PAHWM 3-handed

Kain8

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Judging from you getting admonished for making the eventual call, my guess is that you're up against both a better flush draw and top pair and you magically back into a runner runner straight or bink trips on the river.
 

SixSpeedFury

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Finale.

BB: 34,308
SB: 14,064
BTN: 9,628

Blinds are 400-800.

BTN limps, SB calls and Hero looks down at
:6h:
:7h:
. Hero checks.

Pot: 2,400

Flop comes
:4h:
:th:
:7s:
. SB checks, I bet 1,300. Button jams all-in for 9,628, SB jams as well for 13,664. Hero.......?

Pot: 23,292

I have limited time to think (15 secs) as we were on a timer, so my thought was I have middle pair and a flush draw, button is a very aggro player who could have been jamming with pretty much any pair, draw or a bluff. SB is solid player, I put him on a set at best. My thinking is I have back door straight flush possibilites with a pair already on board and a flush draw. Counting my outs quickly I thought I was in the range of 12 outs. So mathematically I figured I had around 50% equity to win the hand. Effective pot total is ~25k, after all-ins my call would be for around 13.5k (slightly about 2 to 1). My thought also was if I lost, I would still have 20k in chips and still a decent stack to play with. But I also had a chance to knock out both players at one shot and win the tourney. I make the call.

Villain 1 turns over :4s::7d: for two pairs.
Villain 2 turns over :tc::ks: for top pair.

Turn is :qd:, river :8h:, giving me the win.

After the game the others players questioned if this was a good call. Their points were that although the math says it was a good call, I wasn't taking into account that 2 players jammed after me raising, including the SB who checked-shoved after I bet and button went all-in.

They said it's more than plausible to think that one of us was also on a flush draw which would effectively have eliminated most all of my outs (as it would have been a bigger flush draw). And if a player had a set or 2 pairs (which the SB did have 2 pairs) that eliminates some of my outs as well. This was a small stake tourney and that played a part in my decision as there wasn't a ton of money to lose, but my question is, was this the right call?

Essentially, if I have middle pair and a flush draw and raise and 2 players behind me jam, should I call? (Keep in mind that if I lost, I would have been a 2 to 1 dog for the chip lead). If this was a big tourney for big money I might have changed my mind. What are your thoughts?
 

Beakertwang

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@SixSpeedFury, I may have missed it in the thread, but were you already in the money 3-handed?
 

DrStrange

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I think the villains are getting too much credit for the quality of their hands. This is a three handed game. The stacks are "short", perhaps not to the point of desperation but getting close. This doesn't have to be set vs nut flush draw to make sense of the action. I expect to see a lot of one pair types of hands and not so many flush draws.

It is certainly true that Hero could be "Mr. monkey in the middle". I would be highly concerned about this playing 200bb+ deep. The worst case situation is awful. But it is easy enough to come up with hand ranges where hero does have almost 50% equity in the main pot.

Also, the idea that Hero's equity in the side pot is much less than 50% is pretty severe - flush draw + pair is only behind a set (30% - 70%). this type of hand is something like 48% - 52% vs a huge range of made and drawing hands.

We also have to be mindful this was a limped pot preflop. A suited ace or pocket pair is likely to raise preflop. The top end of the villains' ranges is sheared off by the passive preflop action. The button should be raising a wide range of hands - something like 40% of all his hands. The SB might be more circumspect but still should be raising ~20% of the time.

It seems like a reasonable call. Perhaps not a snap call, but not worth that much thought.
 

Frogzilla

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What do you guys think of this perspective?
View attachment 464066
Your friend may not understand ICM. 67/33/0 and 52/28/20 are the exact same. 50/30/20 is a little flatter than 52/28/20 but not really. Also, SB can easily have some AxHH flush draws that are behind your pair + FD so his equity calc for the side is off.

Any way you analyze it, there are some very specific ranges where it could be a marginally losing call but against the more common opponent ranges it’s definitely profitable. Never terrible.

Not that it matters, but what’d you suck out on?
 

SixSpeedFury

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Your friend may not understand ICM. 67/33/0 and 52/28/20 are the exact same. 50/30/20 is a little flatter than 52/28/20 but not really. Also, SB can easily have some AxHH flush draws that are behind your pair + FD so his equity calc for the side is off.

Any way you analyze it, there are some very specific ranges where it could be a marginally losing call but against the more common opponent ranges it’s definitely profitable. Never terrible.

Not that it matters, but what’d you suck out on?
Villain 1 turns over :4s::7d: for two pairs.
Villain 2 turns over :tc::ks: for top pair.

Turn is :qd:, river :8h:, giving me the win.
 
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