Well, roughly, the pot is now 108 BBs, and hero's stack should be 57 BBs (covered by Villain).
Getting about 3:1 (57/(108+57)), so we need to be good ~25% of the time, right? His no-brainer value bets that might take this line are 44, 33, and QJ. Since he's laggy, I wouldn't be surprised if he has all QJo in this position. So 9 total combos (three 44s, three 33s, QdJd, QcJd, QsJd). If he's a sicko with J4-suited or J3-suited, good for him, but I'm not including those in thinking through the spot. Because the stacks are so shallow, I wouldn't be surprised if villain is going for thin value with
worse, namely KhJd or JdTh, blocking hero's flush combos and hoping to get hero called by AA, KK, AQ, or KQ. If he runs into a nut flush or boat or hero's JJ quads, so be it, he's not getting punished for it too badly. With villain's flushes, I honestly don't know how many I'm expecting to see with Ah in our hand and Qh and Jh on the board. The turn raise was relatively small at only 2.5x, so maybe he did choose to continue in position with all of his flush draws, but all his heart combos besides KhTh are just way too easy for him to be overflushed by your AhXh hands or for some of his flush outs to be dirty and boat up hero's overpairs or JX hands. But even with an inordinately expansive flush range, that should only look something like 9 combos (KhTh, Kh9h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 7h6h, and 6h5h), right?
So, all told, I think villain should have 9 or 10 (including KhTh) value combos we lose to, a couple of value combos we're beating, chopping with three combos of AxJd. If villain has
all those flush combos, we only need villain to bluff six hands. I think the actual number of flushes has gotta be less.
Shrug call.
Edit: I also think the river SPR shows a sizing mistake with the turn raise. I think our options on the turn are call or shove. Since we block the nut flush draw, I'm worried a turn raise or shove is funneling villain's range more and more to 44 and 33. Sometimes villain will have a worse J and we party, but he should be betting all of his Jx when checked to on most rivers after we check-call the turn (maybe he checks behind the Qh river, maybe not) and we can capitalize then.