Continued
Mavens Site - Fox Poker
Micro Stakes
Full Ring
Game is playing loose and splashy. Most pots are multiway raised affairs, but there is also a lot of limping. Typical for all levels below 2/5 on this site.
Folds to hero on button. A real rarity for it to fold around.
HERO (140bb)
raise to 3bb.
SB (48bb) calls.
BB (120bb) calls.
Pot: 9bb
SB (45bb)
BB (117bb)
HERO covers.
Flop:
Checks to HERO.
HERO bets 3.5bb.
SB calls.
BB calls.
Pot: 19.5bb
SB (41.5bb)
BB (113.5bb)
HERO covers.
Flop:
SB checks.
BB bets 19bb
HERO?
What stakes are we playing here? Just to get a general idea for the player pool.
Flop: I think either option is fine. I think there's plenty of merit to checking back, but I'd bet this hand IP. We can easily call a raise, and both SB and BB should have plenty of suited hands that continue that we can overflush when the third diamond peels.
Turn: in the moment, I'm definitely calling. Probably a -EV call against range based on pure equity, but I think if we don't hit a diamond we can bluff and take it away when the river cooperates and BB checks. Drawing to the nuts, and this is a really good diamond combo blocking sets. If we're folding this, I don't think we're calling any diamond combos, and I don't like that. BB should be unusually weighted toward value since donk bluffing multiway is scary/hard to do, and since we've got all the good hands in range in this formation, but people in my pool also seldom do this sort of thing with nutted hands, so it seems like vulnerable value like Jx or two pair, or bluffs that beat us like 87/86. Though we lose to those hands, we can theoretically blow them off on the river when the board cooperates. Throw in a couple of non-paired diamond combos into BB's range, and I'm even more intrigued.
But, after spending a little more time thinking about it, I'm sad folding. I just don't see many check-folds from BB on the river, without knowing more about the player. True, that means our rivered diamonds likely get some value, but again that doesn't happen frequently enough for the price being laid. Airball bluffs like Kd8d have got to blast off on most cards. 98 will probably sigh-call a board pair, sets (and maybe even two pairs) will probably sigh-call a one-liner, and we don't get scare cards frequently enough on rivers to bluff at, anyway. I think our bluffs would be targeting Jx and 87/86, but I don't think a ton of Jx donks the turn for this size, and I don't think 87/86 shut down on most rivers through this line. I think it's near suicidal to bluff-raise the river with this combo if villain takes a bet-bet line, and I don't think we've got enough showdown value to call down, especially since we lose to the most logical bluffs like 87/86/64/etc. Plus, if BB ever checks river as a trap, then we just get smashed. And a rivered A or 5 might just give us another reason to call with a losing hand.
So, the price + the fact that it's gonna be hard to know what rivers besides diamonds to put money in the pot (as a bluff or a call-down) + the possibility of just getting blown off on the turn by further action from SB/BB = sad fold from the calling station. Am I a nit now?
.
.
