Play 2-5 suited with me (1 Viewer)

[EasyE]

NLHE 60 man tournament
4 people left. Payouts remaining are 800, 600, 350, 250.
Blinds are huge at 7,500/15k

UTG= 148k
Button 50k
Sb-50k
Bb Hero-52k

UTG a bit of a mystery, button was huge chip leader going into the final table and has been tight. Sb has been splashing around.

UTG folds, button goes all in, sb calls
.
Hero has and....

 

[Chipandchair]

Ask for a chop!!!

 

[EasyE]

Ask for a chop!!!

Good idea I didn't think of that one

 

[Chipandchair]

Fold. Wait for the loser of that pot to bust and then chop up remaining prize money

 

[Perthmike]

It's a gross spot, but even with that much of your cash in the pot, surely it's not worth calling off with 52.

 

[EasyE]

I really like the preflop chop request @Chipandchair that would of probably worked too.
Thinking fold or shove when sb called I contemplated the next hand. After posting the small blind I'd have about two bets left vs the 2 big stacks.
Securing 3rd was almost certain when folding or try for chip lead heads up.

I called based on hoping both had A something and me two live cards.
They had and
A came on the flop and I survived the turn and river to their dismay.

Still unsure if it was the proper equity fold or not. Not good on the EV+- stuff.

Would I be about a 20-30% shot to win before the flop and then figure in the expected winnings somehow?

 

[Mattsme]

I like your call. Maybe my math is off, but even if you lose you’re guaranteed 3rd anyway because you still have 2k left, and one of other players is out, unless of course they split the pot for some reason.

 

[EasyE]

I like your call. Maybe my math is off, but even if you lose you’re guaranteed 3rd anyway because you still have 2k left, and one of other players is out, unless of course they split the pot for some reason.

Another positive outcome to consider if losing. I hadn't cosidered that part. Thanks.

 

[Chipandchair]

I like your call. Maybe my math is off, but even if you lose you’re guaranteed 3rd anyway because you still have 2k left, and one of other players is out, unless of course they split the pot for some reason.

Folding guarantees 3rd as well and nobody gonna chop with you if you only have 2k leftover

 

[Beakertwang]

I read the title and just wanted to respond...

No thanks.

I’ll go read the OP now.

 

[waddadonk]

i don't have any strategy software, but is this one of those situations that ICM solvers tell you what to do?

 

[Mattsme]

Folding guarantees 3rd as well and nobody gonna chop with you if you only have 2k leftover

Valid point. I wasn’t really considering chops. I was never really a live tourney player.

Then again, with 37k against 115k and 148k, how much of a chop can you negotiate? Genuinely asking, as I’ve never chopped. I would think you would get maybe a little more than 3rd’s share, but only because the blinds are so high.

 

[Chipandchair]

Valid point. I wasn’t really considering chops. I was never really a live tourney player.

Then again, with 37k against 115k and 148k, how much of a chop can you negotiate? Genuinely asking, as I’ve never chopped. I would think you would get maybe a little more than 3rd’s share, but only because the blinds are so high.

Sometimes you have to be creative and reward the bigger stacks while still getting a bigger slice than the prize pool. Remember the big dog is one hand away from taking 2nd. I feel like most tournaments I play in end in a chop, especially if multiple tables involved.

 

[v1pe]

One of them is going to lose and you are going to ladder up. Easy fold IMO.

 

[WedgeRock]

Unless to have a read on the stub and know is coming, I agree. EZ fold.

 

[mipevi]

Calling is fine, you have the equity to do so.

 

[skylines]

Free app so can’t configure exactly for this setup but seems like a technical fold. So close tho, so who cares. Agree, chop pre.

 

[DrStrange]

If Hero does nothing (folds), the hand plays out and one villain is eliminated. The chip leader will still have 148K, the survivor will have 100K and Hero will have 37K left. Hero will be jamming all in in the next hand or two. By the third hand Hero will be back in the big blind with 30K chips posting a 15K blind.

If Hero makes it a three way pot, he loses something like 75% - 80% of the time perhaps more. If hero loses, his 2K chips leave him only technically alive, Hero is only hoping for some silly mistake by a villain to keep him out of third place. But if Hero wins, he goes to second place guaranteed with a tiny chip lead.

I think the tactical situation leads me to suggest Hero try his luck. Sure he is getting the short end of the stick but winning the hand leads to a solid chance to win the event and at the very least a second place finish. Let's go for a shot at winning right now.

Folding means Hero is going to jam in the next two hands or perhaps three hands. If the villains fold their worst hands, Hero is basically back to 52K or fewer chips and still in the shove ASAP mode. Hero will need to get lucky not to be eliminated in third place.

Hero has no good options. I choose jam with 52s and pray for luck. Hero is going to be praying for luck one way or the other anyway.

Better to die fighting to win rather than cowering in fear hoping to survive -=- DrStrange

 

[Frogzilla]

You’ve got a third of your stack in there from the blind and button is short enough to be shoving basically any pair or face card. We should be calling pretty wide. 25s is a tough one, I think I fold here but it’s probably close and calling isn’t much worse than folding

 

[1A25R]

3.5 BB behind and 53 (but was suited sir!) it sucks.
The real question is : why you didn't pushed all in / squeeze with better hands before reaching 4 BB

 

[EasyE]

3.5 BB behind and 53 (but was suited sir!) it sucks.
The real question is : why you didn't pushed all in / squeeze with better hands before reaching 4 BB

I was watching my avg stack the whole tourney hoping to get to the final table with 30k avg.
I made it there close to that and when the blinds started skyrocketing I mostly put the pedal to the metal.
I lost and won about 6 all ins at the final table. Biggest hit for me at the final table was I got down to 11k when AK lost to AA. but built it back up to where I was with 4 left.

 

[1A25R]

Ok, so real question answered : Bad luck.
So with 3.5 BB I'll go all in without second thought and not expecting much.

 

[v1pe]

Ok, so real question answered : Bad luck.
So with 3.5 BB I'll go all in without second thought and not expecting much.

Normally I would agree, except that folding here is an automatic $100 extra in our pocket. It'd be much different if we were first to shove.

Our mistake here is likely not shoving something higher up in hand range in the 10-15bb range.

 

[1A25R]

Playing poker with you must be super exiting
And nothing guarantee an automatic +$100 as current SB and Bouton still have respectively 50K on the next hand hero pays SB that and keep 44.5 k behind. So if current SB and Bouton just folds, Hero will be blinded off in 2 orbits and v1 an v2 will still have a 500 chip in front of them

 

[waddadonk]

I don't know the right way to analyze this spot, so taking a shot here. Someone who knows better please chime in. Are these the values you would use to do an EV calculation?

E(Fold) ~= -$3
E(Call) ~= -$100*p(losing) + $250*p(win) ...

If your hand has over ~28% equity vs their ranges call, and if less, fold?


Current stack value

If you fold, barring their chop

If you call and lose

If you call and win

 

[v1pe]

Playing poker with you must be super exiting
And nothing guarantee an automatic +$100 as current SB and Bouton still have respectively 50K on the next hand hero pays SB that and keep 44.5 k behind. So if current SB and Bouton just folds, Hero will be blinded off in 2 orbits and v1 an v2 will still have a 500 chip in front of them

In the op it says that button shoved and sb calls with same stack size, then action is on us in the bb. So one of those players is getting knocked out pending a very unlikely chop pot and we are suddenly $100 richer according to the payout structure op posted.

Unless I read something wrong.

Short stack late stage tournament play IS pretty damn boring IMO.

 

[1A25R]

You're right, I'm wrong
I miss read who pushed all in

 

[mipevi]

@waddadonk From your fist pic posted you can calculate the monetary value for each of hero's chips and those of the villains in the hand.

$457.01 / 52k = dollar value for each of hero's chips

$450.52 / 50k = dollar value for each of villains' chips (in this case both have exactly the same stacks so chips are worth the same)

For breakeven equity you calculate it just like you normally would (the amount of chips needed to call divided by the total chips in pot after said call), but instead of amounts of chips you use the monetary value for those chips.

35k * $457.01 / 52k / ( 100k * $450.52 / 50k + 50k * $457.1 / 52k ) = 0.22947...

So 23% equity would be a +EV call.

 

[mipevi]

With these stack sizes, people should be stealing like crazy. But let's give the tight BTN a nitty range of top 15%, and the splashy SB a tight calling range of top 10%. Even against those ranges calling with is profitable.

 

[Steve Birrer]

I'll take my simple engineering brain and fold. I am just about assured of $100 plus up and have two hands to get a better starting hand and to likely be going against just one villain instead of two. Y'all can take your ICM and fancy programs and keep them...lol.