Pocket twos, last hand with deep stacks

DrStrange

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Playing 1-2 live, six handed. It is the last hand of the night after a seven hour session. There are big winners, big losers and one happy to be out of the mouse trap. The table is loose and moderately aggressive. The last hand could be explosive.

Cast of characters:

Everyone has hundreds or thousands of hours at the table together.

SB has $900. He is semi-loose, fit/fold post flop but tonight he is quite aggressive post flop with modest hands. Up maybe $500. Counting out his stacks.

BB has $1,300 almost entirely profit. Fully LAG, moderately profitable on average. Has been willing to lay down big draws tonight which is really out of character. Not impressed with position.

UTG has $1,200, mostly his buy-ins. Classic calling station, hyper loose and sticky.

MP is old man coffee with $200. He has had a difficult night bleeding hundred dollar bills. I'd count him a little tilty.

Hero is the cut-off with $700. Hero has been a little less selective tonight but he has shown down nothing but reasonable TAG hands when his cards are seen. In general the table feels Hero means business when he takes aggressive action.

Button is a crazy money spewing LAGtard with $400. I can't make a solid guess for how far down crazy is for the night - something in excess of $1,500.

Keep in mind that this is the last hand for the night. Ranges are going to be W I D E.

The hand.

UTG straddles for $12. MP calls $12. Action on Hero holding :2s: :2c:. Fold, call or raise? If raising, how much and why? (It would be a good assumption that a stiff raise would get more callers than might be expected.)

DrStrange
 

stocky

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Fold and walk away up. If you need to play it just flat, hero is basically set mining. There are going to be a lot more flops that hero is folding to than there will be benifitual to Heros hand.
 
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never folding, mostly calling. Raising bout 1/4 the time. Raising smallish hoping to prevent a big raise from the button, to build a big pot with a disguised hand when we do hit and to occasionally buy position. Also, we have a hand that should be easy to play post-flop.
 

MoscowRadio

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This is the last hand of the night. Those who are down are going to be looking to gamble. Sure we have a hand that will be easy to play post flop but that's only because we'll be folding this hand post-flop one out of every eight times we play it (approximately). You're probably never getting position with this crowd in this spot so I think that call>fold>raise.
 

Trihonda

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This is the last hand of the night. Those who are down are going to be looking to gamble. Sure we have a hand that will be easy to play post flop but that's only because we'll be folding this hand post-flop one out of every eight times we play it (approximately). You're probably never getting position with this crowd in this spot so I think that call>fold>raise.

This ^
 

MikesDad

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I'd like to play, but being the last hand of the night I'd strongly suspect a raise is coming behind.
If you want to play, fine; if you want to fold fine. fold = call > raise
 

grandgnu

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I'd be concerned about a raise behind us and throwing away $12. Then again, if we raise to say $30 and get a bunch of callers we may have just thrown away $30 instead. So I'll go with Moscow on this one:

Call > Fold > Raise
 

Ben

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Yuck. 6x straddle is making our life difficult here. Realistically, how likely is it that we're going to face a big raise from one of the "LAGs" if we limp? How about if we make it $30? Just being a LAGtard doesn't necessarily mean the specific type of LAGtard who will 3-bet 40% preflop. IME "last hand of the night" usually means LESS preflop action - lets all see a flop, THEN the action goes crazy...
 

grandgnu

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Just jam it. Quack quack.

Paul%20Magriel_.jpg
 

DrStrange

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*** Now what? ***

Hero considers making a blocking bet, but decides to limp. Everyone limps to BB (LAG, big winner for the night) who raises to $42 or $30 on top. Everyone leading to Hero calls. $162 in the pot with the action on Hero who owes $30. Button (crazy LAGtard) and SB (semi-loose/fit fold) will act after Hero.

Should Hero call, fold or raise? If raising, how much and why? (a big raise by Hero will to widely interpreted by the table as AA/KK/QQ/AK but that doesn't mean they would fold.)

DrStrange
 
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Calling here. Only reason I can think of to raise would be to represent one of the hands and the flop is low cards and hits you will get paid off.
 

guinness

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I think fold is a better decision but I'm calling because as a lag I'm saddened that its the last hand but optimistic I bink a flop.
 

trever

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I suppose it isn't too late to duck out, but if you had planned on folding preflop, you pretty much missed your chance the first time around.
Call.

Here's to hoping that this thread isn't a set/set cooler story.
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Heh duck out. I would be remiss if I didn't ingeminate: "Jam". Jelly. Damson Preserves. Polaner All Fruit. You have to have faith in yourself, and your cards. As the great Bill Raftery would say, "Ooooh, send it in, Jerome!"
 

DrStrange

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I try very hard not to post bad beat hand. I found several difficult spots in this hand, as will several villains. I have doubts about Hero's line as well.

DrStrange
 

jbutler

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is it common for BTN or SB to backraise in a spot like this out of spite against the guy who made it $42 to go? i have a couple guys in my game who will just get bitter when someone raises after they limp and will try to "punish" them by putting in a ton of money pre. if these guys could fall into that category, it's a fold. otherwise, it's a pretty clear call imo.

a big raise by Hero will to widely interpreted by the table as AA/KK/QQ/AK but that doesn't mean they would fold.

this is great. it reminds me of david grey on HSP years ago, complaining that someone had called and cracked his hand (they were playing NLHE, but he was talking about stud high here): "i've been raising with an ace or a king up for 30 years in this town and they still call me! they can never be ahead, but they always win!"

now i'm going to have to go find that episode tonight.

EDIT: nm i was mixing up his ranting on HSP with the quote from him that Barry G put in Ace on the River:

"for twenty-five years when i have raised with a big up-card in stud, i have invariably had a big pair. but they always think i don't have it this time and they call me and chase me to the river and draw out on me. so it doesn't really matter if i tell them i have it again."
 

grandgnu

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I view the raise there as a

"last hand of the night pot sweetener"

The guy is trying to build a large pot to get back to even or make a profit
 

MoscowRadio

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You're getting better than 5:1 on a call here and the odds you're going to be getting after those behind you call will be better than 7:1. I'm not entirely crazy about it, despite the immediate odds, but math dictates you should call here.

Is it a coincidence that you'll surely be getting better than 7:1 calling and your odds of hitting a set are one in every eight hands? :confused:

Last second thought: BB is the one who put in the raise and he's up huge tonight. I wouldn't discount the idea of him having a hand in this spot, but I still say it's a call.

I think these might just be my favorite threads on PCF. I'm glad the good doctor is here.
 

DrStrange

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*** On to the flop ***

Hero calls. Button and SB call. It is a family $42 - six way action, $252 in the pot.

Flop is :kh: :2h: :8h:

Three checks to Old Man Coffee who bets $45 (he started the hand with $200, paid $42 preflop and has $113 left after his flop bet).

Action on Hero. Fold, call or raise? If raising how much? (Hero has $658 left behind and is covered by three of the five villains.)

DrStrange

- - - - - - - - - Updated - - - - - - - - -

So far I haven't seen much comment on the RIO risks to small pocket pairs. On this flop reverse implied odds are fully on display. I would like people's thoughts on how the RIO risk should color hero choices.
 
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slisk250

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For me this is a hard one. I would probably call and watch carefully as OMC reeks of value. That flush draw or made hand is not making me like my hand so much here.
 

DrStrange

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Does Hero even care about Old Man Coffee? If OMC showed hero the nut flush, hero would be happy to play for stacks just on the value of his redraw. $252 pot plus $158 from OMC plus $158 from hero is $568. Hero has ~35% equity vs a flush or $199. Paying $158 to win an expected $199 is +$41 EV.

Fear is reserved for the players wielding big stacks . . .

DrStrange
 

xt!

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I like how you played it to here, fully depending on 3bet likelihood from your first limp (I would have raised due to my usual table image, but limp is probably good for yours) I am not folding a set in the last hand of one of the games you describe for less than a couple grand unless the board is 2tjqssss on the turn. I make it about 300 here, expect naked ace and king, maybe even queen to come along. Shove any turn. (You should have more than enough equity against all calling ranges) you will get looked up by the random tiny flushes, but your equity in the hand makes up for that. But I love action and don't mind variance in smaller fames.
 

Leonard

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Your SPR is less than 3. You have bottom set on a monochrome board. Just shove now and get it over with. If someone has a flush, you have outs. If someone has a higher set, then you are out of luck, like always when you lose set over set.

You play cautiously here when the pot is $30 and your SPR is 25. Not here.

BTW..........expect some variance.

L
 
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