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grebe

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We are OOP with only $48 left into $75. Are we folding many turns? What if villain checks back?

I agree that it's hard to get much value here. But being OOP is really handcuffing us. The SPR is very awkward. No matter when we get it in, the hands that beat us are never folding. But I'm not convinced villain folds a J or QQ to a jam here. And they're just aren't many bluffs to be had here. Even 56 would be close to having to call a jam given the SPR.
I think you are undervaluing stone cold bluffs....like AK that doesnt want to get pushed around. AJ thinks he outflopped AK or AQs...maybe JJ or TT. It's looking like the money is going in whether we do it or he does it. We are in better shape if he does it.

Edit: AK is a bad example....V doesnt have that hand very often with no 4!
 
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Legend5555

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I think you are undervaluing stone cold bluffs....like AK that doesnt want to get pushed around. AJ thinks he outflopped AK or AQs...maybe JJ or TT. It's looking like the money is going in whether we do it or he does it. We are in better shape if he does it.

Edit: AK is a bad example....V doesnt have that hand very often with no 4!
You think villain is going ham with TT? AJ is never folding to a jam at this point. Sets are getting our money anyway. Even with the description of villain making moves, that doesn't mean he just goes crazy in a 3 bet pot. I'd have to see it have happened before to think he's just totally airballing.

I can't imagine an even remotely balanced bluff to value range in this scenario on this board. Thus, I think the villain is heavily weighted toward value over bluffs in his range. So better to not give him the change to check back something like QJ on the turn. We are OOP, just get the money in now and avoid any weird decisions on the turn. It's not like we are folding any turn anyway. No hand villain has for value, even top pair, is going to fold given the pot size.
 

grebe

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You think villain is going ham with TT? AJ is never folding to a jam at this point. Sets are getting our money anyway. Even with the description of villain making moves, that doesn't mean he just goes crazy in a 3 bet pot. I'd have to see it have happened before to think he's just totally airballing.

I can't imagine an even remotely balanced bluff to value range in this scenario on this board. Thus, I think the villain is heavily weighted toward value over bluffs in his range. So better to not give him the change to check back something like QJ on the turn. We are OOP, just get the money in now and avoid any weird decisions on the turn. It's not like we are folding any turn anyway. No hand villain has for value, even top pair, is going to fold given the pot size.
Maybe he jams TT, maybe not. We can still jam river if he checks back turn. What are we afraid of here? Not much....he either has us or he doesnt. Only an awful (good or bad) river card is going to change the outcome of the hand. If he checks turn, we can assume any non-ace is safe and we can lead out. This isnt an all or nothing chance on the turn, no need in blowing him off worse hands here. We still have two more chances to get money in.
 

grebe

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You know what hand would play this way that makes perfect sense? JTs/QJs. If I have to pick one specific hand to put V on, I'll pick JTs. How would JTs play if we:

-jammed flop after a 3!
-called flop and checked turn to V (assuming no over card)
 

Legend5555

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You know what hand would play this way that makes perfect sense? JTs/QJs. If I have to pick one specific hand to put V on, I'll pick JTs. How would JTs play if we:

-jammed flop after a 3!
-called flop and checked turn to V (assuming no over card)
So do you think JT is more likely to call our shove now, or on the river? Because I think it's more likely to call now before potential overs come.
 

grebe

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I think JT is more likely to fold to a flop shove from us, but "value bet" the turn if we flat.
 

BamaT8ter

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Sorry, guys. Didn't see that anyone was posting in the thread. Thought you all didn't think the hand was very interesting.

UTG -- Fold
UTG + 1 -- Villain 1 ($152.01) -- Raise to $1.50
UTG + 2 -- Fold
UTG + 3 -- Fold
Lo Jack -- Fold
Hi Jack -- Villain 2 ($72.67) -- Call
Button -- Fold
SB -- Hero ($83.64)-- KcKd -- Reraise to $5.00
BB -- Fold
Villain 1 ($150.51) -- Calls
Villain 2 ($71.17) -- Calls

Pot is $15.50
Flop: Jc-4d-3s

Hero ($78.89) — Bets $10
Villain 1 ($150.51) — Raise to $30
Villain 2 ($71.17) — Folds

Pot = $55.50
Hero ($68.89) — ?

So, based on my experience with Villain, here was my take:
  • I excluded AA or KK from his range because I felt like Villain 1 would have 4 bet there to keep Villain 2 from tagging along into the pot. He might, however, call instead of re-raise with QQ or lower pocket pairs.
  • I excluded 44-22 because, in my experience, Villain 1 wouldn't have called my 3 bet with those hands.
  • Villain might have called the three-bet with suited connectors.
  • Villain might have called the three-bet with AK-AJ and perhaps KQ.
  • Post-flop, I would expect Villain to trap with a set, especially top set, though not always.
  • There is a real possibility that Villain would raise to $30 with any hand he called with pre-flop just to defend against a c-bet.
So I'm left with a real possibility that I'm crushed by a set of Jacks, but also that I'm still way ahead. The two hands I'm really concerned about are JJ and 56s. But I'm a huge favorite over AJ, QQ, TT, 99, and the "air" he might have made this play with. I don't think I can ever fold here.

So, raise or call? My concern calling is the size of the pot. If I call, I have $48.89 left and the pot is $75.50. If I call and then jam the turn if a blank hits, I'll be laying Villain about 2.5 to 1 to call--just about right if he has a combo draw. Also, if he's played a hand like 56, a 2 or 7 on the turn isn't going to look all that scary. If he has JJ and I shove when a blank hits the turn or whatever, I'm still crushed. If I really think he has JJ, I should fold now, and I don't think I can ever fold. So, why not force straight draws to pay the maximum and punish QQ and AJ that just might call. Also, in the unlikely scenario that we're sharing KK, I've at least created some equity by creating a possibility that he just might fold. I don't feel like I'm missing much value from sub-JJ pocket pairs, because I don't think they're ever calling another big bet.

So Hero ($68.89) --- Goes all in for $68.89
Villain 1 ($150.51) --- Calls

Pot is $173.28
Flop: Jc-4d-3s
Turn: 3d
River: Ah

Hero shows KK for two pair -- Kings and Threes
Villain shows JJ for a full hours -- Jacks Full of Threes

Hero heads to the virtual cage to reload.

So, is there any realistic way I avoid going broke here?
 
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grebe

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If I call and then jam the turn if a blank hits, I'll be laying Villain about 2.5 to 1 to call--just about right if he has a combo draw.
There are no combo draws....best draw he can have is a straight draw....8 outs.

So, is there any realistic way I avoid going broke here?
No. He had the one hand possible to beat you (if you eliminated 44-22). This is more bad beat story than strategy it seems.

EDIT: I personally would have let him do the betting on turn/river to keep his bluffs in, but against this hand in this spot...yeah, I am calling it off.
 

BamaT8ter

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There are no combo draws....best draw he can have is a straight draw....8 outs.

What I’m thinking of here is something like 56s with back door flush. So, for example if he’d held 5d6d, then the 3d on the turn gives him both straight and flush possibilities.
 

Jimulacrum

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So, is there any realistic way I avoid going broke here?
Post-flop, no. He flopped the set on a board that otherwise favored your hand, and you had to give him action due to pot and stack sizes.

However, there was a way to play this hand better so that V1 couldn't slip in there with a smaller pair and successfully set-mine you:

Raise more preflop.

When you 3-bet it to only $5 instead of, say, $10, you offered him ~22.9:1 stack odds, which is more than sufficient to chase a set with any pair in the hole. Raising to $10 would have offered him ~9.4:1, which is only a little better than the 7.5:1 odds of flopping a set. We can call it 10:1 if you want, since there's some dead money in the pot.

That small margin is easily wiped out by the fact that sometimes he'll flop a set and not get paid off, or will flop a set and lose anyway. Calling here would be a mistake for him, or at best a very marginal play. Maybe raising to $11 or $12 would be slightly better, but I think $10 is enough to make the spot awkward for your opponent. Putting your opponents in awkward spots is basically always good.

On this one hand, sure, if he calls the $10, he hits the set and gets paid off. But you can't use information you didn't have to make the decision.

Over the long run, he's not going to be able to profit by calling that $10 to set-mine. He'll whiff the vast majority of the time and have to fold (or perhaps pay another bet or two), and he won't get the kind of return he needs to justify the preflop call. That's where most of your value is in a setup like KK against JJ, since you've tipped your hand with the 3-bet and probably won't make much post-flop because your opponent is rightly scared of an overpair.

Of course, he could instead reraise and lose even more that way, getting his money in as a 4:1 dog. Basically his only correct move will be to fold and give up the $3+ in the pot, which sounds like a crap outcome for you but really isn't that bad either.
 

Moxie Mike

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Post-flop, no. He flopped the set on a board that otherwise favored your hand, and you had to give him action due to pot and stack sizes.

However, there was a way to play this hand better so that V1 couldn't slip in there with a smaller pair and successfully set-mine you:

Raise more preflop.

What Jim said.

So the fact that you're asking 'is there any way to avoid going broke here' tells me you could use a bit of a primer on EV as it applies to NLHE.

The answer to your question is yes - your best bet to avoid going broke would have been jamming preflop. But is that wise?

The point of NLHE cash games isn't to win every pot you enter - it's to maximize your EV in every situation you're in. This reminds me of a hand that was posted last year... I think the OP would benefit from reading through that discussion.

The only thing I want to add to Jim's remarks is that you were presented with an opportunity to amplify your opponent(s) mistakes by betting more preflop. The more money you can get your opponents to put into the pot while holding an inferior hand, the better your EV is. Yeah your opponent drew out this time, but that's not where the focus should be if you're truly looking to get better at NLHE cash games. The thing is, unless you're a 100% favorite, the suckouts HAVE to happen. They can't not happen.
 

Legend5555

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I don't think you could have done anything to make your opponent make a clear mistake in this hand. You would have had to make it at least $9 pre to even get close to him making a clear mistake. And that's if he assumes you always have a bigger pair and you will always stack off if he flops a set. And that's just an oversized raise at that point. Not egregiously big, but you'd have to do that with a lot of your range to protect your 3 betting range. And IMO, that's just too big a raise.

The basic idea is that if your opponent can call your raise and win an extra 10x that raise off of you when he flops a set, then it's usually correct to call and set mine. That's just a rough guide though. The better the player, the bigger the amount you need to win to make it profitable to set mine. So in this case, if you made it $9 pre, villain has to call an extra $7.50 and you have about $73 behind your raise. So at about the break even point for at mining. But obviously, the deeper we get, the harder it out to raise that big without looking ridiculous and unbalanced. If you were also $150 deep with villain, you can't just reraise to like $15-17 over a $1.50 bet unless you are willing to do that with all your 3 bets. And at that point the raise is so big that your opponent isn't going to call with the garbage you'd like him to call with.

Long story short, your raise pre was too small. But even had you made it a normal size like $7-8, he still is going to call mostly correctly, and you are still going to go broke on this board. It just happens sometimes.
 

BamaT8ter

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My focus with my question about avoiding going broke was whether anyone finds a fold when Villain pumps it to $30 on the flop. The answer seems to be: no. Overplaying big pairs is a common leak, and one I’ve been more than a little guilty of myself. Always nice to have some outside perspectives.

I appreciate everyone’s comments.
 
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