PAHWM: .50/1 July 13th

Legend5555

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I am going to save all analysis from me for the very end of the hand on this one.

.50/1 online home game
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Villain is a TAG. Has shown down KK, JJ, 77, KJ. Only 77 was not a winner. Is up to $230. Limps on occasion, but mostly comes in for raise. Has taken down a few pots heads up and multiway with a cbet when he was pre flop raiser. Raises in pos more frequently.

Effective stack: $130

Folds around
VILLAIN (HJ) raises to $3.50
Folds around
HERO (BB) with :5s::5h:

HERO?
 

DrStrange

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Hero will be out of position. Even so, I do not think hero should fold for this price: Pay $2.50 into what will become a $7.50 pot with a small pocket pair. SPR would be roughly 30.

This looks like a classic set mining opportunity. That portion of the play seems easily +EV. Reraising a TAG's opening raise is questionable to me. I doubt this is a blind stealing operation from a home game. Playing a big pot OOP seems like a sub optimal choice.

Let's rate this street as call > raise >>> fold.

How hero proceeds when he misses the set is a wholly different question. We have villain reads that his opening range is weighted towards big cards vs pairs. Villain c-bets frequently under good circumstances. It will be tempting to float villain's bet with pocket fives unimproved. THAT decision will be a lot more difficult.

While I hope the best for Hero, the discussion will be a lot more interesting if we are going to figure out how to defend vs a c-bet unimproved.

Good luck Hero, I hope you need it this time -=- DrStrange
 

Kain8

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I'm good with what the good @DrStrange said.

Put this on and let's go:

1594738995855.png
 

MathijsVS

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I've had some bad luck with set mining recently, so I'm always reluctant to play a low pair OOP.

Then again, I know that my feelings cloud my judgement, and I should turn away from that path (since Yoda told me it leads to the dark side), and I know DrStrange to be a hell of a lot smarter than me, so grab a pick axe and some torches, we're going mining :)
 

Eriks

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I actually prefer a 3-bet here. I think it will be difficult to profitably setmine oop vs what looks to be a fairly competent player. Hijack open may not mean a huge amount of steals but villain should definitely be opening hands that will have a tough time against a 3-bet: AT, AJ, Axs, KQ, KJ, small/middle pocket pairs.

With that said, I’ll flat some of the time but will be looking to float some favorable flops when we don’t hit out set.
 

MathijsVS

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While I hope the best for Hero, the discussion will be a lot more interesting if we are going to figure out how to defend vs a c-bet unimproved.

This is what I bump up against whenever I try and profitably play low/mid pairs. Somehow I always end up feeling very uncomfortable playing any of the options.
 

Rhodeman77

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Thankfully I’m not the villain in this hand! I have never raised to $3.50 preflop.

I would call and take a flop for this cheap price.
 

Legend5555

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Thankfully I’m not the villain in this hand! I have never raised to $3.50 preflop.

I would call and take a flop for this cheap price.
Although I typically say I don't reveal the villain, I might make an exception in your case. ;) But, correct. This was not you.
 

JustinInMN

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The price isn't good enough for a pure set mine here. Hero will have to be comfortable continuing in other spots as well to make this call pre. Position is working against hero, especially against a tag. But if villian being tight means his raising range isn't working for steal attempt, there will be some mid card flops we as hero can try and take over when we miss.

I think calling is best, but folding is a surprising close second just based on the limited value we as hero can hope to win from a TAG villian if we hope to end up with the best hand.

Re raising would mostly be a play to target what villian will raise versus what he will defend against a 3 bet. If villian isn't raising wide in the first place, this range is probably narrow. Perhaps only 66-88, maybe some kx. In the worst case a reraise is serving to only keep the best of villian's range in play.
 

Legend5555

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Moving along as I will soon be out of the loop for several hours.

Effective stack: $130

Folds around
VILLAIN (HJ) raises to $3.50
Folds around
HERO (BB) with :5s::5h: calls.

Pot: $7.50
Eff stack: $126.50
Flop: :5c: :ah: :ts:

I know we could debate about leading out, but it's just such a rare play and so non-standard that I'm going to skip ahead.

HERO checks.
VILLAIN bets $3.

HERO?
 

DrStrange

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If villain has a big pair, less than aces, Hero makes very little if anything by check/raising.

If villain has a big ace, hero can likely get one bet from villain by raising. Better villain reads would help us judge how much we could extract from villain playing bottom set vs top pair.

If villain has a bigger set, Hero is likely to get felted.

If villain hits broadway or a turned set, hero is also likely going broke.

I think a passive flop line is better. There is a meta perspective to consider as well. Let's train villain that a check/call flop line can be a sign of danger.

I vote Check/call. With the right villain Hero wouldn't need to be so tricky.
 

Shaggy

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Its unfortunate that villain c-bet so small. I don't think a c/r is best here. I think it announces our hand. I think its an easy fold for villain unless he holds specifically A10. I think donking the turn with total brick cards... or c/r'ing any paint. Hopefully he 2pairs the big card.
 

Eriks

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Just call, that flop doesn’t hit our range very well and there are no real draws to represent. A raise screams set or A5s
 

JustinInMN

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Well I think this is about the best flop we could hit here. I think calling is the pretty obvious choice here.

I really only like the check if we are checking 100% of our holdings on this flop. And I do find that strategy reasonable. I do like to check dry boards out of position a lot.

It's tough to gain anything by raising, the board is pretty dry so we can really only get called by fairly strong value here (Ax or aces up), if there were draws on this board, then villain's calling range would be wider. Also because the board is dry we don't really need to worry about protection here. Any card 9 or under is perfectly safe unless villain led like 99 or 88 on this flop. The higher cards on the turn should mostly be safe but probably do improve villain's odds of drawing out on the river. (adding gutshots or improving villain to aces-up or trips)

So I think the play is to call and plan to check all turns.

From villain's perspective, check-call may set off an alarm as well, but probably not as much as check-raise does. Villain can probably put enough "stuff" in hero's range where he may continue value betting figuring hero has a lot of weak Ax, and maybe some Tx to call with for such a small price. And honestly as hero, I might have a lot of those hand in my range and want to continue too, so playing 55 this way helps for balance. I may not have a single check-raise hand in my range as hero actually.
 

Frogzilla

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I check-raise some gutters and some double backdoor draws here when I’m feeling froggy, so I’m happy to check raise bottom set. Dry board so I size small, probably just to $10-12
 

Legend5555

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Waiting on an oil change... Let’s continue.

Effective stack: $130

Folds around
VILLAIN (HJ) raises to $3.50
Folds around
HERO (BB) with :5s::5h: calls.

Pot: $7.50
Eff stack: $126.50
Flop: :5c: :ah: :ts:

I know we could debate about leading out, but it's just such a rare play and so non-standard that I'm going to skip ahead.

HERO checks.
VILLAIN bets $3.
HERO raises to $9.
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: $25.50
Eff stack: $117.50
Turn: :5c::ah::ts::6c:

HERO?
 

JustinInMN

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So since hero took the initiative on the flop, I don't thing there is much reason to stop now. I would probably go for about half-pot value, I really want to go for a sizing that all Ax hands could call because that is our most likely source of value. A smaller sizing might also tease a raise out of villian and I, as hero, am ready to play for stacks here. Also we can collect from Ac-xc as well, otherwise I don't see too many club combos in villain's range given the flop action.

I would bet 13-15 here, and I am planning to shove on a villain raise.
 

Rhodeman77

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Waiting on an oil change... Let’s continue.

Effective stack: $130

Folds around
VILLAIN (HJ) raises to $3.50
Folds around
HERO (BB) with :5s::5h: calls.

Pot: $7.50
Eff stack: $126.50
Flop: :5c: :ah: :ts:

I know we could debate about leading out, but it's just such a rare play and so non-standard that I'm going to skip ahead.

HERO checks.
VILLAIN bets $3.
HERO raises to $9.
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: $25.50
Eff stack: $117.50
Turn: :5c::ah::ts::6c:

HERO?

Now that you sprung then trap you need to keep the pressure on. Pot sized $25 bet.
 

LotsOfChips

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Well your check-raise on the flop let the cat out of the bag - Villain knows you're holding something, and that you aren't afraid of him. The fact that he called your C/R means that he likely has something as well. Whether that something is TP with a good kicker, 2 pair, or a gutshot Broadway straight draw (all of which you are crushing at the moment), or AA/TT for the bigger set (which will open you up to a world of hurt) is the question. The latter seems less likely, as he didn't re-raise your C/R.

Might as well lead out with a 3/4 - full size pot bet and see if he comes along for the ride. If he jams back at you, then you have a decision to make.

Edit - the monster under the bed here is AcTc which gives him a ton of outs (9 for the flush, 4 for the boat). Certainly within his range, and not entirely inconsistent with the action so far. But nobody believes in monsters under the bed, do we?
 
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Rhodeman77

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Keep your foot on the gas, potting here gives you almost a 1:1 SPR going to the river.

exactly, if we want to get the rest of our stack in by the river we need a large bet on the turn.
 

MathijsVS

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Be agressive. Villain knows you have something after that check-raise, so might as well build a pot worth the effort.

I'd go with about half the pot and see what Villain does. I really don't like his tiny bet on the flop, so let's see if he shows any initiative after this bet.
 

Legend5555

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Be agressive. Villain knows you have something after that check-raise, so might as well build a pot worth the effort.

I'd go with about half the pot and see what Villain does. I really don't like his tiny bet on the flop, so let's see if he shows any initiative after this bet.
Don't like it in what way?
 

MathijsVS

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Don't like it in what way?

I've grown to distrust people who bet lower on the turn than they did on the flop.
I've seen it as a way of building the pot with a monster, or as a set-up to get the opponent pot-committed akin to a check-raise while dangling a little bit of bait.

Combine that with the fact that you told us it gets even more interesting, and I smell a plot brewing :p
 

Legend5555

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I've grown to distrust people who bet lower on the turn than they did on the flop.
I've seen it as a way of building the pot with a monster, or as a set-up to get the opponent pot-committed akin to a check-raise while dangling a little bit of bait.

Combine that with the fact that you told us it gets even more interesting, and I smell a plot brewing :p
Interesting can mean a lot of things.
 

Legend5555

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Moving along... Again I'm saving all my commentary for the end of the hand this time.

Effective stack: $130

Folds around
VILLAIN (HJ) raises to $3.50
Folds around
HERO (BB) with :5s::5h: calls.

Pot: $7.50
Eff stack: $126.50
Flop: :5c: :ah: :ts:

I know we could debate about leading out, but it's just such a rare play and so non-standard that I'm going to skip ahead.

HERO checks.
VILLAIN bets $3.
HERO raises to $9.
VILLAIN calls.

Pot: $25.50
Eff stack: $117.50
Turn: :5c::ah::ts::6c:

HERO checks
Villain checks

Pot: $25.50
Eff stack: $117.50
Turn: :5c: :ah::ts::6c::qh:

HERO?
 

MathijsVS

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Wild guess: Villain has KJ, bet the flop when he saw the draw, got cold feet when he missed the turn and hit his straight on the river?
 
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