PAHWM: AJo in Late Position, at 5/10c NLHE online

Coyote

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Nine-handed, effective stacks rather close to 100BBs, Hero has been playing loose with a VPIP/PFR of 30/22, has won several small pots and is sitting at 110BBs.
Folds to Hero in the Hijack position with :ah::js:.
Hero makes a standard raise to 3BBs.
The CO, a LAG player with a marginally bigger stack (125BBs) calls. The BTN and the Blinds fold. Pot 7.5BBs

Flop::4d::jh::3h:
Hero bets 2/3 pot (5BBs) with top pair, top kicker. Villain calls.

Turn: :jc:
Hero?
 

Jasap47

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Perhaps a check might induce a bet from the LAG, u have the board crushed imo, u have the A of hearts so lots of flush draw combos are gone. If he bets say 10 bb on the turn, call and fire any non heart/straight river. IF he has set, thats online poker every hand is a cooler lol.
 

Eriks

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Depends on the player for me. Against an active player checking to induce seems like a good move and vs stations just keep betting.

I’m just calling turn once we check as you’ll probably have few bluffs and it’s a good idea to protect the overpair part of your range that is going to want to check/call turn as well.

River might be tricky oop. Leading looks weird. I’m leaning towards check/calling or check/raising depending on river card
 

AR_poker

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Indeed, hero checks the turn.
Villain bets the pot!
Hero?
I like check-calling. Villain's range that calls the flop should be sets, all pocket pairs, whatever Jx he has, Ah4h and whatever other heart draws he has, and whatever 65-suited he has. We're doing great against that range. Sure he'll raise some of those some of the time, but heads up in position in a spot where neither of you is deep he's got the luxury of calling. Him betting pot on the turn should be polarizing his range to draws and boats (I don't think he should have J4 or J3, but sometimes LAGs gonna LAG), but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see hands betting this size that shouldn't be here. Things like TT - 77 trying to deny equity to your AKs and AQs, or maybe he's turning those hands into bluffs to target your overpairs. The nice thing about your turn check (which I probably would've bet in the moment, but I actually think checking protects your range nicely) is that it looks like you have showdown value/an overpair that's checking to race to showdown now. The Jc turn should hit both of your ranges, so it could make sense for him to try to rep this card with his bluffs and shell off on the river, too. If we bet the turn and call a raise, villain is going to put us pretty comfortably on Jx, so he might just shut down his bluffs and only fire with value. I don't know that I have a check-raising range here. On safe rivers I'm checking if I think villain will fire again. There's some merit to block-betting the river, particularly if you think it can induce a bluff raise from villain, but that's obviously higher variance.
 

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Hero, believing that Villain is most probably semi-bluffing with a straight or flush or straight flush draw, tries to end that shit now, by raising x2.5
Villain calls! Now that's bad news. And the pot has grown larger than both players' stacks.

River is :qh:, so final board :4d::jh::3h::jc::qh:

Hero checks.
Villain bets all-in.
Hero?
 

AR_poker

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Hero, believing that Villain is most probably semi-bluffing with a straight or flush or straight flush draw, tries to end that shit now, by raising x2.5
Villain calls! Now that's bad news. And the pot has grown larger than both players' stacks.

River is :qh:, so final board :4d::jh::3h::jc::qh:

Hero checks.
Villain bets all-in.
Hero?
After the turn action, what are the stack sizes and pot size? I've lost the plot a little numerically.
 

JustinInMN

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I think with you having the ace of hearts you have to call here.
Yeah I think I agree, especially with :qh: and :jh: on board as well. Unless villian has all :kh:-xh: in range and some lower hearts, there aren't a lot of flushes.

QJ a distinct possibility too as @Trihonda pointed out.

I think I call here, but I know we will be shown villain has a winner a good hunk of the time.
 

Eriks

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Weird. Is he really potting the turn and calling your 2,5x raise with a not-nut FD on a paired board? Another more likely hand that beat us is QJ of diamonds. I’ve seen enough weird shit to be calling this though getting 3-1, especially when holding the A of hearts, but I expect to lose a fair amount of the time.

A set should raise the flop, a FD shouldn’t call the turn raise but then again a worse hand shouldn’t value shove the river so I dunno. Whenever I’m confused like this I usually end up calling.
 

JustinInMN

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Let's think about Hero's distribution here. Hero could probably have :ah::kh: and even :ah::th: Hero could have any of the QQ combos as well. I think AJ is about the 4th best holding. Not the top of the distribution, but I can only come up with 5 combos better on hero's line.

And again, pot-odds say we only have to be good 25% of the time here.

Villain doesn't know we hold :ah: so he may be overestimating how many heart combos villain would have to assume if he decided just to bluff at it here. If hero folds AJ, then villain would be correct to pretty much rip it on this river every time, hero won't come up with enough calling hands.
 

AR_poker

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Well, roughly, the pot is now 108 BBs, and hero's stack should be 57 BBs (covered by Villain).
Getting about 3:1 (57/(108+57)), so we need to be good ~25% of the time, right? His no-brainer value bets that might take this line are 44, 33, and QJ. Since he's laggy, I wouldn't be surprised if he has all QJo in this position. So 9 total combos (three 44s, three 33s, QdJd, QcJd, QsJd). If he's a sicko with J4-suited or J3-suited, good for him, but I'm not including those in thinking through the spot. Because the stacks are so shallow, I wouldn't be surprised if villain is going for thin value with worse, namely KhJd or JdTh, blocking hero's flush combos and hoping to get hero called by AA, KK, AQ, or KQ. If he runs into a nut flush or boat or hero's JJ quads, so be it, he's not getting punished for it too badly. With villain's flushes, I honestly don't know how many I'm expecting to see with Ah in our hand and Qh and Jh on the board. The turn raise was relatively small at only 2.5x, so maybe he did choose to continue in position with all of his flush draws, but all his heart combos besides KhTh are just way too easy for him to be overflushed by your AhXh hands or for some of his flush outs to be dirty and boat up hero's overpairs or JX hands. But even with an inordinately expansive flush range, that should only look something like 9 combos (KhTh, Kh9h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 7h6h, and 6h5h), right?

So, all told, I think villain should have 9 or 10 (including KhTh) value combos we lose to, a couple of value combos we're beating, chopping with three combos of AxJd. If villain has all those flush combos, we only need villain to bluff six hands. I think the actual number of flushes has gotta be less.

Shrug call.

Edit: I also think the river SPR shows a sizing mistake with the turn raise. I think our options on the turn are call or shove. Since we block the nut flush draw, I'm worried a turn raise or shove is funneling villain's range more and more to 44 and 33. Sometimes villain will have a worse J and we party, but he should be betting all of his Jx when checked to on most rivers after we check-call the turn (maybe he checks behind the Qh river, maybe not) and we can capitalize then.
 
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Coyote

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Hero calls and loses his stack to Villain's 3-3:)
His full house was made on the turn.

Thx everybody for your thoughts! :):)
 

JustinInMN

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Even knowing the result I think the call is still okay, especially against an internet unknown.

Some guy might just shove thinking there are very few flushes hero can have and will throw anything away that isn't a flush. Hero was unlucky to have 3 jacks, here, Definitely an easier laydown with AA or KK.
 

Coyote

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Even knowing the result I think the call is still okay, especially against an internet unknown.

Some guy might just shove thinking there are very few flushes hero can have and will throw anything away that isn't a flush. Hero was unlucky to have 3 jacks, here, Definitely an easier laydown with AA or KK.
Sure, unlucky to have had trips. I 'm just a couple of levels above clueless, which means I still wouldn't ever call an all-in with just an overpair (a "contactless" one as we call it in Greek, meaning no contact/connection with the board).:D

What hero "could" have done better would be, maybe to not raise the turn; just call.
Then, a huge bet by the Villain on the river would have given much worse odds, and might have seemed more suspect.
 

Jasap47

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I knew it was gonna be either 33 or 44, f#@k online poker, if a 7 comes on turn you get away from hand with ease, but of course you hit the one card to make u commit. Coincidence?
 

Coyote

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While setting up volatile hands produces big pots and rakes, I don't think it's possible for any site to do that.
It would require poker-knowledgable people intervening all the time to the software, which, even if possible, would be uneconomical.
What could be really rigged about online poker is collusion.
Of course, any reputable site will not let two players play from the same IP address.
This doesn't mean two "confederates" cannot manage to eventually be seated at the same table while always talking among them on the phone or something. I guess.
I played late at night last night, so most Europeans had gone to sleep, and all my opponents were either Canadian or Brazilian.
Happily, no Cubans. @Anthony Martino :p:p
 

AnteAndy

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Hero calls and loses his stack to Villain's 3-3:)
His full house was made on the turn.

Thx everybody for your thoughts! :):)
Kinda figured he may have had 33 or 44. Calling flop giving you more rope if you had top pair, though he could've been scared of flush getting there but maybe hitting a boat later on will save him, and he got it in the turn. He may have put you on a flush draw even as to his big bets on the last two streets.

Some LAGs I know bet big when they got it, and keep the aggression if his opponent calls. But this could be either or and it's a difficult spot on the river.
 
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