that 300K represents five different sets

Six sets known to exist. Don't forget the Pacific Star. No idea how many was made for that one, though.

 

[joker80]

Finite chips- closed casino sets
Infinite chips- fantasy sets, customs

If you are doing this as an investment, seems like a no brainer

 

[Taghkanic]

Most people you talk to you would consider an investment a thing (share) that they purchase (speculate on) with an expectation of regular profit (dividend) AND appreciation of the original purchase. A collectible delivers on one of those criteria...maybe.

Can’t agree there. It’s hardly the case that every investment yields a regular profit or dividend.

Consider, for example, certain types of real estate. If you purchase a house to live in yourself, or a piece of land, with the expectation of eventually selling it, it actually *costs* you money while you are holding that investment. It may eventually prove profitable, but for a time it will likely be a drag on your bottom line (e.g. from property taxes, upkeep, mortgage expenses, opportunity cost of no longer having whatever money you put up front invested otherwise). But that lack of a dividend or income in the meantime doesn’t mean it cannot be good investment.

Meanwhile, many investments hold the prospect of *losing* you money after the initial purchase—a stock goes down, a commodity becomes devalued, etc.

Anyway, if you host a home game in which you are a winning player, you could look at those winnings as a profit generated in part from your chips! ;^)

 

[Taghkanic]

Chip sets are a shitty financial investment.

Depends, right? If you buy a chipset which is scarce and appealing, seems like there would be a decent chance of realizing a modest return. I think I could flip pretty much all of the chips I’ve bought in the past 18 months at a modest profit... Not a “shitty” investment, though hardly like buying a penny stock which rises 100x in value, obv.

That said, if you happen to stumble across a rare set at a yard sale or in a local Craiglist sale or some other out-of-the-way place, which is wildly underpriced because the seller does not know/care what they have, you certainly could make a nice profit. Problem being that it is not exactly a volume business...

The internet of course has made it more difficult to find bargains, because anyone can find out the value of anything. (A friend who is a dealer in 19th and early 20th century art is constantly bemoaning how the combination of online auction records and Antiques Roadshow has all but killed his ability to find great deals on old paintings for resale.)

Another analogy: When I was first out of school and needed decent suits for work, I hit upon a way to punch far above my weight, clothing-wise. I located a couple of thrift stores in the wealthiest section of the city where I lived, and found I could buy very expensive suits for almost nothing. Even when I had to get them tailored, I was getting suits for 10-15% of what they would have cost me otherwise. “Go where the bankers die,” I told friends when they asked... Maybe I should try this for chips! Got to be lots of rich guys who bought custom sets in the 70s and 80s whose widows have no interest in putting their chips up on eBay. But then, this was a long time ago, and now maybe estates don’t dump good stuff on thrift stores...

And yeah, I agree, the topic is spiraling away from the original post.

 

[liftapint]

Did someone say “buyer’s market”?

Heading to the classifieds...

 

[bentax1978]

Heading to the classifieds...

No one believes for one second that you're "heading" to the classifieds...


...well all know you never left

 

[bivey]

Along the lines of GB set size, my pic is an outlier. Most sets out there are modest. 600-1200 chips.

 

[Taghkanic]

Yes, the longer you wait to buy, the more you will probably pay. I've bought 4 custom sets over the years and I doubt any are worth much more than I paid.

Mmmm... Aren’t these two statements sort of at odds? For waiting to buy to mean you pay more, that means the price went up while you were waiting.

 

[Taghkanic]

Along the lines of GB set size, my pic is an outlier. Most sets out there are modest. 600-1200 chips.

I’m in the dark as to what instigated this debate. What thread am I missing?

 

[ChipEnvy]

Depends, right? If you buy a chipset which is scarce and appealing, seems like there would be a decent chance of realizing a modest return.

If you buy a scarce and appealing chip set, you are already paying top dollar. If the set is appealing to more people than you, and you end up with that set, you just took one of the prospective buyers out of the buying pool, and as a result you've decreased demand. So if by 'modest' you mean break even, consider yourself lucky.

I think I could flip pretty much all of the chips I’ve bought in the past 18 months at a modest profit... Not a “shitty” investment,

If this is true, you did a good job buying your chips. Generic chip prices don't tend to fluctuate very much and ASM/CPC chips tend to lose value over time. So if you found value along the way, that is great to see!

That said, if you happen to stumble across a rare set at a yard sale or in a local Craiglist sale or some other out-of-the-way place, which is wildly underpriced because the seller does not know/care what they have, you certainly could make a nice profit. Problem being that it is not exactly a volume business...

You are preaching to the choir, but what you are talking about is hard work. Fun work, but hard work. If you factor in the value of your time, this is also a negitive ROI venture.

Big picture, what I am getting at is that more people here will tell you they have sold more chips at a loss than at a profit. If you are getting into chips, get into it because you like poker and playing with high end toys. If one is getting into it for any other reason, they are going to be disappointed.

 

[Jambine]

Mmmm... Aren’t these two statements sort of at odds? For waiting to buy to mean you pay more, that means the price went up while you were waiting.

Yes, prices went up while I was waiting. Not sure if that applies to everyone, but it sure is true for any chips I want. :
Anyway, I don't speculate on chips. Everything I have is for keeps

Edit: I'm talking about sets, not single chips. I actually just sold a few singles and I think I made $0.80 profit !!

 

[Taghkanic]

... what you are talking about is hard work. Fun work, but hard work. If you factor in the value of your time, this is also a negitive ROI venture.

If I factor in the value of my time, pretty much everything has a negative ROI except that work for which I am under contract at my highest billable rate (being a freelancer primarily). By that metric I would never do anything else.

But I wasn’t suggesting anyone become a full-time intinerant yardsaler. I’m really talking about keeping my eyes open in places I normally frequent, or have other reasons to visit.

The “investment” issue for me boils down not to whether one could make a living just buying and flipping chips, but whether when I buy chips I get a reasonable price. So long as I can get close to what I paid—or better—if/when I decide to sell, I am essentially renting them something between a very low cost or a small profit, for however long I still enjoy them. As such, I have few hesitations about buying chips I think are nice. Someone else will always share that view, and I’ll find a buyer.