So I agree with you
@Legend5555. I did put this in PokerSnowie which isnt a solver per se but does provide GTO play for a specific scenario. For Snowie this is a 100% check. For 25NL Zone, I think GTO is too passive - checking here would likely lead to a 3/4 to pot bet (as almost noone checks the flop when they are strong) and the response at these stakes is to push back hard with the IP player's entire range to get a fold. I would have a hard time calling a 3/4 to pot bet; I would call but would be uncomfortable. So I would rather keep the initiative and set a cheaper price to see a turn. If V raises I'm folding here.
I'm thinking what you're thinking: UTG is unlikely to have AA, KK, AK (these would all be 4bet pre even IP in this game), 66 or 88 (both are probably folded). His calling range definitely includes 3 combos of AQs and 3 combos of QQ; maybe he also call with KQs for 3 more combos for 9 total but I am ahead of every other combo, probably about 30+ if he's calling with 99+, A9s+, JTs. I dont think he's calling AQo-. So I'm good 2/3 of the time here but I do want protection from overcards and a draw so I want a bet. Given the number of hands that do beat me, I'm going to bet on the smaller side.
Hero bets $1.78 or as close to 1/3 pot that his brain can compute in the remaining 10 seconds allocated after going through all of the above.
Villain calls. Turn is
.
Pot is $8.36, board is
. Hero holds
in the BB and covers Villain in UTG.
Hero?