PAHWM: Villain over bets against your strong hand...

johnnyesper

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The responses to the Brad Owen hand got me thinking about a hand from PFC Tourney last week. If a villain shows you absolute strength would you call? What would you do in this situation?

It was about the middle of the about Myself and the eventual villain were around 34 bbs deep. We are 6 handed at our table and the blinds are 300/600. The action is as follows:

Action folds to the CO who open raises to 1500. Standard raise size at this point.
Hero is on the button and see black eights, :8c::8s:. Like I said I have 34 bbs (20k). I consider 3-betting but I don't think its a good decision so I flat the PFR. I figure if I hit something good my hand will be well disguised here.
The main villain calls in the sb and the bb gets a decent price to come along.

the pot is 6420

The flop is pretty dreamy for the hero, :2h::th::8d:

Hero hits middle set on a low slightly connected board in position. I think I should be able to extract decent value in this hand.

The flop checks around to the hero.

I don't want anyone to get a free card here so I bet for thin value, about 2400. I feel I'm likely way ahead of the PFR and in very good position against the blinds ranges.

To my surprise, the main villain in the sb jams his stack for 16k effective. He has me covered. The action folds to me.

In the Brad Owen hand we knew the outcome so it was easy to say that he should have folded. The situation is similar. We have a great hand and the villain over bet jams against us. Middle set is pretty good.

There is literately only one hand we are behind here, and that's pocket TT.

So what would you do?
 

DrStrange

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Hero is crushing villain's range. This is a fist pumping call - it is as good as Hero could hope for. It would take a remarkable villain read to do anything else.

The SPR is under three from the villain's point of view. We might eliminate some of the biggest pairs from villain's range, but maybe not. I have seen plenty of folks play kings and queens soft waiting to see if the flop was favorable, cold calling vs 3-betting preflop. Villain could have all sorts of draws in his/her range. There are three top two pair combos to balance top set hands. Even some top pair + runner-runner hands.

Shallow stacks should be motivating Villain's play and Hero's as well. Hero's line doesn't look that strong. Hero could have a lot of weaker hands and made the same 40% pot donk bet. A check-raise jam will fold out a lot of Hero's range. But not middle set.

Hero shouldn't be trying to get off the hook in a set over set situation. There is no room to maneuver like you might playing 500bb stacks. Villain started with something like 26bb. If you both have sets, pay it off.
 

Frogzilla

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This is a different game because of ICM. You can possibly really stretch and make a case for ditching middle set on the stone bubble, but other than that you’ve got an easy call
 

judgeanjury

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Calling. I would put him on 2 pair, maybe flush or straight draws but a SB call after a raise and a call seems out of place to have pocket 10's. Plus he could think you are raising thin on the flop being on the button.
 

upNdown

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This is a different game because of ICM. You can possibly really stretch and make a case for ditching middle set on the stone bubble, but other than that you’ve got an easy call
Yeah, all things being equal, this is an easy call all day. Anywhere in the first, day 3/4 of the tournament, it’s a snap. But I’m not afraid to lay it down if ICM dictates. Need more information to be sure, but chances are this is an easy call.
 

upNdown

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And for what it’s worth, the only hands that make sense here to me are Ah10h or 9hJh/9h7h.
I realize that’s a grand total of 3 combos, but if your villain is not insane, he’s probably got one of them.
 

johnnyesper

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What do we know about villain's style of play at this point?

The villain is a very capable and by all accounts a good player. That's partially why I was thrown by the flop jam. It didn't seem like a "normal" play at this point. I see this from many that want to protect there big pairs from getting cracked or wild players that dont know how to bet.

This is a different game because of ICM. You can possibly really stretch and make a case for ditching middle set on the stone bubble, but other than that you’ve got an easy call

Im not sure ICM has an implications at this point because it was a 17 person tourney, only top 3 got paid, and we were no where near the bubble. Im not sure if that matters but it seems to me that if I can get a full double up here I would be able to cruise to the final table.
 

Kain8

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Not really sure how this is even a discussion. You flopped the second nuts and there are a veritable multitude of hands the cutoff can have here. Primarily some sort of combo draw, an overpair with a heart, or two overcards with a flush draw (most likely holding in my opinion).

If you're not calling your stack off here, then you might as well not buy in to begin with.
 

chicubs1988

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Calling unless I have a solid read on how the villain plays. Here, everyone is getting shortstacked and looks like you just made a play to try and steal a respectable pot when everyone else showed weakness. I think it’s far more likely that the villain is bluffing, or has a pair with a draw and is semi-bluffing. I think by far the least likely scenario is that you’re behind. If he has pocket 10s I think he would have played it differently preflop.
 

JustinInMN

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Yeah, this is an easy call. It feels like a flush draw semi bluff, villian figuring he's live against anything that calls and he might get some one pair hands to fold by taking agressive action. Some villians would play certain overpairs this way too. I might play AA as villian for example knowing a free card is only bad if the opponent has a flush draw. (Particularly if I have a blocker to the nut flush draw here.) Otherwise I have everything else crushed. I might turn something like KQ or AQ into a bluff as villian here as well

Maybe not all the overpairs are in villian's range, and I know two pair doesn't make sense, but as hero we really don't have to come up with much besides TT in villian's range to justify the call when TT is all that has us in jail.
 

johnnyesper

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Not really sure how this is even a discussion. You flopped the second nuts and there are a veritable multitude of hands the cutoff can have here. Primarily some sort of combo draw, an overpair with a heart, or two overcards with a flush draw (most likely holding in my opinion).

If you're not calling your stack off here, then you might as well not buy in to begin with.

So my main point was more about the reaction to the earlier Brad Owen thread. I wondered how people would react to a huge over bet when you think you are ahead. Not knowing the outcome has produced different responses. lol.

Now my decision.

I did a double take when he jammed my bet. I tried to figure out what the heck he could have that would make him do that. TBH, it was a very polarizing bet.

That didn't deter me. It was a snap call from me. I'm pretty sure I would call this bet all day, everyday, and twice on Sunday.

Villian turns over... :ah::7h:. I was not out of the woods but I was happy to say I was in good shape. I was about 70% to win this hand a get full double up.

The run out was... :qh: on the turn giving the villain the flush and the :7c: on the river was no help knocking me out of the tournament.

Moral of the story... I would make that call every. single. time. ;)
 

upNdown

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So my main point was more about the reaction to the earlier Brad Owen thread. I wondered how people would react to a huge over bet when you think you are ahead. Not knowing the outcome has produced different responses. lol.

Now my decision.

I did a double take when he jammed my bet. I tried to figure out what the heck he could have that would make him do that. TBH, it was a very polarizing bet.

That didn't deter me. It was a snap call from me. I'm pretty sure I would call this bet all day, everyday, and twice on Sunday.

Villian turns over... :ah::7h:. I was not out of the woods but I was happy to say I was in good shape. I was about 70% to win this hand a get full double up.

The run out was... :qh: on the turn giving the villain the flush and the :7c: on the river was no help knocking me out of the tournament.

Moral of the story... I would make that call every. single. time. ;)
Sometimes maniac villains get rewarded. Good call.
 

Kyle

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The responses to the Brad Owen hand got me thinking about a hand from PFC Tourney last week. If a villain shows you absolute strength would you call? What would you do in this situation?

It was about the middle of the about Myself and the eventual villain were around 34 bbs deep. We are 6 handed at our table and the blinds are 300/600. The action is as follows:

Action folds to the CO who open raises to 1500. Standard raise size at this point.
Hero is on the button and see black eights, :8c::8s:. Like I said I have 34 bbs (20k). I consider 3-betting but I don't think its a good decision so I flat the PFR. I figure if I hit something good my hand will be well disguised here.
The main villain calls in the sb and the bb gets a decent price to come along.

the pot is 6420

The flop is pretty dreamy for the hero, :2h::th::8d:

Hero hits middle set on a low slightly connected board in position. I think I should be able to extract decent value in this hand.

The flop checks around to the hero.

I don't want anyone to get a free card here so I bet for thin value, about 2400. I feel I'm likely way ahead of the PFR and in very good position against the blinds ranges.

To my surprise, the main villain in the sb jams his stack for 16k effective. He has me covered. The action folds to me.

In the Brad Owen hand we knew the outcome so it was easy to say that he should have folded. The situation is similar. We have a great hand and the villain over bet jams against us. Middle set is pretty good.

There is literately only one hand we are behind here, and that's pocket TT.

So what would you do?
Really? You don't know what to do? Ha ha
 

Mojo1312

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Joining in late. Purging my e-mails this evening and uncovered this one from March of 18.

Regarding last night's 30 player tournament. (Hollywood Casino) We were down to two tables, 5 and 6 players. The higher blinds combined with the aggression at our table had worn down the patience of a few players, resulting in decisions being made out of frustration.

A player in EP raised pre-flop and then folded to a hefty re-raise. A short while later the same player made another pre-flop bet from the small blind. The overwhelming chip leader jammed all-in after limping in with pocket Kings UTG.

The aggressor called with AH,3H. The board ran out X,4,5,6,7 (Not in that order)
This seemed like a terrible play by the small blind because he had a fairly healthy chip stack.

The very next hand, I am dealt pocket tens. I raise, and am called by the player in the BB who had his Kings busted UTG. The flop: a black 4, 9D, 10D. He moves all-in and I called. He flips over QD, JC or S and catches the King of Hearts on the turn. The board failed to pair on the river.

I am out in 11th place. /

Variance. Villain loses to A,3 suited and then felts Hero with an OESD/backdoor flush draw. Some hands you can't escape.
 
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JustinInMN

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Obviously hero made the right play, but, I don't hate the way villian played this either.

The :ah::7h: pf raise is wide, but villian is in a steal position too.

On the flop, from villian's perspective hero almost never has overpairs and is going to have a tough call with a single ten here. But even if hero finds a call, villian is still drawing to the nuts and possibly an ace for the lead.

Even if villian knew hero had a set, he is going to check-call and in this case make th flush on the turn.

If hero knew villian was raising pre as weak as A7s maybe there's a case to 3 bet 88, but I really like hero's rationale for the flat.
 
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WedgeRock

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When you don't reveal your hand strength PF, you can't blame villain if he thinks you're stealing post flop. As was said, it looked very similar to you trying to take it down on the button when everyone else showed weakness of the flop.

I wonder how that hand plays out if you re-raise pre and it checks to you on the flop and you bet again. I don't know if Villain would jam there.
 

JustinInMN

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I wonder how that hand plays out if you re-raise pre and it checks to you on the flop and you bet again. I don't know if Villain would jam there.

Villian isn't going to jam, but he is going to call in a low spr spot with the nfd.

I think the only way hero changes the outcome is a 3 bet pre, but that seems to hero in a bad spot where he will have to fold to a 4 bet shove.

If hero goes for the 3 bet overshove it seems like a game theory disaster.

This is a big problem with how people think about tournament strategy, bust outs are so dramatic people want to avoid them at all costs without thinking of the other strategic implications.
 

Shaggy

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Why would hero want to change the outcome? That's result oriented thinking. Hero got all his chips in good.

Are there tournament implications here that I’m missing? Seems to me he was far from the bubble. I admit I am a predominant cash player.
 

upNdown

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Why would hero want to change the outcome? That's result oriented thinking. Hero got all his chips in good.

Are there tournament implications here that I’m missing? Seems to me he was far from the bubble. I admit I am a predominant cash player.
Yes and no for me In a $15 online tourney, sure, I'll get it all in there without hesitation. But in a live tourney for real money, I'm not so eager to do so. In most stages of a tournament, I'm not excited to merely get it all in good. Because there's a turn and a river coming, and even when you get it in good, you're what, 65-70% at best, generally? I have enough faith in my ability to pick spots and build my stack over the next few hours without as much risk.
I'm not going to argue and say that everybody should want to change the outcome. But I know for me and for my style, I'm not just looking to always get it all it good and hope for the best.
 

Shaggy

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Seems to me an opportunity to double up when you’re a 70% favorite should almost always be taken... with a fist pump. We are rarely against a set of tens here. There’s risk averse... and then there is -EV. I think the most positive EV play here is what hero did. See cheap flop in position... get it in if given the opportunity... when you flop a set. Three betting pre is still likely +EV, but potentially stickier... though, playing that line may win you the pot when you don’t flop a set and you’re checked to.
 

johnnyesper

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Obviously hero made the right play, but, I don't hate the way villian played this either.

The :ah::7h: pf raise is wide, but villian is in a steal position too.

On the flop, from villian's perspective hero almost never has overpairs and is going to have a tough call with a single ten here. But even if hero finds a call, villian is still drawing to the nuts and possibly an ace for the lead.

Even if villian knew hero had a set, he is going to check-call and in this case make the flush on the turn.

If hero knew villain was raising pre as weak as A7s maybe there's a case to 3 bet 88, but I really like hero's rationale for the flat.

The 3-bet pre with 88 is interesting to me and on the cusp as a decision. I could have doe that but I think due to it being multi way I was more about getting in to see a semi cheap flop. I think valid case can be made to do the three bet. I'm not exactly sure how that would changed the villains line as I would be at that point representing a big pair, maybe tens would not deter his over bet jam. It might but hard to say. He was trying to protect his draw to the nuts. Either way her would have been a big dog. It interesting none the less.
 

JustinInMN

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I'm not exactly sure how that would changed the villains line as I would be at that point representing a big pair, maybe tens would not deter his over bet jam.

The sole benefit to three betting pre with 88 is to get villian to lay down the weaker part of his range that actually would still run out well against 88. If villain doesn't lay down pre, then I don't think the hand changes.

I don't love the 3 bet pre for the reasons you originally stated. Being results oriented, we can see, yeah there's a chance villain gives up A7 and wins the pot preflop. But absent that, set and nut flush draw are just destined to get the money to the middle.
 
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