PLO8 Tourney right at the bubble (1 Viewer)

[Burke]

Story: OK story time first, if you want to skip to the poker go to the paragraph marked poker (heads up, it is probably not a great strategy hand.) I am a 4th year medical student currently interviewing for residency positions starting in July 2017. I had an interview in Charlotte, NC on Tuesday and I have one in Charleston, SC on Friday. I have a buddy who teaches high school in Asheville, NC so instead of driving back up to Hampton Roads, VA I decided to stay with him for a few days. He knows that I like poker and suggested that I check out the nearby casino, Harrah's Cherokee, while he had to work. I checked out the website and saw that the WSOP is in town this week and that they were offering a PLO8 tourney for $250. I circled that on my schedule as a possibility...

The problem with being a medical student is that I am in debt up to my fucking eyeballs. It is really fiscally irresponsible for me to go play poker. I also should probably stay away from poker chips.....yeah right. So because I am a shameless human being I asked my friends if they would stake me and I'd give them all the profit. A sampling of the conversations are listed below:

- Q: "How many WSOP tournaments have you played/cashed in?" A: "0 and 0."
- "I might as well go burn a few hundred dollar bills."
- "I'd rather put $250 on Tom Brady as POTUS in 2020."

We play low-stakes, kitchen poker often. I can count the amount of times that I have played live on one hand and I have played a few live tournaments. FWIW, I'm up in casino play albeit minimally and have cashed in 2/3 of the tournaments. They are nice, supportive guys though and some pitched in to stake me.

Poker: We are deep in a PLO8 tourney with unlimited rebuys. Rebuy period was over at this point but it was available for way too long imo. 131 total entries 16 players remain and 15 cash. 15th place pays $442 and 1st place pays around $8K. I would guess that I am in 12th overall - average stack is around 40K. We are playing hand by hand (alternating tables) until we are in the money. Blinds are 1K/2K. Seating was just reshuffled when 2 tables were reached less than 1 orbit ago. Hero had considered going to grab food to bring back to the table because he hadn't eaten anything in 12 hours and blinds were coming up anyway....he could get back by the time the button came because it was going slowly with alternating hands.

Cast of relevant characters:
- Hero in the SB with 23K. He is an obvious noob to live casino poker. He generally will wait for strong cards in late position if possible, but only has hand history with one villain (middle position) at the table - and this was minimal and early in the tournament. MP had seen hero pushed off of a couple BBs.
- Villain 1 is in the BB sitting on 65K. He and hero have no hand history. This is the 6th? hand where they have been at the same table. I have seen him raise once pre-flop and then fold post-flop to a large bet. He told the table that he has re-bought 4 times in this tourney and needs to get a certain position just to get his money back.
- Villain 2 is UTG. She is not in this hand, but she has 4K in chips in front of her.
- Villain 3 is in middle position sitting on 25-30K (just more than hero). He is a solid, TAGish player, but does not seem to change his range much whether he was in early or late position.

The Hand:
Pre flop: UTG and UTG+1 fold to MP. He raises to 5K. Everyone else folds to hero. Hero looks down at KsKh3s3h. Action?

*Edit to add Villain 1's stack

 

[Forty4]

Not a lot of experience in O but I'm thinking fold. You're hand really doesn't play many different ways as you really are looking to make trips or the flush with the A on the board otherwise you're looking at a hand that will often be second best. Add the fact that UTG will be in for half her chips next hand and if she doesn't stick it in the following hand she will be cut in half again or all in.
If you have to call tread lightly.

 

[DrStrange]

Fold.

Based on Hero's sidebar notes, making the money means a lot more to Hero than normal. Right now hero gets to watch and see what happens for six more hands before putting a single chip in the pot. Let's see if Hero can cash before taking on the risk of getting knocked out. We see that there is a villain with 4K in chips about the enter the blinds. Such a player is very likely to go all in the next hand and risk being busted on basically a blind hand.

Note that I would offer this advice to Hero before looking at his cards. Hero could hold an O8 monster and still properly fold. There is a time and place to exploit the bubble, but not today.
Patience is your friend.

That being said double suited KK33 is not such a good hand for risking your stack playing O8. Hero can not make a low. That means that hero is often getting freerolled by a villain with any made low hoping to bust Hero's hand. Hero makes a set on the flop about one time in four - a fine hand for hold'em but more fragile than might be expected in Omaha. If hero misses the set, he is hoping a pair of kings hold up for the high and also hoping he gets paid for taking the risk since he could squeak out the high only to chop to a low hand.

Just go get something to eat and keep out of trouble -=- DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Fold. KK33 looks way better than it is, even double suited. There is so much variance in PLO and shorty is about to be virtually all-in in the next couple of hands. Wait till you hit the money then go crazy.

 

[moose]

No way to go broke faster playing Omaha than making bottom set. Especially considering flopping bottom set means a low draw is possible.

 

[Rhodeman77]

As everyone has said, FOLD!

Your hand is so vulnerable, if an A hit it kills you both ways. You can't make a low at all, and if the board comes high only you can't make a straight that will be possible.

You best case is to flop a set of K and make a boat, hard to do and it won't make you any chips most times to be worth the risk.

Find a better spot.

 

[thorwilliam]

Agree with the rest. Fold.

 

[courage]

Agree, fold. You don't have a 2-way hand and are at best going to be playing for half the pot if a low comes. Even to try to scoop the high and hit a favorable flop is costing too much of your stack pf.

 

[Marius L]

Fold. Kk33 is not really good in o8 because you don't have any lows. Can't really call with your stack size either.

What about getting to this spot after the bubble though, would it change heros decision if he were itm? I think I could fold this right after the bubble also, unless you believe the original raiser would consider folding to your push (doubtful to me). I would be more OK with gambling here though.

 

[Dr. Neau]

Fold. That's not that great of a hand.

 

[detroitdad]

Fold, horrible PLO8 hand.

 

[Burke]

I called, and this was my *faulty* rationale. I should change the title to "Poker Learning" because that is what I am trying to do. This would be a boring strategy hand if I correctly folded....

1) Tournament risk/reward

Based on Hero's sidebar notes, making the money means a lot more to Hero than normal.

This would normally be very true of how I often play the game for better or worse. For this tournament however, I was free-rolled and I was not winning any of the profit - I was able to enter the tournament purely for fun - which it really was. I'd rather go deep than a min cash at this point in time.

Note that I would offer this advice to Hero before looking at his cards. Hero could hold an O8 monster and still properly fold. There is a time and place to exploit the bubble, but not today.

I'm interested in this comment particularly. Would you really have folded something like AsAh2sKh?

2) Making the money
I still preferred to cash over walking away with nothing (obviously).

Add the fact that UTG will be in for half her chips next hand and if she doesn't stick it in the following hand she will be cut in half again or all in.

...shorty is about to be virtually all-in in the next couple of hands. Wait till you hit the money then go crazy.

So my thinking here was that if I call I still have 18K in front of me after a call and I can easily fold to a bet unless I absolutely crush the flop. I would still have 4x as much as the short-stack and she will still be basically all-in on the next two hands.

3) Bubble play

There is a time and place to exploit the bubble, but not today.

I thought that the BB would call behind. No real read here, but I think the guy might do this poker-playing thing quite often and he would understand his spot very well. He would have hero and MP covered and would be in a good position to attempt to steal the pot depending on the flop texture. I was thinking about having a sizable stack to approach the final table. My thinking was stupid, dangerous thinking.

General Comments

Your hand is so vulnerable, if an A hit it kills you both ways.

Originally I was thinking that an Ace in the correct suit would be a nice card if there is at least another one to match it. Thinking more about the hand AA2x is in the range of MP and I wouldn't be able to call a pot bet unless an A with 2 other suited cards gave me a nut flush.

What about getting to this spot after the bubble though, would it change heros decision if he were itm? I think I could fold this right after the bubble also, unless you believe the original raiser would consider folding to your push (doubtful to me).

I agree that the original raiser in middle position is not folding to a raise. As weird it is, my position on the bubble relative to the short stack UTG made me more willing to flat pre-flop. I think I would have been less likely to call this in the SB if I were already in the money.

 

[Dr. Neau]

That's the tough thing about Omaha *. When there are 8 players at the table, 32 of the 52 cards have been dealt. Odds are very high that one or both of your required aces are in the hands of others.

Regardless, what happen next?

 

[Burke]

I call and BB calls behind.

To rehash the situation: Pot is 15K and I have 18K behind. I'm first to act. Villain 1 to my immediate left has 60K and Villain 2 (original raiser) in position has 20K. We are on the bubble and the next BB is super short-stacked. I hold KsKh3s3h

Flop: Qh3dQd

Action?

 

[Dr. Neau]

Honestly, at this point I'd either check or push.

 

[Rhodeman77]

bet pot and hope to hold up against a Q with 9 outs to beat you.

 

[Marius L]

Great flop for us obv. I don't think we are ever not getting it in with this pot size and stack size. The question is if we check or just jam it in first to act. I think I would just jam and be happy to pick up a relatively big pot if both villains fold. We will probably get called by queens and be in a good spot sometimes too. I don't wanna let them freeroll a better full house with hands that are most likely checking back and folding later streets anyways. I don't think the preflop aggressor can afford to c-bet bluff here without a queen. I would be more inclined to check if we were heads up.

 

[Dr. Neau]

Danger of checking here is that it's checked around and someone who MAY have folded gets a free card and now has a reason to stick around to the river.

Pot

 

[bergs]

I fold here and wait for a 2-way hand. I have zero problem going busto on the bubble (we play the tournament to win - if we wanted to make money we'd play cash) but when I stick it in I want a two way hand.

As played, you must either pot here and hope everyone folds, or open fold now and run around the table slapping yourself in the hand and screaming about everyone checking their privilege (and then sit down quietly like nothing happened with a shrug and a "What?")

 

[Rhodeman77]

Danger of checking here is that it's checked around and someone who MAY have folded gets a free card and now has a reason to stick around to the river.

Pot

Exactly, the main reason to lead out is to stop it from checking around and letting a free card come off that could give someone a low draw that you would have to possibly chop with. Also any card other than a K or 3 makes a bigger full house possible that beats you. I would especially hate to check and see an A come off.

 

[Dr. Neau]

Yes, I keep forgetting this is PLO8. That makes a pot bet here mandatory. There's a 62% chance that the turn is a new low card. You need to squash anyone from seeing it for free/cheap.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Fold preflop. KK33 is not a good hand in O8, unless you're playing stacks deep enough to get tons of action with kings full. Every other feature of the hand, you're setting yourself up to catch something second-best.

On the flop, potting all but guarantees you'll only get action when you're up against at least a queen—which may have you dead or has up to 9 outs twice.

If you check, however, the preflop raiser may c-bet much lighter holdings than a queen, and then you can check-raise all-in. So that's one way you could get action here even when you're way ahead.

This flop is a great example of why KK33 is a bad hand. The 33 hurts more than helps. When it hits, the set it makes is too small and puts a low card on board, and anything short of quads will always be very vulnerable. When it misses, now half of your hand is dead weight (with suits as backup in this case, but they may turn out to be useless too).

 

[JoseRijo]

I wasn't going to reply because I thought this was the easiest flop pot ever. Jim made a thoughtful case for checking, so I'll modify my stance.

This is one of the easiest flop pots ever.

 

[Dr. Neau]

For the record, I found the O8 section in SS2 invaluable.

 

[Dr. Neau]

If you check, however, the preflop raiser may c-bet much lighter holdings than a queen, and then you can check-raise all-in. So that's one way you could get action here even when you're way ahead.

Honestly, at this point in the hand (assuming it's me), I'm not looking for action. I want to shut the hand down NOW.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Honestly, at this point in the hand (assuming it's me), I'm not looking for action. I want to shut the hand down NOW.

There are certain spots where you can choose to make a big bet because you want to price out draws and just take down the pot. Those are cases when it's a reasonable goal to "shut the hand down NOW." This is not one of those cases.

There's exactly one draw you're worried about coming along—bare queen with overcards—and that hand is calling your piddling 18K all day. You're also getting action from the nightmare scenario Q3 or QQ, where you're drawing to a 2-outer or runner-runner In any of these cases, you're getting action whether you like it or not.

In almost all other cases, you're an astronomical favorite, and very few of those hands are likely to call when you pot the flop. Yes, you'll take down the pot right now, but you're almost a lock already anyway. If you check, some of those enormous underdogs may get added to the hands that play you for stacks, since MP raised preflop, and any reasonable c-bet gets almost all the chips in.

 

[Rhodeman77]

There are certain spots where you can choose to make a big bet because you want to price out draws and just take down the pot. Those are cases when it's a reasonable goal to "shut the hand down NOW." This is not one of those cases.

There's exactly one draw you're worried about coming along—bare queen with overcards—and that hand is calling your piddling 18K all day. You're also getting action from the nightmare scenario Q3 or QQ, where you're drawing to a 2-outer or runner-runner In any of these cases, you're getting action whether you like it or not.

In almost all other cases, you're an astronomical favorite, and very few of those hands are likely to call when you pot the flop. Yes, you'll take down the pot right now, but you're almost a lock already anyway. If you check, some of those enormous underdogs may get added to the hands that play you for stacks, since MP raised preflop, and any reasonable c-bet gets almost all the chips in.

But it is HI/LOW!!!! Why take a chance that a free card will come off to put a low draw out there that could cost you half the pot if it comes in?

I would much rather win the WHOLE pot now than have to fight off a low draw that will chop with me because I gave them a free card on the flop.

 

[onerand]

I wasn't going to reply because I thought this was the easiest flop pot ever. Jim made a thoughtful case for checking, so I'll modify my stance.

This is one of the easiest flop pots ever.

Win

 

[Dr. Neau]

And it ain't just the low cards. I'm assuming each of the players who called probably has a pair higher than 3's. I don't want them filling up.

 

[Rhodeman77]

And it ain't just the low cards. I'm assuming each of the players who called probably has a pair higher than 3's. I don't want them filling up.

Yea, we have exactly 3 safe cards in the deck. 2 KIngs and the case 3.

Anything else can make a bigger full house possible and/or bring a low draw.

Do you really want to give a hand like AA24 a free chance to beat us?