PAHWM: Tournament Post Bubble 4 Handed

Legend5555

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Continued from the same tournament as my previous PAHWM: Tournament Money Bubble.

Now down to 4 players. Hero has been very active as the chip leader, raising almost any two into short stacks that are too afraid to do anything. The previous chip leader has now busted a couple people and has chipped up to 45bb. Though HERO still has the table covered. This villain has been very aggressive the whole final table. Often raising to 4x as his open size. Though his post flop bets are more normal. Not seen him 3 bet, but only because no one other than him and HERO have really been raising pre. Other than that, have not seen him show down many hands other than pretty standard all ins against shorter stacks.

HERO has continued to open for min raises with success. Either taking it down pre, or firing c-bets against players other than VILLAIN and taking it down.

SB: 23bb
BB: 45bb (VILLAIN)
UTG: 70bb (HERO)
Button: 18bb

HERO :7c::8c: raises to 2bb
Button folds.
SB calls
BB calls

Pot 6.4bb
Eff stack: 43bb (21 with SB)
Flop: :5c::6s::3d:

SB bets 2bb
BB calls

HERO?
 

johnnyesper

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This is an interesting spot. It looks like you have a good amount of equity with a disguised OESD and a redraw to the straight flush. My first instinct is to call here to see the turn but is there any merit to raising here? Against a short stack, on the money bubble you could get jammed on which will negate your equity you had. Yeah... I think a call here is perfectly reasonable.
 

ninedeuce

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These days play mostly cash, but imagine that SB's calling range is pretty wide (but seriously capped), and BB's calling range is almost ATC (again, seriously capped).

On flop, SB donk could be anything between st8 draw to nuts. BB call more likely polarized between st8 draw and made st8 (feel like 2pr, sets raise here for protection).

I'd probably call. Certainly not folding. I'd raise here to either win now or get a free turn card, but given stack sizes, would give SB a juicy shove opportunity and not achieve my goals.
 

Legend5555

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Not getting much traction here. Oh well.

So HERO decides he is getting a great price to draw to the nuts vs two players, one of whom can really only shove or fold against HERO if HERO raises. HERO takes those great odds and calls. So...

Starting stack sizes:
SB: 23bb
BB: 45bb (VILLAIN)
UTG: 70bb (HERO)
Button: 18bb

HERO :7c::8c: raises to 2bb
Button folds.
SB calls
BB calls

Pot 6.4bb
Eff stack: 43bb (21 with SB)
Flop: :5c::6s::3d:

SB bets 2bb
BB calls
HERO calls.

Pot: 12.4bb
Eff stack: 41bb (19 with SB)
Turn: :5c: :6s: :3d: :9s:

SB checks.
BB bets 4.5bb

HERO?
 

Frogzilla

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Can’t imagine we’re floating much 9x so I just call here, let SB tag along. If we get led into again on the river, the pot will be big enough for our raise to be all-in
 

upNdown

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I say you raise. Your hand should be pretty well disguised - hopefully he levels himself into thinking you've got an A of spades? You'll lose the SB, but if you can get a call from BB and he leads the river, you're getting paid bigly.
 

Legend5555

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Continued...

Hero decides there are enough draws (now including a back door flush draw) that raising for value seems like a good idea. Plus it sets up a good shove on the river almost regardless of the card.

Starting stack sizes:
SB: 23bb
BB: 45bb (VILLAIN)
UTG: 70bb (HERO)
Button: 18bb

HERO :7c::8c: raises to 2bb
Button folds.
SB calls
BB calls

Pot 6.4bb
Eff stack: 43bb (21 with SB)
Flop: :5c::6s::3d:

SB bets 2bb
BB calls
HERO calls.

Pot: 12.4bb
Eff stack: 41bb (19 with SB)
Turn: :5c: :6s: :3d: :9s:

SB checks.
BB bets 4.5bb
Hero raises to 14bb
SB folds
BB calls

Pot: 40.4bb
Eff stack: 27bb
River: :5c: :6s: :3d: :9s: :ts:

BB snap jams for 27bb

HERO snap call? Think then call? Think then fold?
 

upNdown

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Crying call. But you have to
In a cash game, yes. In a tournament, in this spot, with those stacks? No No No.
Hero can fold here and still be a very strong second place.

Edit: A2s and A4s make a lot of sense here. Any combination of broadway spades make less sense but are possible. There's always the 78 of spades.
 
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johnnyesper

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Ugh, this spot looks miserable. as played think you did good work. The pot sized bet on the turn was a good move. There are only 12 combos of J7o that beat you but that that doesn't make much sense especially after the turn. the BB could have lower straight combos that would do this but its risky like 24o or your chopping against another 78 combo, The only thing that makes sense is a Ax or maybe Kx of spades here that can beat you. The set combos wouldn't have played the flop the same way. This is a crying call for me.
 

Legend5555

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Ugh, this spot looks miserable. as played think you did good work. The pot sized bet on the turn was a good move. There are only 12 combos of J7o that beat you but that that doesn't make much sense especially after the turn. the BB could have lower straight combos that would do this but its risky like 24o or your chopping against another 78 combo, The only thing that makes sense is a Ax or maybe Kx of spades here that can beat you. The set combos wouldn't have played the flop the same way. This is a crying call for me.
J7 isn't a straight here.
 
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I don’t think villain is shoving with a bluff with his tournament life on the line. On the turn, I might even make him make a decision for his tournament life. If he makes the call and hits, good for him. I don’t think you’re behind on the turn, and he probably knows he is, so I think you’d get a fold a large percentage of the time.
 

Legend5555

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I don’t think villain is shoving with a bluff with his tournament life on the line. On the turn, I might even make him make a decision for his tournament life. If he makes the call and hits, good for him. I don’t think you’re behind on the turn, and he probably knows he is, so I think you’d get a fold a large percentage of the time.
Why would I want a fold on the turn when I have the nuts?
 
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So that you don’t face the situation you do on the river. It had become a large enough pot for me at that point, and while I’m a writer and not a mathematician, I think taking it down on the turn increases your stack by about 25%?

If you’re committed to calling down any river card, then yeah, don’t make that move. But in this situation, I’d be happy to increase my stack a good percentage, weaken the number 2 stack a bit, and increase my dominance at the table with minimal risk.

And to be fair, I don’t fancy myself an expert player, but I am trying to get better.
 
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You could also think about it this way:

If he doesn’t hit on the river, he probably doesn’t make that bet (and if he does, much easier for you to pick off with the missed flush draw), and he won’t call any large river bets by you, either. You’re probably not going to win much.

By shoving on the turn, you polarize your range, and he may call you down with the flush draw, especially if he thinks his Ace high might be good for some reason, so you at least have the chance to win those chips if he does.

If he folds, a nice pot taken down easily.
 

LotsOfChips

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Why would I want a fold on the turn when I have the nuts?
Well, you don't really have the nuts. What you have is the best possible hand AT THE MOMENT. Any spade on the River means that you no longer have the nuts. So you betting large on the turn will either induce the flush draw to fold (winning you a decent size pot), or putting him at risk of busting out in order to chase the flush draw.

Now you're sitting there wondering if you should call HIS all in bet, knowing that he might have the nuts, but you sure as heck don't.

(Edit - I take the nuts to mean a hand that can't be beaten, even with cards to come. If your definition is different, then sure, you had the nuts on the turn, but now you don't)
 
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Legend5555

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You could also think about it this way:

If he doesn’t hit on the river, he probably doesn’t make that bet (and if he does, much easier for you to pick off with the missed flush draw), and he won’t call any large river bets by you, either. You’re probably not going to win much.

By shoving on the turn, you polarize your range, and he may call you down with the flush draw, especially if he thinks his Ace high might be good for some reason, so you at least have the chance to win those chips if he does.

If he folds, a nice pot taken down easily.
So you are advocating for jamming 41bb over a 4.5bb bet into a current pot of 12.4bb. Or what results in a bet of 36.5bb into 21.4bb pot? More than 1.5x pot. So opponent has to call 36.5bb to win 57.9bb.

What hands realistically call that bet with their tournament life on the line?
 
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I think it depends on what you want to do. I would want to take the pot down right there, probably. If you want to get get max value, maybe this isn't the best approach, but I also think it is the least risky approach. If you want max value, do what you did and check raise. I'd have probably sized up a bit more - he had pretty good odds to call.

What I'm saying is at this point in the tournament, with your position, chip lead, etc., I'd be happy to take it down. I don't want to get into a situation where the other big stack and I are taking huge chunks out of each other right now. Take a nice pot, deliver a blow to the second big stack, and don't take the chance of him jamming on you and putting you in a tough spot. I think you're better off being the one to put the pressure on him before the river.

Like I said, if the river is a blank, I'm not sure how much value you can get out of him anyway. If the spade hits, as it did, you're sitting there wondering.
 

ninedeuce

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Ack, tough spot.

Yes, something like :as::5s:, :as::4s: or :as::3s: makes a lot of sense here. So do :5s::4s: or :4s::3s:.

Villain having 87 highly unlikely, he would've shoved turn over your raise.

What else makes sense given villain's line that you're beating? Hands like JJ, TT, 99 would've likely raised pre. Would he have floated turn with T9, and now thinks his backdoor 2pr is good? Or turning it in to a bluff?

Villain can feel confident given your line that you don't have spades in your hand, so maybe increases likelihood of bluff. Not sure what he'd been sticking around with that missed, though. Maybe 77? 44?
 

Legend5555

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Ack, tough spot.

Yes, something like :as::5s:, :as::4s: or :as::3s: makes a lot of sense here. So do :5s::4s: or :4s::3s:.

Villain having 87 highly unlikely, he would've shoved turn over your raise.

What else makes sense given villain's line that you're beating? Hands like JJ, TT, 99 would've likely raised pre. Would he have floated turn with T9, and now thinks his backdoor 2pr is good? Or turning it in to a bluff?

Villain can feel confident given your line that you don't have spades in your hand, so maybe increases likelihood of bluff. Not sure what he'd been sticking around with that missed, though. Maybe 77? 44?
Great analysis!

And here is the conclusion, but first some more analysis.

The fact that I have no blockers especially the :7s: is a bit concerning.

Most non-flush value hands would likely have gotten it in on the turn or at least raised flop: 56, 33, 55, 66, 99, 47s, 96s, 78. I think given stack sizes and pot odds preflop, that all these hands are possible. But all these would have played more aggressively at some point before the river.

While the spade hands are pretty consistent with his line thus far: A3, A4, A5, K3, K4, K5, 34, 35, 45, 57, 79. There are maybe some offsuit 4x hands that play this way as well.

Obviously in the moment it's impossible to do the math. So the question is given my turn raise and the current pot size and bet, did I commit myself to calling this or not? At what raise size on turn do I 100% commit myself regardless of the river?

If we assume I am going to call or jam 100% of spade rivers, then I gave the opponent the correct implied odds given my raise size. Though not by a lot. I would actually have needed to raise to about 12bb to make his call incorrect even for the implied odds.

Playing online doesn't leave the proper time to really think through things. Live and for higher stakes, I would have taken time with this decision. But, I thought I had raised enough on the turn to commit to calling any river. While I get some people would rather preserve their stack, I generally don't make that a top priority especially when I have the lead and can't bust. I'd rather maximize my chances of winning the most chips as winning this hand and busting the #2 in chips would have made me nearly a lock to win the tournament. And losing wouldn't cripple me.

TL;DR

I snap called and lost to :4s::5s:.

Though I still had 25bb and went on to get 2nd.
 
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