PAHWM: ACR Blitz 3 bet with 56s 200+bb deep (1 Viewer)

[Legend5555]

ACR Blitz 6max
Villain is a TAG playing 20vpip/16pfr over 200 hands
And has a 3 bet% of 7.8. Not enough data on 4bet% to be useful.
No specific notes.

Effective Stack 217bb

VILLAIN (HJ) raises to 2.2bb
HERO (B) w/ 3 bets to 8.6bb
Folds back to VILLAIN who 4 bets to 20bb

Pot: 30.1
To call: 11.4

HERO?

Note: This is in my 3bet range, but only partially (maybe 5-10% if that) and obviously as a bluff. The deeper I am, the slightly more likely I am to 3 bet a hand such as this especially against a LAG.

 

[boltonguy]

I agree with the 3bet bluff with this hand and with baby suited aces. In Snowie/solver ranges those hands are quite common 3! at medium to high frequencies especially on BN.

I would fold to this 4bet with this hand even though you are deep. You could get lucky with a flop but in my limited experience there is less 4bet bluffing and more strength in a 4 bet. Maybe <10% bluffing vs >90% strength, so the math on a call isnt great IMHO. Even if he is bluffing he probably has 2 overs. You have position but if you miss the flop its going to be tough to run a multi-street bluff and feel really good about it with this hand IMHO.

In general if I am 3! bluffing I will fold to a 4bet. The hands that I choose to 3! bluff with dont tend to perform well in 4bet pots.

I dont think you folded though so looking forward to the hand!

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is headed to a low SPR flop playing a speculative hand that does best in a high SPR environment. 40bb in the pot, 177bb effective ~= SPR of 4.4.

So what would Hero's post flop plan be? Fit / fold? Turn most flops into a bluff, hoping villain has ace high?

I appreciate Hero is getting an attractive price to see a flop but the post flop part of the hand will favor the four-betting villain. IMO the stacks are too shallow for Hero to continue. I suggest a fold is the best line.

DrStrange

 

[boltonguy]

FYI Snowie calls. I'm a scaredy cat!

This is the range Snowie gives V. Honestly I am not sure I understand math behind the call.

 

[boltonguy]

Here it is in Equilab based on Snowie's range for V (more or less - I dont know how to put a mixed strategy into Equilab - e.g. A5s in range 58%) so all the hands are 100% in range.

 

[Legend5555]

Hero is headed to a low SPR flop playing a speculative hand that does best in a high SPR environment. 40bb in the pot, 177bb effective ~= SPR of 4.4.

So what would Hero's post flop plan be? Fit / fold? Turn most flops into a bluff, hoping villain has ace high?

I appreciate Hero is getting an attractive price to see a flop but the post flop part of the hand will favor the four-betting villain. IMO the stacks are too shallow for Hero to continue. I suggest a fold is the best line.

DrStrange

I can't imagine folding a playable hand in position for essentially a min click. And even more so when the Villain's range is quite clearly defined. I'm getting almost 3 to 1 immediate odds, and getting 19 to 1 implied odds given the effective stack.

If I fold here, am I folding stuff like 78s in position to a standard raise when effective stacks are 20x the raise size? Possibly depending on the villain. In that situation, i'm getting even worse immediate odds than I am in my actual situation. But as the implied odds go up are we not supposed to compensate and play some more marginal hands that flop well when in position? Whether we 3 bet or a call those hands?

I can't imagine anything I 3 bet with here should be folding to this 4 bet size at this stack depth. If we do I think we just open ourselves to getting 4 bet even more since we would only continue with top of range. Our opponent is getting a ridiculous price on their 4 bet bluffs here. Now you can argue that people just aren't 4 betting light here often enough (and that's probably true), but that doesn't mean we should just fold playable hands. Are we really saying I won't flop something often enough here to justify a call? If so, then the implication here is that I won't win this pot for a large enough amount 1 out of about 20 times to make calling pre profitable. I find that very hard to believe.

 

[Legend5555]

Given reasons stated above. I call.

ACR Blitz 6max
Villain is a TAG playing 20vpip/16pfr over 200 hands
And has a 3 bet% of 7.8. Not enough data on 4bet% to be useful.
No specific notes.

Effective Stack 217bb

VILLAIN (HJ) raises to 2.2bb
HERO (B) w/ 3 bets to 8.6bb
Folds back to VILLAIN who 4 bets to 20bb
HERO calls.

Pot: 41.5bb
Eff Stack: 197bb
Flop:

VILLAIN bets 13.6bb

HERO?

 

[boltonguy]

Wow you hit that flop hard! 9 heart outs and 6 OESD outs = 15 outs or 60% equity.
Would be a cooler if V has or and the FD comes in but that's 2 combos out of 53 so only a small risk.
I think with 60% equity we want to get the money in - how about a raise to 53BB?

 

[Legend5555]

Seems like a flop that is a pretty clear check raise. In general you'd think this flop favors my range more than the 4 bettor, but ranges tend to be so condensed in 4 bet pots that outside of a few outliers like my hand, the 4 bettor tends to have an advantage. And there are good arguments that the 4 bettor should basically cbet range on all flops because of this. Regardless, i'd rather shovel money in with 2 cards to go than just 1, so raise!

ACR Blitz 6max
Villain is a TAG playing 20vpip/16pfr over 200 hands
And has a 3 bet% of 7.8. Not enough data on 4bet% to be useful.
No specific notes.

Effective Stack 217bb

VILLAIN (HJ) raises to 2.2bb
HERO (B) w/ 3 bets to 8.6bb
Folds back to VILLAIN who 4 bets to 20bb
HERO calls.

Pot: 41.5bb
Eff Stack: 197bb
Flop:

VILLAIN bets 13.6bb
HERO raises to 41bb
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: 123.5bb
Eff Stack: 156bb
Turn:

VILLAIN checks.

HERO?

 

[boltonguy]

I hate it when they call my raises and I miss!
Flatting a 4bet caps your range a bit - IMHO you are unlikely to have AA in range here.
I think the equity in the hand just shifted away from Hero to V. The call is strong.
If I am V I am calling with {AA, KK, QQ, TT, AhKh, AhQh} all of which would likely call another bullet, so I dont think we have much FE here as you dont have AA and dont have 9x in range (probably not calling a 4bet with 99 or any 9x). I think AKo is folded even with Ah.
One of my leaks is to continue firing when my semi-bluff raises/XR are called and I dont improve and it often doesnt end well.
I'm checking behind here hoping to improve on the river. Hoping for

 

[Forty4]

I don’t think that card changes much. But I also don’t think that changes much in our story so if we are against a pocket pair probably not going to push him off the hand. So I think check back. Pot size bet is almost our stack and as stated probably not going to get a fold with a bet. Not like we five bet and can represent AA or KK.

 

[303Mike]

Shove.


then rebuy.

 

[boltonguy]

Shove.


then rebuy.

LOL. I think that is the likely order of things.

 

[303Mike]

LOL. I think that is the likely order of things.

I think the HERO has to take into account his own player type, or what he has been representing at this table.
modes villian peg you as a LAG or TAG? Or Rock?
If TAG or Rock, Villian probably is thinking at best they’re chopping pot with you, with hopes of drawing out on river. So a shove here isn’t necessarily a bad idea (although risky)…
If you’re representing yourself as a LAG, I bet the villian is feeling pretty good about their hand, and will call any move here, so best bet is to check and pray.

 

[Legend5555]

Here is where I autopilot into a terrible play. This card is terrible to bluff. I can’t ever have a 9 unless it’s quads. And the only value hand I really have with any decent frequency given how the hand has played is AA. But I have a big draw so bet. And I should just jam, but...

ACR Blitz 6max
Villain is a TAG playing 20vpip/16pfr over 200 hands
And has a 3 bet% of 7.8. Not enough data on 4bet% to be useful.
No specific notes.

Effective Stack 217bb

VILLAIN (HJ) raises to 2.2bb
HERO (B) w/ 3 bets to 8.6bb
Folds back to VILLAIN who 4 bets to 20bb
HERO calls.

Pot: 41.5bb
Eff Stack: 197bb
Flop:

VILLAIN bets 13.6bb
HERO raises to 41bb
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: 123.5bb
Eff Stack: 156bb
Turn:

VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets 50bb.
VILLAIN jams for 156bb.
HERO calls.

No real decision left. He’s just way too likely to have an overpair and my bet has left me the right odds to call. Don’t have the notes in front of me, but I got there against KK.

So the interesting decisions here were calling pre and what to do on turn. Had I checked back turn so as not to get blown off my equity, I likely would have to just fold to a river bet. And I’m not sure I could get max value when I get there on a flush. So, played badly, got rewarded.

 

[Eriks]

If we are 3-betting 33 and 44 (I’m assuming we’re not 3b 43s) pre I like a raise on the flop otherwise I’m not too crazy about it. It looks a lot like 99 or a FD/combo draw. We’re not raising the cbet with TT-KK, right? I guess flatting AA pre would make sense so there’s that too.

I’d probably check behind turn now that 99 got a whole lot less likely.

 

[Legend5555]

If we are 3-betting 33 and 44 (I’m assuming we’re not 3b 43s) pre I like a raise on the flop otherwise I’m not too crazy about it. It looks a lot like 99 or a FD/combo draw. We’re not raising the cbet with TT-KK, right? I guess flatting AA pre would make sense so there’s that too.

I’d probably check behind turn now that 99 got a whole lot less likely.

Yep. And this was the oversight on my part. It's hard to put all the pieces together when you have max of 35-40 sec per decision and playing more than 1 table.

 

[boltonguy]

Glad you got there!

 

[AR_poker]

So the interesting decisions here were calling pre and what to do on turn. Had I checked back turn so as not to get blown off my equity, I likely would have to just fold to a river bet. And I’m not sure I could get max value when I get there on a flush. So, played badly, got rewarded.

Pre: fold to the 4bet. Yeah, it's click-y, but 4bets on the whole don't have to be big because the range is so condensed. Devil's advocate, you're on the BTN, you're deep, it's basically a click-back, and flops are fun. Fwiw, I don't have much a 5betting range unless I know villain has some 4bet bluffs, so I'd be flatting plenty of my 3bets (though I don't expect villains to know that) and I'm happy to cut bait with these marginal 3bet bluffs. But calling is fun. Not gonna knock it too much.

Flop: I actually like just flatting here. I'm not really worried about getting overflushed (some AhXh or KhXh combos, c'est la vie), more so that our 3 combos of 99 are our only strong hands and there's a flush draw staring villain in the face that will be easy to continue against with his overpairs and nut flush draws. I'm usually just flatting 44 and 33 on the BTN pre, though maybe you're 3betting those some, too. I do think most villains will also suspect slow-played AA from us, at some frequency, so six more there. I think a flop raise is totally fine, because it's not really a bad event if we get 3bet unless we're up against those better flush draws. But the hands that we're targeting for folds, we are crushing equity-wise and can target on the turn. I'd delay aggression. With our AA - TT holdings, are we just flatting, or is there merit to a flop raise for equity denial? My default is just to call, but maybe I should look at that default more closely.

Turn: Unfortunate card for our bluffs. Do you ever have Ad9d here? I'd guess no, and it's hard for me to find other 9x in range. The flop raise means we constricted villain's range, so he's only got overpairs and better flush draws. I don't think any one of those hands folds here on a very good turn blocker. With very little fold equity and only a jam making sense with the SPR, I'd probably check behind and see a free river. We've still got good equity when called (except by AhKh, AhQh, etc.), and if you think we can get QQ, JJ, or TT to fold to a jam, there's merit to it (I think AA and KK are snapping, especially with no heart). Again, with a front door flush draw staring villain in the face and our likeliest value (99) being reduced to one combo, I think villain's overpairs are usually calling.

All told, I think the small turn bet is the only truly weird play? Definitely priced in to call, and glad you got there!

A related question for you that this hand made me think about: how are you playing your overpairs in this situation? Whatever mix of AA - TT you'd arrive at the flop with.

 

[Legend5555]

Pre: fold to the 4bet. Yeah, it's click-y, but 4bets on the whole don't have to be big because the range is so condensed. Devil's advocate, you're on the BTN, you're deep, it's basically a click-back, and flops are fun. Fwiw, I don't have much a 5betting range unless I know villain has some 4bet bluffs, so I'd be flatting plenty of my 3bets (though I don't expect villains to know that) and I'm happy to cut bait with these marginal 3bet bluffs. But calling is fun. Not gonna knock it too much.

Flop: I actually like just flatting here. I'm not really worried about getting overflushed (some AhXh or KhXh combos, c'est la vie), more so that our 3 combos of 99 are our only strong hands and there's a flush draw staring villain in the face that will be easy to continue against with his overpairs and nut flush draws. I'm usually just flatting 44 and 33 on the BTN pre, though maybe you're 3betting those some, too. I do think most villains will also suspect slow-played AA from us, at some frequency, so six more there. I think a flop raise is totally fine, because it's not really a bad event if we get 3bet unless we're up against those better flush draws. But the hands that we're targeting for folds, we are crushing equity-wise and can target on the turn. I'd delay aggression. With our AA - TT holdings, are we just flatting, or is there merit to a flop raise for equity denial? My default is just to call, but maybe I should look at that default more closely.

Turn: Unfortunate card for our bluffs. Do you ever have Ad9d here? I'd guess no, and it's hard for me to find other 9x in range. The flop raise means we constricted villain's range, so he's only got overpairs and better flush draws. I don't think any one of those hands folds here on a very good turn blocker. With very little fold equity and only a jam making sense with the SPR, I'd probably check behind and see a free river. We've still got good equity when called (except by AhKh, AhQh, etc.), and if you think we can get QQ, JJ, or TT to fold to a jam, there's merit to it (I think AA and KK are snapping, especially with no heart). Again, with a front door flush draw staring villain in the face and our likeliest value (99) being reduced to one combo, I think villain's overpairs are usually calling.

All told, I think the small turn bet is the only truly weird play? Definitely priced in to call, and glad you got there!

A related question for you that this hand made me think about: how are you playing your overpairs in this situation? Whatever mix of AA - TT you'd arrive at the flop with.

I don't really have a 5 bet range here. So given the stack depth and 4 bet sizing, I don't think I'm folding basically any of my 3 bets here unless I got l was getting loose with AJo or something. So generally I'm going to have all the 3 bet pairs here. So I think I'd have a decent amount of hands in the middle of my range that would be looking to call/fold here. And I'm pretty sure I'd raise almost all my AA here targeting KK and QQ, and maybe KK occasionally. So I do need to have some bluffs here I think.

 

[Legend5555]

Maybe there is an argument for equity denial with TT-QQ since our villain can have all the AK. But the pot is already bloated and we are in position. AK is going to feel like garbage getting called on this flop. So I'm not sure we need to. That just feels like a weird merge.