PAHWM: w/6s8s Mavens Site (1 Viewer)

Legend5555

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Playing on a Maven's Site (not any PCFer's site).
Table is fairly limpy, with a few regs that are "decent."
HERO is up 100bb and has been fairly aggressive. No history with the VILLAIN as he has never seen him before this session.
VILLAIN is playing fairly loose, though not limping into every hand or anything. But only about 30 hands into session before the hand in question.

Game is 8 handed.
Effective stack 220bb

Folds to Hero.
HERO is in LJ with :6s::8s: and raises to 3bb.
Folds to VILLAIN in BB who calls.

Pot: 6.5bb
Eff Stack: 217bb
Flop: :as::3d::7h:

VILLAIN leads for 2.5bb

HERO?
 

boltonguy

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Interesting donk lead by Villain. I would think that with such a dry board and the A hitting your LJ RFI range that V should expect you to be cbetting this 1/3 - 1/2 pot at a very high frequency. So is there really a need to donk to avoid it checking through? I dont think so.

So what could be V's motivation for leading here? If he has a strong hand like 2 pair or a set why not just X/C or X/R? There are really no draws out there on such a dry board. Getting Hero to fold worse hands now would be a bad play for a very strong hand IMHO.

I have seen some players lead here with a medium PP (99 for example) or even 7x, thought process being that if you dont connect with the A they are probably good as the other two cards on the flop are below your normal RFI range (i.e. not opening may hands with a 3 or a 7 in them). So they donk here for protection and FE (which I dont agree with). V could also have a gutshot with 24, 56, 46 with a BDFD if suited but again probably a better X/R IMHO. A 1/2 pot donk lead here is a cheaper way to try and get a fold than a X/R which would probably need to be 9BB or so to be effective. So maybe V is trying to get a cheap fold with a weak hand here. Either way this looks more like an attempt to get a fold than a nutted hand looking to build a pot.

Other than the obvious BDFD, Hero doesnt have much equity here. So if V is bluffing, I dont think you have much of a bluff-catcher and I dont think you are super likely to improve on future streets. Pairing either card may give you the winner 24% of the time but for anything stronger you'll need runner runner spades or straight cards which is tough. So generally I'm sigh folding here with a lack of equity and low chance to improve. I do find myself in situations where I think it is likely that V is bluffing or semi-bluffing for sure but without a bluff catcher I generally sigh fold and let it go.

But I dont think you're posting this hand to fold on the flop :)

I'm not a fan of calling given the lack of equity and poor odds for Hero to improve, so door #2 might be raising with air to 3.5x and evaluate turn if called (probably shutting down unless you pick up additional equity). I think the raise is spewy for sure but the A hits your range hard. You are IP and can continue to barrel on future streets. So I am like 95% fold, 5% raise here just because it makes for good TV :)
 
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boltonguy

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Out of curiosity I put this in the solver to see what hands would donk here.
Solver only leads 9% of the time and always for pot sizing.
As you may guess it is a mix of strong hands (sets and 2 pairs) and bluffs (45s, 64s, 65s) and a few one-pair hands like 97s, 87s that bet for protection/denial in case Hero missed the A.
I didnt put 68s in LJ range as that's too loose for my default LJ range but I'm guessing the the solver would fold here 100%.

1621870547014.png
 

Legend5555

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I would remove QQ from the OOP range. And I would add QJo, KTo, QTo, JTo, Q9s, K9s. And it might be wider than that from what I saw of the guy. But i'll be conservative.

68s isn't in my default LJ open range, but I do raise it occasionally just so I have it in the mix.

I'd be curious to see what sizing it chooses to bet 68s (or let's say 89s) here when checked to on flop though. I imagine with 2 backdoor draws on a dry board it would want to bet almost the entire range.
 

JustinInMN

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Folds to Hero.
HERO is in LJ with :6s::8s: and raises to 3bb.
Folds to VILLAIN in BB who calls.

Pot: 6.5bb
Eff Stack: 217bb
Flop: :as::3d::7h:

VILLAIN leads for 2.5bb

I think I am just going to fold this one. No problem with the preflop open, it's a fine hand to attack blinds and a good hand to have in position if the raise will fold out the two players between you and the button. You will often find spots to outplay blind defenders even with the worst hand.

That said, villain's line just isn't a bluff very often unless you have specific history. A donk on a board that doesn't really present any semi-bluffing hands figures to be at least "something." Best case maybe you are somehow against a dry 3, worst case you need 3 outs or backdoor runners. It's also going to be hard to get a scary runout on a board this dry to give you a chance to take it away later in the hand. 86s is probably about bottom of your range here facing a bet. I think you can pass on this one with confidence. (That said, the existence of this thread leads me to believe that is not what happened.)

68s isn't in my default LJ open range, but I do raise it occasionally just so I have it in the mix.
No issue with that. Seems fine to use this hand to attack blinds. But I think it underscores you really are at bottom of range facing a line that is just unlikely to be "nothing." It's okay to pass here.
 

boltonguy

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I bought a RAM upgrade to 16GB as well FYI as available RAM limits the size of the solvable game tree. Multiple bet sizing on multiple streets is what makes the game tree larger. Very few scenarios I havent been able to solve with 16GB.
 

grebe

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Playing on a Maven's Site (not any PCFer's site).
Table is fairly limpy, with a few regs that are "decent."
HERO is up 100bb and has been fairly aggressive. No history with the VILLAIN as he has never seen him before this session.
VILLAIN is playing fairly loose, though not limping into every hand or anything. But only about 30 hands into session before the hand in question.

Game is 8 handed.
Effective stack 220bb

Folds to Hero.
HERO is in LJ with :6s::8s: and raises to 3bb.
Folds to VILLAIN in BB who calls.

Pot: 6.5bb
Eff Stack: 217bb
Flop: :as::3d::7h:

VILLAIN leads for 2.5bb

HERO?
Raise. V is weak, but hit something. You have the advantage here....you have way more aces than he does in your range, and he is looking to see if you have one. Tell them you do. I raise to 9 bb's.
 

LotsOfChips

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So you raised a pretty crappy PF hand from MP on a limpy table, got one caller, and pretty much missed the flop (you need Runner Runner for both your SD and FD, and even pairing up one of your weak Hole Cards on the turn would probably still leave you behind). Villain is representing something approximating strength. Unless you really want to Gambool, or you think that continued aggression can get the one remaining villain to fold, personally I would fold and wait for a better opportunity. But then I've been jaded by online poker (even Mavens), having lost with 85% advantage about 85% of the time.

Not every villain thinks in ranges, and not every villain follows "correct" betting patterns. He may have called you down with A3o, and doesn't want to rely on your continued aggression to build the pot. Or he might have air (against your air). If V is very bluffy, it MAY be worth hanging around, but your hand isn't much of a Bluff Catcher.
 

Legend5555

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Enough fun speculation. I have no clue what the GTO is but while playing I saw a case for all 3 actions. Obviously this is very low in my range, and had the bet been larger, a fold (or possible raise) makes sense. Raising donk leads can be good especially when the board rates to hit my range harder than them. But, from an exploitative POV, no one that donk's is almost ever folding to a raise. But we do have a bunch of backdoor equity. Our hand improves on a 4, 5, 9, T, or a spade. So if we do raise, we have a lot of double barrel opportunity. But I generally want to know a bit more about our villain before going this route. Given the bet is so small, and we have a lot of backdoor equity, I decided to float and evaluate. I can rep all sets this way, as I don't think I'd ever raise a donk lead if I flopped a set here given how dry the board is. And all the sets are in my range, as well as A3s.

As a pure exploit, when people donk, I generally want to try and find a way to continue so I can figure out what their donk range is like. My default assumption though is that it's a middling strength hand or a draw that doesn't want to face a larger bet or multiple streets of aggression, or wants to set it's own price. It's rarely a nut hand.

Game is 8 handed.
Effective stack 220bb

Folds to Hero.
HERO is in LJ with :6s::8s: and raises to 3bb.
Folds to VILLAIN in BB who calls.

Pot: 6.5bb
Eff Stack: 217bb
Flop: :as::3d::7h:

VILLAIN leads for 2.5bb
HERO calls.

Pot: 11.5bb
Eff Stack: 214.5bb
Turn: :as::3d::7h::ts:

VILLAIN bets 5.5bb

HERO?
 

boltonguy

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Four 9s and eight spades beat V's value range with a straight or flush.
12 outs with one street = 24% and he is laying you 3:1 so I think that you have exactly the equity needed to call here.
 

grebe

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Friday night, I played 2 hands very similar to this.

First hand: SB v. BB (Hero) Folds to SB, he calls, I raise with AJo. Flop comes middle cards, SB donks in to me, I call. Turn is a blank, he bets again, I fold. He shows a gutshot. Would have folded to ANY BET ANYWHERE.

Second hand: folds to Hero in cutoff, raise with J8s...BB calls. Flop comes ace high, check C-bet....min-raise from BB. I consider that he is full of shit with that min raise and call with plans to take it from him. Turn comes blank, I bet large, he tank calls. River comes blank, I bet small and he folds his missed draw.

The point is: sometimes you have to listen to what the players are telling you and act according to their hand, not yours. Donk bets are flashing lights that say I will fold if you put pressure on me.
 

JustinInMN

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As a pure exploit, when people donk, I generally want to try and find a way to continue so I can figure out what their donk range is like.

This is actually a pretty defensible reason to float, early in a session. But note this can get expensive with two streets to come.

As for the turn at, you got about the best card you could hope for so folding is no longer an option. Still I don't think you have fold equity raising a donk bet. And I would have to face a shove if we raise the turn.

Calling seems to be the only good answer to me.
 

LotsOfChips

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Okay, you just made the first Runner for both the FD and the SD. 12 outs for completing on the river, with an increase to around 25% likelihood of crushing Villain's dreams. Definitely not a fold here, but a raise might be spewy, unless you really think you can push V off of his hand. A call and then raising if/when you hit the river might not get you as much if you win, but it would cost you less if you lose. Money not lost is just as good as money won.
 

grebe

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Just get to the river where the guy shows you he just had some nonsense like 78 all along. THE BEST hand this guy could have is 73 for bottom 2. I doubt that though. My money is on 67, 78, 79, some combo of a shitty pair of 7's.
 

JustinInMN

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The point is: sometimes you have to listen to what the players are telling you and act according to their hand, not yours. Donk bets are flashing lights that say I will fold if you put pressure on me.
See I have very different experience. I would assume a player is defending a donk bet, especially on a board this dry, unless I have specific history to the contrary.
 

JustinInMN

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I doubt that though. My money is on 67, 78, 79, some combo of a shitty pair of 7's.
Even though we disagree on the nature of the donk bet, this is what I suspect as well. So maybe there will be other misses where hero could still bluff the river. :)
 

grebe

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Even though we disagree on the nature of the donk bet, this is what I suspect as well. So maybe there will be other misses where hero could still bluff the river. :)
The longer you wait, the harder it will be to rep. that Ace. It might take more than 1 bullet, but they will usually give it up.
 

Legend5555

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Pot odds are good, but pot is going to be hard to win if we miss. I'm no too happy with taking one of my worst hands that has substantial equity and just trying to "get there." WHile I don't expect a single turn raise to get the job done. A 2 barrel plan should get VILLAIN off most single pair hands. Even stations recognize that a call/raise/bet line represents extreme strength. And if I'm going to play AA, 33, 77, and AT this way, I need some bluffs too. And I'd rather bluff with a hand with good equity but no showdown value than a hand with neither.

Game is 8 handed.
Effective stack 220bb

Folds to Hero.
HERO is in LJ with :6s::8s: and raises to 3bb.
Folds to VILLAIN in BB who calls.

Pot: 6.5bb
Eff Stack: 217bb
Flop: :as::3d::7h:

VILLAIN leads for 2.5bb
HERO calls.

Pot: 11.5bb
Eff Stack: 214.5bb
Turn: :as::3d::7h::ts:

VILLAIN bets 5.5bb
HERO raises to 20bb
VILLAIN thinks then calls.

Pot: 51.5bb
Eff stack: 194.5bb
River: :as::3d::7h::ts::6h:

VILLAIN checks.

HERO?
 

Trihonda

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I’d vote for a pot sized bet... you just raised him, and he gives up the lead, you’ve shown extreme strength, and a big bet on the River screams you have it or you’re bluffing. I’d consider your hand a bluff... but if they gave up the lead, I think they’ll fold to a large bet. im ranging them on a 7x hand, and the only way you’re winning is to bet.
 

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I don’t hate a river bluff but I have a tendency to overbluff so I lean towards just checking this specific combo back now that we can beat some Broadway spades that took this line
 

Legend5555

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I don’t hate a river bluff but I have a tendency to overbluff so I lean towards just checking this specific combo back now that we can beat some Broadway spades that took this line
How often is the guy (even a bad player) just donking the flop with broadway spades?
 
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