PAHWM: $2/5 NL ATs

JustinInMN

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I agree that Hero needs to keep the story up that he is very strong. I think a bet of $350 is a good size.
Factors I see against this story

1) Hero opened +1 and has a tight image (despite frequent button straddles, but I guess that was par for the course until a few players recently departed.)
2) Hero did not 4 bet pre, which makes it a tough sell to lay down JJ+ and hero partially blocks TT.

But if we are talking about hoping to bluff out of this as hero, I think TT or JJ are the best hopes for villian holdings. Maybe that's part of why I favor smaller sizing. Lower loss when called, and it looks a little more value-y so maybe villian thinks about folding the bottom of his range, which beats hero. If I had a set here as hero, I would probably go 50-60% of pot as well.
 

Rhodeman77

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The 2 big questions are:
1. Just how tight is CO? Does he see monsters under the bed? Can he lay down an over pair if he thinks Hero has AA/KK or a set of 9’s? Is he going to war with AK without a pair? Would he really call a check raise with AK?

2. What hands can Hero really be repping that make sense as played? Would Hero ever not 4 bet AA/KK when out of position? If Hero thinks he has a tight table image can he really be repping 78 very often?
 

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Hero hears the PCF crowds advice and continues to tell his story of a big hand. CO appears to be more stubborn than anticipated. Sadly no more help is provided with an A or a Flush, but another card that favors Hero's range more than CO peels off. Should bullet 3 be fired and if so how much with about 1k behind?

Hand:
Currently playing 7 handed and Hero is UTG+1 sitting on $1,600 with :ac::tc:. No straddle is on this hand.

Preflop:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $20, folds to CO who 3bets to $70, folds back to Hero who calls.

Flop ($147): :9c::6h::3c:
Hero checks, CO bets $90, Hero thinks about what size he would use with sets, 87, and raises to $250. CO thinks for a bit and flats.

Turn ($647)::5d:

Hero bets $325. CO pauses, looks at the board, checks his cards, and calls.

River ($1,295):8s:

Hero ???
 

Kain8

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If you somehow get this 3 barrel bluff through, I salute you.

Having said that, I don't even think an all-in is going to dissuade a call at this point. This is why I advocated for a larger raise size on the flop, so that we could apply the maximum amount of pressure on our opponent on the turn. If they're able to find a call on a $1,000 turn bet with just an overpair, then good for them.

Now we're stuck in no man's land and we're throwing good money after bad I feel. Check/fold river and preserve your remaining stack.
 

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CO called twice and likely has an overpair. If I were CO and have an overpair facing your shove on the river I would call. First I wouldn’t care if you had a set of 66/88/99. Second the only 7 you should have is 77 exactly when calling a 3bet from the LJ against the CO.

If i were you I would check and give up.

When you tell everyone the results and some craziness happened (which I’m sure this is why you are telling the story) I would try to identify where the mistake was (either yours or CO’s) and discuss how you would adjust yours or CO’s range and/or bet sizing to adjust for the opponent.
 

Moxie Mike

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So let's review this hand from the villain's perspective:

You 3-bet a tight EP opener only to get your c-bet check-raised on a 9-high flop. This slows you down but doesn't convince you to fold.

Then, a seemingly innocuous :5d: hits the turn and your opponent leads out for half the pot. Would you put that person on having flopped a set?

As played, in the CO's position I would put you on some type of 1-pair hand - like maybe :ah::9h:.

Now back to your river play - I think if you check the villian is going to check back most of his range... if he bets at all I think you can assume he either has a pretty big hand or he has no showdown value at all.

Hero bets $325. CO pauses, looks at the board, checks his cards, and calls.

River ($1,295):8s:

Hero ???
In my experience, when a player rechecks his hole cards before calling (as opposed to raising), they're often on a draw. I think a decent portion of Villian's range includes :kc::qc:, :kc::jc:, :qc::jc: and maybe even :7x::7x: for a turned double-gutter.

For this reason alone I think leading out 3rd barrel is appropriate. So how much?

You've got $1k back but you don't need to stick it all in... in fact I think if you make it look like you want a call you may more likely induce a fold - conversely if he's willing to call $600 he'll probably call $1000 just the same.

So I'd bet about $650 and hope he's a smart enough player to release the hand.
 

JustinInMN

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Hero has set up a pot size shove here, but I think it's a give up spot, unless hero thinks villian can fold JJ and TT. Even that doesn't represent a lot of villian's range.

But still, is villian aware missed clubs probably makes up a good hunk of hero's range? Is villian aware hero probably doesn't have overpairs here?

The only way a bluff here makes sense is if hero thinks villian is overfolding in general and hero would make this bluff as an exploitive play. Otherwise, I don't think hero can represent the goods enough here if villian has followed the action.
 

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In my experience, when a player rechecks his hole cards before calling (as opposed to raising), they're often on a draw. I think a decent portion of Villian's range includes :kc::qc:, :kc::jc:, :qc::jc: and maybe even :7x::7x: for a turned double-gutter.
3 betting pre flop with 77 in the CO vs LJ open means he'd be a massive fish. Only Hero should have this hand here.

3 betting KQs preflop in the CO vs LJ open is not unheard of but normally considered too loose. Same goes with with KJs-QJs.

If villian showed up with these hands on showdown, the adjustment would be to 4 bet this person wider pre flop.
 

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So when do we get the results?
Sorry, flying back from Disney yesterday and got delayed over 4 hours. Made for a very long day....


Hand:
Currently playing 7 handed and Hero is UTG+1 sitting on $1,600 with :ac::tc:. No straddle is on this hand.

Preflop:
UTG folds, Hero raises to $20, folds to CO who 3bets to $70, folds back to Hero who calls.

Flop ($147): :9c::6h::3c:
Hero checks, CO bets $90, Hero thinks about what size he would use with sets, 87, and raises to $250. CO thinks for a bit and flats.

Turn ($647)::5d:

Hero bets $325. CO pauses, looks at the board, checks his cards, and calls.

River ($1,295):8s:

Hero bets $500, before Hero can get the chips in the middle CO declares all in (~$400-500 more), Hero ???
 

Chippy McChiperson

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Normally it's a fold, I will say though snap all-ins are bluffs a lot of times. Problem is he may be bluffing with the best hand. You can beat KQcc and that's about it. If you think he has this exact holding 15% of the time I guess call? Otherwise let it go.
 

Moxie Mike

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Hero bets $500, before Hero can get the chips in the middle CO declares all in (~$400-500 more), Hero ???
Well, you can only beat a bluff - and you can't even beat all the ace-highs. I think the only way you can justify a call here is for meta-game purposes because a call here is basically giving money away. Can you get $400 in future value for what a call here is going to do for your table image? Tabling your hand here might help in that regard. Will the information gained by seeing his hole cards allow you to make the proper adjustments against this opponent in future hands? I suspect not enough to spend $400 on it but you never know.

I guess it mostly comes down to whether you think he's ever bluffing here. 77 seems likely given the snap shove... one would think if he were bluffing he would have at least pondered it's likelihood of success before committing the chips. Any other hand with medium showdown value probably just flats your river bet. But from his point of view, he really can't reasonably expect or hope for a fold here can he?

Or perhaps it was his intention all along to shove any river card.

If it were me, I would hollywood for 30 or 40 seconds and then quietly muck.
 

JustinInMN

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Weird, so I was pretty covinced villian played this to station. Why would he shove AA here?

I really can't put him on much value except for 77 assume he can 3 bet pre this low. (Maybe he's down there 7 handed, but then we probably should have considered sets.)

If villian is doing this with a set even (we could consider 99, maybe 88) he would have to be confident hero can't have a 7 himself.

Here is hero's other problem. The bluffs villian may have here are only among the A-hi hands that he is 3 betting pre that don't contain the :ac:. Maybe KQs but that feels like we're making villian a little looser than described.

So I think this is a clear fold. Even if we can put KQ in villian's range, hero is beat by enough value, and enough villian bluffs that are better than AT.

EDIT, pretty much what @Chippy McChiperson said
 
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Well, you can only beat a bluff - and you can't even beat all the ace-highs. I think the only way you can justify a call here is for meta-game purposes because a call here is basically giving money away. Can you get $400 in future value for what a call here is going to do for your table image? Tabling your hand here might help in that regard. Will the information gained by seeing his hole cards allow you to make the proper adjustments against this opponent in future hands? I suspect not enough to spend $400 on it but you never know.

I guess it mostly comes down to whether you think he's ever bluffing here. 77 seems likely given the snap shove... one would think if he were bluffing he would have at least pondered it's likelihood of success before committing the chips. Any other hand with medium showdown value probably just flats your river bet. But from his point of view, he really can't reasonably expect or hope for a fold here can he?

Or perhaps it was his intention all along to shove any river card.

If it were me, I would hollywood for 30 or 40 seconds and then quietly muck.
Hero is visiting this casino from out of town and has no plans to return. If this was Hero's home casino these assessments would definitely come into play and Hero could definitely use this for table image purposes as the player pool is pretty small there.
 

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Weird, so I was pretty covinced villian played this to station. Why would he shove AA here?

I really can't put him on much value except for 77 assume he can 3 bet pre this low. (Maybe he's down there 7 handed, but then we probably should have considered sets.)

If villian is doing this with a set even (we could consider 99, maybe 88) he would have to be confident hero can't have a 7 himself.

Here is hero's other problem. The bluffs villian may have here are only among the A-hi hands that he is 3 betting pre that don't contain the :Ac:. Maybe KQs but that feels like we're making villian a little looser than described.

So I think this is a clear fold. Even if we can put KQ in villian's range, hero is beat by enough value, and enough villian bluffs that are better than AT.

EDIT, pretty much what @Chippy McChiperson said
The shove here was super weird as the only hand he can do this with is a 7, but how does he get to the river with a 7. Hero blocks A7cc so that only leaves 77. Basically CO is polarizing his range to 77 (the only value hand he can have) or a bluff of which Hero only beats KQcc or KJcc. Either way the shove on the river indicates Co's 3 betting range is wider than Hero thought.
 

Frogzilla

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I fold this all day. No reason to call without specific villain reads that he overbluffs in a spot live folks usually super-underbluff...and even then still fold.

We’re giving villain credit for KQcc and QJcc as the two bluffs you beat but lots of players just fold river instead of the jam.
 

JustinInMN

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If villian has 88 it's a pretty interesting shove. Because he then so heavily blocks 87 (especially if :8c: is one of villian's cards), he can pretty safely assume villian never has a 7 unless he his opening +1 as weak as 76, or one-gappers like 97, which really doesn't seem to fit hero as initially described.

So to villian 88 is effectively the nuts except for 99. This might be one way in which we can give villian credit for having a little more value other than straights here. Conversly, if hero is known to consider A-hi payoffs, villian is probably incentivised to go for value in a view more spots than the nuts. (This may also even apply to the overpair hands with the initial assumption of hero's range.) Either way, if we decide now is the time to reconsider villian's 3 bet pre range and widen it, we still come to the conclusion he has enough value, even slightly beyond straights, plus the bluffs that still beat hero, to justify hero calling in this spot.
 

Saoliver

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Prediction: Villain has :kc::7c: . His preflop 3 bet was a one-time anomaly because he felt like playing this hand loose or was tired of getting raised preflop. That is the only thing that makes sense to me. Or a :kc::clubs: missed flush bluff.
 

Moxie Mike

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The shove here was super weird as the only hand he can do this with is a 7, but how does he get to the river with a 7. Hero blocks A7cc so that only leaves 77. Basically CO is polarizing his range to 77 (the only value hand he can have) or a bluff of which Hero only beats KQcc or KJcc. Either way the shove on the river indicates Co's 3 betting range is wider than Hero thought.
I'm assuming you didn't call and weren't able to see villain's holding. If the story ends with you mucking and then Villain tabling the King-high bluff that'd be a pretty wild conclusion... but I'm pretty firm that he has 77 here.

Thanks for posting this hand for discussion by the way. Please don't take this as a criticism - but I do think all these decision points should serve as a cautionary tale for 1) calling 3-bets OOP with marginal holdings; and 2) inflating the pot where your flopped draw only gives you a modest equity edge in the best case scenario.
 

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I'm assuming you didn't call and weren't able to see villain's holding. If the story ends with you mucking and then Villain tabling the King-high bluff that'd be a pretty wild conclusion... but I'm pretty firm that he has 77 here.

Thanks for posting this hand for discussion by the way. Please don't take this as a criticism - but I do think all these decision points should serve as a cautionary tale for 1) calling 3-bets OOP with marginal holdings; and 2) inflating the pot where your flopped draw only gives you a modest equity edge in the best case scenario.
I didn't call and he didn't table his hand, but I do know what he was holding as we chatted for a bit when he was cashing out about the particular hand. I'll post the results and my thoughts on the hand either tonight or tomorrow when I get a few moments.
 

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I would think 78cc would be in more 3-bet ranges than A7cc
I figured CO could not have a hand like 78 when he just flatted turn. Too many bad river cards. Any pair or club and he's left wondering if facing a shove.


Hero in this hand was me if that wasn't already obvious. I folded to the river raise and had the table in fits about how can you fold for only a few bills more at this point. Frankly, I didn't feel like lighting anothrr few hundo on fire at this point as I strongly suspected this villian could only do that with a 7. However I literally couldn't figure out how he got to the river with a 7. It had me absolutely baffled and I figured my line credibly represented a better hand than one pair often enough that he shouldn't be calling with one pair.

After the hand was over I topped up to 1k and from the tables perspective went on monkey tilt. However I got hit by the deck, KK, JJ, AQs in the next orbit. Problem was I got no action. So I decided to continue to hammer them till they played back. I think we went 2 hours without seeing a river and I raised about 50% of the pots PF. I probably won 80% without a flop. I also put in for a table change as well as it was clear I wasn't ever going to get paid and being stuck 2 buy ins and on @Schmendr1ck schedule I didn't feel like winning $7 at a time.

During those few hours this villian played literally one more hand. In which I bet flop after raising PF, and he folded. He cashed out the next hand. I still had no read on him, besides uber nit who spazzed during one hand.

As he was cashing out I asked him about the hand and he said to me I figured you had a set. I just got super lucky on the end and made the straight with my 7s. I didn't realize until the car ride home when @Schmendr1ck pointed out that the turn made him a double gutter. In hindsight, almost any other river card besides a 8,7,4 and he's folding. If he hits an 8,7,4 that's a club I get paid. Therefore I'm only losing on a few rivers.

A few things at play here for me this time. First, I've been doing more 4 betting PF recently and am working on trying to find a raising/call range vs. 3 bets that doesn't include a pair. I think ATs and AJs are perfect candidates so I've been using that idea recently. On some days though I'm 4 balling this regardless.

Second, I had been reading No Limit Holdem for Advanced Players by Matthew Janda and the concept in there about Check Raising with a Stronger Range. I thought out this flop in terms of my opponent at best probably has one pair JJ-KK as I block TT and AA. There is also a fraction of the time he has 99. Whereas when I CR the flop, I could have all the sets and the Ax combos that could include an over like AKcc, AQcc, AJcc or flush+straight draws like 7c8c. Therefore this flop is a perfect opportunity to balance bluff CR and CR for value as I will have almost the same number of combinations of each.

The problem I had was my range got narrowed down a bit farther than usual probsbly due to the fact I was card dead and had a tighter image than 99% of the time I play. Either way though I believe his 3 bet PF vs a tighter range is crazy and then calling flop/turn aggression was optimistic at best.

I can live with the results knowing the 3rd barrel gets through most times. However it does make me wonder wtf his plan for the hand was after calling the flop if the turn was a 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, T, J, Q, K, A or any club.

One of the stranger hands I've played in a while. Hope you enjoyed it as much as I've enjoyed reading everyone's analysis.
 
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