PAHWM: KK vs Backraise

Anthony Martino

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def was screaming Aces. But you have to call $12.25 more with implied odds to get his remaining $64.55 plus what is currently in the pot before you call the raise which is $42.60

So you're calling $12.25 more with a shot to win $107.15 because it's unlikely villian is not getting the rest of his stack in post-flop

Villian has essentially given you the information to play perfectly against him and you have position

I might just call the raise here. If we hit we are likely getting paid. If the board comes scarily coordinated (flush and straight that villain doesn't have a shot at) we may be able to outdraw him cheaply if he returns to passive mode and tries to check it down

Only risk is making a flush but him sharing the suit
 

DrStrange

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Let's say hero calls $12.25 hoping to win a $59 pot plus $64.50 implied. Something a bit worse than 4-1 direct odds plus a bit better than 5-1 implied odds.

Is the plan to set mine, folding misses except for highly coordinated drawing flops? < noting that Hero is not getting proper odds to draw unless we assume villain folds his aces some of the time > This seems to be pretty close to but not quite breakeven just as a set mining operation - i.e. a serious mistake but not a huge mistake. It is a terrible plan if hero jams preflop and gets called by aces.

And let's not kid ourselves - limp (trapping) / three bet (min-raise) / five bet (min-raise) from a passive player is always aces unless she/he is on tilt. Hero asked the question about aces and got the answer. It cost $13.50 to make the fourth bet. Hero should not need to spend more money on the hand.

DrStrange
 

Leonard

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I agree with most everything said thus far. Cash NLHE 300+ BB deep requires different thinking. In this hand, you have to fold. If Villain doesn't have AA, then you have been outplayed. If you never fold a winner, you cannot play winning poker. And you didn't fold one here.
 

Jimulacrum

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def was screaming Aces. But you have to call $12.25 more with implied odds to get his remaining $64.55 plus what is currently in the pot before you call the raise which is $42.60

So you're calling $12.25 more with a shot to win $107.15 because it's unlikely villian is not getting the rest of his stack in post-flop

Villian has essentially given you the information to play perfectly against him and you have position

I might just call the raise here. If we hit we are likely getting paid. If the board comes scarily coordinated (flush and straight that villain doesn't have a shot at) we may be able to outdraw him cheaply if he returns to passive mode and tries to check it down

Only risk is making a flush but him sharing the suit
This was one thing I thought about. Even if we assume I get his whole stack in the deal, that's about 8.5:1 overall odds, where I'm about 7.5:1 to flop a set. But there are other considerations.

First, I suspect I won't get his whole stack every time. Some boards will really scare him off. And a small percent of the time I flop a set, he'll flop one too (and seeing another ace makes me less certain that he has AA, so even harder to fold). Sometimes he'll run out a set on later cards, or hit a flush or straight. In those cases, I not only don't realize the full implied odds but am losing that extra ~$60.

The math was a little messy to do in my head in the moment. At a glance, it looked like I was right on the cusp of getting odds to set-mine, and that's not quite enough for me. I need to be getting decent overlay, for the reasons I've stated above.

Still, it was a close decision. Like I said earlier, it was the thinnest fold of KK I've ever made. Usually there's some large bet to me, and the question of set-mining is completely null. This was a pretty odd case.
 

Moxie Mike

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Haven't read the results past the preflop 5-bet action.

It's always perplexing when players min-raise in NLHE regardless of the amount. I've come to the general conclusion in these circumstances that you can't really assign a meaning to the betting pattern... it's probably just a reflex and not the actions of a thinking player with respect to stack sizes, size of the pot, etc.

Given the depth of the stacks, I like a smooth call to the unexpected limp-reraise. HERO holds a very-strong-yet-difficult-to-release hand. If you flop an overpair, you'll have no information as to where you stand and might end up calling off 3 pot-sized bets to get to showdown. Better to keep the pot small when in spots where you suspect you're probably beat but really can't fold.

As played, I'm smoothcalling the 5-bet pre hoping to spike a set which will certainly reward HERO with Villain's stack. Given the passive nature of the opponent as described, they might even bet small enough on the flop that it might make sense to peel the turn too.

***Reading the results now***

Nice fold in the sense that HERO got away from a trap hand when HERO suspected he was crushed, but I still advocate taking a flop here. The price is $12.25 to win about $94 (pot plus implied)... so HERO is getting about the right price to set-mine. Also, a scary-ish flop (single suited or paired board for example) might also slow Villain down, especially if HERO calls a flop bet. KK vs. AA still has 20% equity - HERO left that equity on the table by not at least taking a flop.
 
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