Play the hand with me. (1 Viewer)

[Jonesey07]

This is a hand from my Vegas trip that I still cannot get over.

3 players that matter.

Hero - sitting at just north of $300 on a $270 buy-in.
Villain #1 - just sat down a few hands earlier, no knowledge of play style. Stack is roughly $300.
Villain #2 - been a pretty loose player, has re-bought once since hero sat down, stack is bit higher than $300.

Hero is UTG+1 on a 7 handed table, gets dealt . Standard raise has been to $10 or $12. Hero's turn to act with no action in front.

Go.

 

[Mr Tree]

I assume this is $1/$2.

This is a hand from my Vegas trip that I still cannot get over.

3 players that matter.

Hero - sitting at just north of $300 on a $270 buy-in.
Villain #1 - just sat down a few hands earlier, no knowledge of play style. Stack is roughly $300.
Villain #2 - been a pretty loose player, has re-bought once since hero sat down.

Hero is UTG+1 on a 7 handed table, gets dealt . Standard raise has been to $10 or $12. Hero's turn to act with no action in front.

Go.

I would give it a small rolling raise to like $8 to hopefully take charge and keep it from being too big preflop. If you smash a flop you’ve got the pot building started and if not just fade away. If you meet real resistance preflop dump ‘em.

 

[Kain8]

Raise to $10 and fold to a 3-bet if it happens.

 

[detroitdad]

Raise to $10 and fold to a 3-bet if it happens.

This

 

[Nathanman123]

Agree, 55 has implied odds when you hit your set, but it's just a set-mine so don't hold on for much, what's the rate to hit a set, like 17%? Less?

 

[detroitdad]

what's the rate to hit a set, like 17%? Less?

50% You either do, or you don't I know, its an old joke. Screw it. I'm old

 

[Nathanman123]

50% You either do, or you don't I know, its an old joke. Screw it. I'm old

If it makes you feel any better, my college friends still use it

 

[Mr Tree]

Agree, 55 has implied odds when you hit your set, but it's just a set-mine so don't hold on for much, what's the rate to hit a set, like 17%? Less?

1 in seven to seven and a half times so a little less than 17%.

Still in a Vegas $1/$2 game this is a bread and butter hand to me. There are tons of players at this level waiting to stack off on an A5X flop with an ace in their hand.

 

[ChaosRock]

I'm fine with either folding or making it $10.

 

[DrStrange]

This is a speculative hand. Hero should avoid playing this hand in low SPR pots. If the table were aggressive enough to make that unlikely - say a lot of 3-bets and even 4-bets then it is a fold.

But Hero observes that the table is more "normal", with a $10 to $12 raise being the standard.

We don't have post flop reads, which are critical to making a decision here. Is the table limping a bunch? Do people stack off on top pair hands? Is there a lot of fit & fold play post flop?

If Hero can raise preflop and expect to win most of the time with a c-bet, fine do that. Raise to $10. Hero is really just planning on a flop bluff for most of his value here.

If Hero can't see most players stacking off without a big hand, then fold or limp. Unless the c-bet is a likely winner.

If the table limps a bunch, but is hard to extract much value from - then limp.

If Hero's plan is set mining, he needs to win something like 10x his preflop investment to breakeven on the risk. (one time in eight to flop a set plus some extra to cover the rake and tip.) And even if he flops the set, no assurances that it holds up.

Any of the options are potential viable. Deciding the best line depends on the post flop nature of the table.

My bias vs unknowns is to limp and see what develops. Hero's position is average minus for a seven player table. Let's not let a 3-bet blow us off the hand.

 

[Nathanman123]

1 in seven to seven and a half times so a little less than 17%.

Still in a Vegas $1/$2 game this is a bread and butter hand to me. There are tons of players at this level waiting to stack off on an A5X flop with an ace in their hand.

Hence the implied odds, but you're right, after some Googling it's a bit less than 12%, so not very great.

 

[Jonesey07]

Yes, it's a $1/$2 game at the Venetian. Roughly 2:30 AM Vegas time but doesn't appear to affect action at the table.

I decided to raise to $10 and got two callers. Neither of the blinds call so I'll be first to act the rest of the hand.

Hero holds:
Flop comes:

Action is on the hero, $30 in the pot.

 

[detroitdad]

bet 22

 

[Jimulacrum]

Limp preflop. Nothing wrong with a raise, though.

On the flop, bet $25.

 

[Mr Tree]

Yes, it's a $1/$2 game at the Venetian. Roughly 2:30 AM Vegas time but doesn't appear to affect action at the table.

I decided to raise to $10 and got two callers. Neither of the blinds call so I'll be first to act the rest of the hand.

Hero holds:
Flop comes:

Action is on the hero, $30 in the pot.

As good as a flop as you could hope for. The bonus is this looks really dry to most preflop bets so you might get reraise on a bet that looks like a c-bet. Bet two thirds of the pot and see what happens.

 

[Pesto628]

I'm fine with either folding or making it $10.

This

 

[Pesto628]

Also I like a $20 bet on the flop

 

[Jonesey07]

After that flop I lead out with $25. I get called by both players.

Hero holds:
Flop comes:
Turn brings:

Action back on the hero..

 

[detroitdad]

55 in the pot...

I'm betting 40

 

[Pesto628]

I’m leading out for $80 here. I’d say we can still be ahead of a lot of hands they call with at 1/2. Folding to a raise most likely

 

[Jonesey07]

55 in the pot...

I'm betting 40

Over $100 in the pot currently.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Yeah, pot's $105. Hate that card, but can't instantly give up on such a strong hand. Bet a little over half-pot, say $60 or $65. Even $50 would be justifiable. Preparing to fold to all but the smallest raises.

 

[Kain8]

I'm in the check/call camp. I don't want to get raised off my hand and if I boat up on the river, I'm getting paid off almost always by leading out because 1/2 recs think a flush is always the nuts even on a paired board.

 

[Nathanman123]

I think this is bet/fold at these stakes. People here will be calling with TPTK and two pair. But they will be raising their flushes. Check if you're more conservative but could be letting people with a single club (like or ) see the river free

 

[DoubleEagle]

I’m never open limping here or ever. Just invites too many random hands to call that can knock your d**k in the dirt. I’m betting 2/3 the pot on the flop. Turn sucks. With two villains one could easily have hit a flush here. But I’m not going to surrender yet, betting about 1/3 of the pot and see what happens. Folding to a raise. Two flat calls are scary also.

 

[joker80]

I check call the turn hoping for a paired board.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I’m never limping here or ever.

"Or ever" meaning you never limp, period?

 

[Steve Birrer]

I like a check call unless the bet is really big. And if the next player bets and is called or raised by the third player I am folding for sure.

 

[Mr Tree]

I’m betting but I’m not calling a shove. Hoping to boat out on the river. If I get called here I am likely check folding the river.

 

[DoubleEagle]

"Or ever" meaning you never limp, period?

I never open limp.