PAHWM: AJs in UTG (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

25NL Zone on Ignition. Fast fold 6max no HUDs no individual reads

V is effective stack in BB with 101 BB.
Hero opens to 2.5BB in UTG with AJs. This is a standard open size for this game.

BB defends. Flop comes. Villain X. Hero?

 

[JustinInMN]

Villain checked? I think I would be betting about 2-3 Bb here. King is good for your range and you have good equity with a draw to the nuts.

You can certainly call a check raise if villain does that. You might win with betting two barrels if called. You might make a flush and get paid. Betting flop serves all of those outcomes, checking doesn't.

 

[boltonguy]

Villain checked?

Yes - apologies for that oversight. BB checks to me.

 

[boltonguy]

I agree - this is a must bet flop for my range and my actual hand. Normally I would cbet 30% pot on a dry board, but with the FDFD I size up to 1/2 potish or 3BB. V calls.

Turn is Ah. V checks - Hero?

 

[colter ripton]

Id do another half ish pot bet.

 

[boltonguy]

Hero does bet 1/2 pot and V X/R to 3.5x. Hero?

 

[grebe]

Agree with all thus far. We are calling this bet...no reason to do anything else. We are not comfortable, but could river him if we are behind. Lets river a diamond.

 

[Legend5555]

Pre Flop:

I'd cbet about 2bb. Other than the flush draw and gutters, this is a pretty dry flop. You are actually holding a key card for a lot of the gutshots that would peel here with the Jd. With nut diamonds, you also aren't afraid of them peeling with a flush draw. So I don't think you need to size very big here as I assumed you would want to bet this flop with a lot, if not all, of your UTG opening range.

Flop:

I think I like just continuing to bet. You should be expected to bet when the A comes as it's good for your range. Plus, you don't really care about getting x/r as you hold the nut flush draw. It's hard to imagine a hand villain raises this turn though unless it's specifically a slowplayed 99 or 22. So I feel like they are either going to fold to the double barrel a lot, or call with a worse diamond draw or a stubborn Kx. As far as sizing... I'm not sure. If we are only thinking of the villains range, then you probably don't need to bet huge because you want to keep in Kx and flush draws. I think most of your double barrel range here is going to be flush draws (most of which are combo draws or have now made top pair), sets, and top 2. That's a pretty strong range, so I think that would make us want to be larger.

Anyway, If you bet and get raised, you just call and evaluate river.

 

[Legend5555]

To expand on my call and evaluate:

Villain has very few bluffs here. You are blocking the Jd, so he can only really have KdXd or QdTd as bluff. And I just don't see KdXd raising this turn, that hand has too much showdown value. So you are really looking at just 22, 99, A9s, maybe K9s. Though I think K9s is getting a bit optimistic check raising here. I guess there could maybe be JhTh, QhTh, QhJh for bluffs too. But given this player pool, I just can't imagine them getting that creative. So it really seems like value, or the random total spaz bluff. Getting 2.6 to 1 on the call, in position, and you can probably pick off some bluffs on river or value bet effectively when you hit. So pretty easy call.

 

[boltonguy]

Agree that this is a pretty easy call. V jams river. Can we find a call here or are we folding?

 

[JustinInMN]

Whoa we are rushing this now we are on the river.

So on the turn I like the bet again and I don't mind calling the check raise. I think we are high enough in range to defend this, but not high enough where we expect to be "paid off" by too many lesser hands.

I think you play this to station unless we make the flush. maybe we consider folding the river if the board pairs kings.

Bd flush hits the river, I still think we win often enough on a call, though aj is far from a sure winner.

 

[Coyote]

I would have bet strongly the turn to end that shit right there, if possible, one way or another.
Now, I 'm folding.

 

[grebe]

vomit. Overbet feels like a straight up steal....but with the c/r on the turn, my money is on 2 pair or a set. Reluctantly fold, not surprised when V shows us 99

 

[Legend5555]

I would have bet strongly the turn to end that shit right there, if possible, one way or another.
Now, I 'm folding.

What does "betting strong" accomplish? If we get called out raised, how confident are we then?

 

[grebe]

I would have bet strongly the turn to end that shit right there, if possible, one way or another.
Now, I 'm folding.

So, you would fold out all bluffs and stack off anything that bets you. Nobody is calling a reraise that you beat.

 

[Coyote]

What does "betting strong" accomplish? If we get called out raised, how confident are we then?

We fold at that stage, then. That's why I said "one way or another". I meant something like 3/5 of the pot.

 

[Legend5555]

We only need to call with the top 37% of hands that get here. It's AJ in the top 37% of hands we have here? Certainly we can have some rivered flushes with QJh, QTh, JTh, we can have AA, KK, 99, AK. That's a lot of better hands. Plus, we are blocking 2 of the obvious bluff candidates in JTd and QJd.

Seems like we just fold, and if villain is a total spaz and we missed it, oh well.

 

[boltonguy]

I folded. I think this spot is under-bluffed given the X/R on the Ah turn. In my experience they have it 80%+ of the time and calling is lighting $$ on fire.

I downloaded the hand history expecting to see the flush and well look at this ... I guess he could be confident that I wasnt likely to have the BDFD as the Ax and Kx suited combos are hard blocked by the board, leaving QhJh. He probably raised thinking I had a naked Ax or Kx and he could jam if either flush came in.

I put this in the solver and the 54s is a solid turn raise here for V (90% raise / 10% fold).
My combo of AJs is a pure fold.

 

[grebe]

I agree with your fold, obviously. I will say that this spot is not as under bluffed as people give it credit for, especially in fast fold. My experience with fast fold is that people play much tighter pre flop, and really go for the win post flop once they commit to it. This is why I feel that fast fold/zone is very tough to beat.

I am looking for those players that are making more mistakes preflop, which leads to even more mistakes post flop....which is why I play Limit or tourneys online.

 

[Legend5555]

I folded. I think this spot is under-bluffed given the X/R on the Ah turn. In my experience they have it 80%+ of the time and calling is lighting $$ on fire.

I downloaded the hand history expecting to see the flush and well look at this ... I guess he could be confident that I wasnt likely to have the BDFD as the Ax and Kx suited combos are hard blocked by the board, leaving QhJh. He probably raised thinking I had a naked Ax or Kx and he could jam if either flush came in.

View attachment 755063

I put this in the solver and the 54s is a solid turn raise here for V (90% raise / 10% fold).
My combo of AJs is a pure fold.

View attachment 755077

View attachment 755086

I feel like an idiot for missing that as a possible bluff. A good one considering the zero showdown value. Still surprising for that player pool though. I almost feel like the "player" is using RTA to make that move. Or is... you know, a bot.

 

[boltonguy]

Yeah I think that bluff is a level above the 25NL zone player pool. If you're pulling that stuff you should be playing higher stakes.

 

[LeLe]

It kind of late but that a very good bluff from the V

I will put the V at A2 / A9 2 pair or a Heart Flush draw when he C/R us at turn, unfortunate with us holding 2 diamond i will not put V at a diamond draw.

With the V jam at the river, AJ really is just a buff catcher at that point. Being unfamiliar with V i will fold this hand 9 times out of 10 as well