PLO cash game—top 2 on the flop (1 Viewer)

[Rhodeman77]

Playing $1/2 PLO at a new game for me. It is a weekly game that has been running for a few months at a private club.

General read in the game/players is that the vast majority of them are loose passive. Calling very loose preflop and on the flop. Chasing any draw if they think they can win a big one.

Very few 3 bets preflop and when they do happen it is almost always AAxx. There are maybe 1-2 players that are slightly better than the above description.

Hero is in the HIgh Jack with QJ98 one suite.


There was a raise to $5 from early position, we call, Button calls as well as the blinds.

5 people to the flop, pot is $25

Flop comes J 8 6 rainbow

SB bets $25, BB folds, the early position preflop bettor calls the $25.

Action is on Hero.

We have a stack of $600. The preflop raiser covers us and the rest of the players have about the same stack size as Hero.

The big stack is the only player I consider to be slightly better than the rest. The button is pretty much a super nit OMC. SB I consider one the average players for this game, loose passive.

So what do we do with top 2 pair and a gut shot and no back door flush draw.

 

[Moxie Mike]

SB probably has a set or a pair/(partial) wrap straight draw combo. Given your description, it's hard to see the pattern of betting into 4 opponents after a PFR from a solid player a different way. Unless he's a holdem player sitting in an PLO game and grossly overvaluing KKxx here

PF raiser's flat on this flop suggests to me that he probably has some combo of a fistful of broadway cards with a backdoor nut flush draw and/or an overpair to the flop. His hand can't take a lot of pressure but has at least some perceived equity, so he flats to see 1) what the rest of the table does with this flop; and 2) if the turn card improves his hand.

While raising is worth a brief consideration, I would flat call here hoping the button folds thus closing the action. This is a spot where controlling the size of the pot is appropriate and the prospect of facing a big 4-bet puts the Hero in an awkward spot. Unless the Hero has some pretty specific reads that the SB will fold to aggression in a scenario like this, I think a conservative approach is best in this spot.

The question not addressed in the OP is this: what's the plan for the turn if Hero doesn't improve and is facing a $100 bet? What if the turn is a blank like an offsuit 3? What if a king or an ace hits the board?

 

[DrStrange]

Preflop is fine. Hero's hand holds a lot of potential. In a deeper game, Hero might even consider a preflop raise.

On the flop, I think this is a close fold. Fold =/> call > raise. I could be sold on calling as it is close.

Hero surely doesn't want to raise for value. If Hero is raising, it is a bluff. If hero's prospective raise is called, Hero is likely way behind. If hero gets reraised then it is a snap fold. Top two pair is worse than useless vs top set and a two out draw vs middle set. Hero's gut shot draw is easily dominated by wraps, especially those with back door draws.

Calling is tempting. Problem is Hero is drawing with a "silver medal" hand when he hits the turn. There are times when top two is good - this might be one of them. If Hero has hope that the SB will give a free river, then calling seems more attractive. Also if SB could be over valuing an over pair - thinking like a hold'em player.

Hero isn't getting the right direct price to call even if all eight of his outs are clean. What if someone holds a wrap? Hero's gut shot is drawing to a chop without a redraw to a flush or better straight. What if someone holds top set? Hero is drawing to a 4-out gut shot which could be chopping and then has to fade a redraw.

For me, calling is unwise. Hero will have ample opportunity to play hands where he had much bigger draws / bigger made hands. Let's not get into the swamp if we don't have to. hero just doesn't have enough of this flop to proceed.

DrStrange

PS I would not want to reconsider if Hero ends up holding the winning hands with top two pair. I know Hero has equity with his hand, just not enough for a fight. Hero's preflop holding was good. But the flop wasn't quite what was needed to make this a "go to war" type of hand.

 

[mipevi]

Call.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Any other thoughts on the what we should be here before we move on?

 

[DarPodo]

Fold. Dr Strange explained the reasons better than I ever could.

 

[trever]

When a loose-passive guy in the SB pots into four players, you've got to give him credit for something; but it depends on what you mean by passive? I'd expect a passive player to check his draws to the preflop raiser, but maybe these guys are betting solid draws too?
If the initial bettor had been the preflop raiser, I'd say to go ahead and put in a raise. Against the SB? Thread would be boring if we fold now, so call.

 

[Highli99]

Thread would be boring if we fold now, so call.

Very true, although if only interesting spots pop up the greater strategy of a game can get lost. Kinda how ESPN edited poker coverage will make you think every hand is a cooler or giant bluff.

 

[Rhodeman77]

This wouldn’t be much a fun strategy thread if we made the right fold!!

Hero is concerned about a possible set from the SB, but since we block top and middle set, they are both less likely, but still very possible. We have run top 2 into top set many times over the years.

The call by the PFR feels like a float with broadway cards that needed the J for a wrap draw. If he has a wrap I would expect a raise from him, he has been more aggressive than most of the other players.

The BB being an OMC to the extreme I’m not very worried about overall.

SB— has been weak passive. I think he is a Hold’em player trying PLO. So he could be overplaying a hand like KKxx or he could have bottom set or better. He paid me off once earlier with top and bottom pair on the flop when I bet my wrap on the flop and turned it.

I’m worried that if I just call and do fill up I could lose a lot if he does have top set, but I also think I can get him to fold bottom set. I have a tight image and my bets/raises have been with very strong hands.

I feel if I just call there are so few good cards for my hand and I will have no idea where I am on most turns.

I decide to go with a raise to $100 planning on folding if SB jams.

To my utter surprise OMC on the Button tanks for about a minute and makes the call (WTF!!)

SB also goes into the tank for a while and also calls. PFR looking at a huge pot and closing the action makes the easy call for the additional $75.

Turn is another 6.

Board is now J866 with two diamonds.

SB and PFR check to Hero.

Pot is $425

We have about $500 behind, what do we do?

 

[Highli99]

Check!

 

[jja412]

Check / fold...unless you improve on the river you shouldn't put another chip in the pot. OMC has you beat way too often. He may have quads.

 

[honkydevil]

Gross

Too multiway to continue with aggression. Beat by any 6 and the holdem player with KK now beats you.

Reading the flop post I was going to say you cant raise, you don't have enough draws, you NEED a brick on the turn to feel better about your hand.

 

[trever]

Well, the good news is that you don't have to worry about value betting anymore.

The bad news is that you do have a tempting bluff opportunity. The second 6 just killed everyone's drawing hands, particularly since you raised the flop. The only question is, did OMC/SB call you with a lower 2-pair or bottom/mid set and just make their hand.

Since it's your money, I vote you pot it.

 

[Highli99]

Well, the good news is that you don't have to worry about value betting anymore.

The bad news is that you do have a tempting bluff opportunity. The second 6 just killed everyone's drawing hands, particularly since you raised the flop. The only question is, did OMC/SB call you with a lower 2-pair or bottom/mid set and just make their hand.

Since it's your money, I vote you pot it.

I'm putting OMC on a 6 dangler.

 

[DrStrange]

There isn't a better card for "bluffing". Not advocating a bluff/jam, just noting the situation. This assumes no villain hold a full house, which in a multi-way pot is hard to assume. And if we assume no one holds a full house, then hero is sort of value betting while hoping over pairs and trips fold.

If Hero were heads-up, I would be proposing a bluff as there are far more wrap type hands than sets or two pair hands. The better the table, the more I would want to finish Hero's story he started on the flop. But there are three villains not one. It is possible they all hold wrap draws but I think it more likely someone holds a set or even two pairs that is now a boat.

Last nail in the coffin - - someone holding an over pair might actually call, Most of the time, Hero is begging for this type of sucker call. But not here.

I vote check. I can respect the effort to jam it in, I just fear it is misguided more often than not.

 

[Frogzilla]

I hate bluffing into 3 other players but man do we have the blockers to do it. We have very little showdown value right now also. This is a perfect hand to bluff.

I probably check and feel ashamed

 

[Rhodeman77]

Well, the good news is that you don't have to worry about value betting anymore.

The bad news is that you do have a tempting bluff opportunity. The second 6 just killed everyone's drawing hands, particularly since you raised the flop. The only question is, did OMC/SB call you with a lower 2-pair or bottom/mid set and just make their hand.

Since it's your money, I vote you pot it.

We are repping top or at least middle set on the flop with our raise. Now that we turn our perceived full house would we bet full pot with Jacks full? Why would we want to chase the wrap and flush draws that would be drawing dead?

How much would you bet with top full house here?

 

[jja412]

...How much would you bet with top full house here?

About 1/2 pot.

 

[DrStrange]

Is hero thinking these villains are second level or deeper thinking type folks?

 

[Rhodeman77]

Is hero thinking these villains are second level or deeper thinking type folks?

I think most of them are level 1 to level 2 at the most. They are looking at their hand and want hands are possible on the board at any given time.

If a flush is possible and they don’t have it they shut down. If a full house is possible and they don’t have it they shut down.

They will call on the river a small bet with weaker hands if there wasn’t flop and or turn bets. But for the most part if someone is repping a hand they can’t beat they believe it.

 

[trever]

If stacks were deeper, or if I actually wanted someone to call, I might want to bet 200 to look like I'm trying to pull folks along with me.
Given that my SPR is 1 and I really want everyone to fold, I'm happy to gii right now.

You repped a hand. You hit the card that your repped hand wanted. Now's the time to whack everyone over the head with it.

 

[mipevi]

Check.

 

[DrStrange]

Let's consider Hero's options and how the villains might react.

1. Hero bets $200 vs tough, sophisticated villains. This is how someone with a full house tries to milk the weaker players. Pay $200 to draw and then pay off another $200 if they hit. Villains are so sophisticated that they fold to $200 but might call a "fishy" shove.

1a. Hero could bet $200 or all-in and the villains fold fearing a full house.

In both cases Hero is better off betting $200.

2. Hero bets all-in vs. hold'em players or weak Omaha players hoping to fold their draws made hands. Half pot $200 isn't enough - only a full pot sized jam can hope to fold out the field.

3. Hero makes a $200 blocking bet vs OMC aiming for a cheap showdown if OMC calls. a really fancy play vs an unknown.

Let's keep in mind why a Hero holding over full bets half pot. It is a sucker bet hoping to seduce someone into drawing "cheaply" and then stacking them on a "good" river. But here Hero wants folds, not calls so why bet half pot?.

It is a misguided fancy play to bet half pot in hopes the villains are sophisticated enough to fear the small bet. There are three villains. That alone should warn hero that these people aren't the right target for the play.

Also, Hero already is wondering what OMC holds. What would Hero do, holding the button and the nut or second nut full house when someone bets into him? Check it down with second set and wait till the river to spring a trap with the best full house.

Check > jam > 1/2 pot bluff -=- DrStrange

PS and what is hero's river plan if he bets $200? give up or hope to fold two pair / trip hands with a 1/4 pot bet?

 

[jja412]

Let's consider Hero's options and how the villains might react.

1. Hero bets $200 vs tough, sophisticated villains. This is how someone with a full house tries to milk the weaker players. Pay $200 to draw and then pay off another $200 if they hit. Villains are so sophisticated that they fold to $200 but might call a "fishy" shove.

1a. Hero could bet $200 or all-in and the villains fold fearing a full house.

In both cases Hero is better off betting $200.

2. Hero bets all-in vs. hold'em players or weak Omaha players hoping to fold their draws made hands. Half pot $200 isn't enough - only a full pot sized jam can hope to fold out the field.

3. Hero makes a $200 blocking bet vs OMC aiming for a cheap showdown if OMC calls. a really fancy play vs an unknown.

Let's keep in mind why a Hero holding over full bets half pot. It is a sucker bet hoping to seduce someone into drawing "cheaply" and then stacking them on a "good" river. But here Hero wants folds, not calls so why bet half pot?.

It is a misguided fancy play to bet half pot in hopes the villains are sophisticated enough to fear the small bet. There are three villains. That alone should warn hero that these people aren't the right target for the play.

Also, Hero already is wondering what OMC holds. What would Hero do, holding the button and the nut or second nut full house when someone bets into him? Check it down with second set and wait till the river to spring a trap with the best full house.

Check > jam > 1/2 pot bluff -=- DrStrange

PS and what is hero's river plan if he bets $200? give up or hope to fold two pair / trip hands with a 1/4 pot bet?

For clarification...I would not bet half pot with our holdings. Only if I'm holding the overfull, or trying to set up a river bluff vs 1 opponent. Versus three I don't think the bluff is getting through.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Results:

Hero feels his showdown value is right next to zero at this point even with a river blank.

I felt that if OMC or SB had top set they would have raised on the flop for sure since they could have gotten their stacks in and maximize their fold equity. So that leave only 66xx for quads that Hero has to worry about. Bottom set doesn’t really fit OMC. I have already seen him fold top full house when he bet $40 on the river to a $110 check raise and was shown quad 3’s. He figured correctly that nobody is raising him so small without the absolute nuts.

So I’m really only worried about SB having quads which would fit his flop lead and hesitant call of the raise. But that is only 1 possible hand of many he could have here that he can fold.

So I decide to get a little extra fancy and bet $150 making it look like I’m begging for a call with my full house.

OMC snap folds, SB thinks for about 10-15 seconds and folds. The PFR thinks for a while, a long while then folds as well.

One of the players that I had played against last week until 5am immediately says he had Jacks full 100%!!! The PFR who was sitting directly next to him said pretty quietly or J8.

He then starts going on how any card 9 or higher or a heart and he would have called any amount.

SB and OMC didn’t give any kind of indication of what they had. Guessing a complete wrap for OMC with a back door flush draw.

I of course say that I had Jacks full

If anyone would have called or raised me I would have not put another dollar into the pot, unless a miracle J came on the river of course lol.

 

[JustinInMN]

Given that my SPR is 1 and I really want everyone to fold, I'm happy to gii right now.

Problem is this opens you up to a sizing tell.

I think if @Rhodeman77 wants to have a bluffing strategy in this situation, this sort of hand makes sense. So many blockers, there are really only 3 combos of unfoldable hands out there since he blocks the top two sets, and the flop action doesn't seem to show they are out there. Even planning to check the river isn't a bad play. There is the chance jacks up is good against anyone going for a cheap draw that bricks. If someone has the flush draw and overpair and gets sticky, that would be bad. But that's really all I can list as problematic here.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is playing in a $1/$2 casino game. And it is a venue / game new to him. There is little or no need to make sub optimal choices for meta-game or game theory optimal play. Go 100% exploitive - betting tells are a problem mostly in on-going games not in a game like this one.

By the way. Stack-to-pot-Ratio (SPR) is determined on the flop, based on the pot size before anyone bets. The decision criteria from the flop influence the rest of the hand - for example, in some cases pot commitment is determined as soon as the flop hits the felt.

SPR doesn't readily apply to Omaha. No doubt some work has been done to develop a detailed comparable theory for PLO but I have not seen anything that I would rely upon. I do think the overall concepts of deep stack situation vs shallow stack situations should be considered [ EG AAxx unimproved post flop might jam with very shallow stacks but should check fold with deeper stacks ].

Grats to Hero on winning a hard fought pot -=- DrStrange

 

[JustinInMN]

True, I was going to add the rejoinder there is an argument sizing tells may not matter against unobservant opponents.

But still even opponents unaware of balance, may consider pot bets to be bluffy and smaller bets to look valuey. So the smaller sizing may be the best play from both an exploitive or an GTO perspective.

 

[Rhodeman77]

When the flop first came out out my initial gut instinct was to fold because of how few turn cards there were for my hand and how unlikely I felt it was that I would take it down on the flop. I realistically thought I would be heads up going into the turn with the PFR most likely.

Part of the reason I took this line was to find out how sticky these guys really are and how well I am reading most of them. 6 of the 8 players were the same guys from last weeks game and I plan on playing there as often as I can on Friday’s if this is the regular line-up.

The fact that all 3 of them were willing to fold to such a small bet on the turn because of their fear of the perceived full house means I will be able to exploit them a lot going forward.

Until they start calling me down with some weaker holdings I’m going to keep pushing them out of pots.

Later in the night I had a similar flop with top two pair on a less straight connected but 2 club board. I had the bare Ac and doubled barreled that flop and turn and opponents folded their draws as well with the last one asking if I had nut clubs with my set. So I flashed him the Ac to reinforce I’m betting monsters!

 

[trever]

[QUOTE="DrStrange, post: 734495, member: 574"

By the way. Stack-to-pot-Ratio (SPR) is determined on the flop, based on the pot size before anyone bets. The decision criteria from the flop influence the rest of the hand - for example, in some cases pot commitment is determined as soon as the flop hits the felt.

SPR doesn't readily apply to Omaha. No doubt some work has been done to develop a detailed comparable theory for PLO but I have not seen anything that I would rely upon. I do think the overall concepts of deep stack situation vs shallow stack situations should be considered [ EG AAxx unimproved post flop might jam with very shallow stacks but should check fold with deeper stacks ].

Grats to Hero on winning a hard fought pot -=- DrStrange
[/QUOTE]

I probably misused the term "SPR" but it is easier to type "SPR of one" than to type "you have just one pot sized bet left in your stack right now, so if you're going to bet, you might as well bet it all". And of course, stack sizes relative to the pot are critically important in Omaha